A Trip South (for work)

While the country while building tension around Election Day, I was down in Austin, Texas for the Tableau Conference via my employer. It was quite the full week.

Monday, I came to the Austin Convention Center to register and got comfortable.

Monday evening, Tableau hosted me and my bosses (VP and Manager) to a dinner at Fogo. I don't think I'll ever turn that down.

Yes, I did participate in much learning through presentation and technical hands-on training.

But I will say we were treated well, perhaps even sweetly...

Tableau also provided opportunities for social events.  I just went for the food and went back to the hotel.

The Conference ended Thursday afternoon. With the result of the election, how apropos was it that Bill Nye, the Science Guy, provided the final Keynote address.  The speech started off well....

Until he alluded to the election as "the end of the world."  He then went on to talk about how humans are responsible for climate change and how "climate change deniers" are scary folks.  Frankly, it didn't have much to do with analytics once he started.  The speech just turned into a political meltdown regarding the election, which did amuse me.

Right after the Conference, I decided to head 15 minutes up the street to one of my favorite activities when I'm in state capitols, visit the State Capitol. 

On Friday, I took the day going up to the University of Texas.

On the University of Texas campus is the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library.  Since it was Veterans Day, admission was free to tour the museum portion.  Yes, it was worth every penny.

Touring through LBJ, I really came to realize how activist an Administration President Johnson ran.  Not only was he a FDR Socialist with his advocation of building new Cabinet departments (Housing and Urban Development) and entitlement programs (Medicare, Medicaid) through his Great Society programs, but he was quite the neoconservative as seen through the Vietnam War.  He also enacted laws regarding voting rights and gun control. He was no doubt a paradigm changing figure during his Presidency.  

So I took a picture of a replica of the Oval Office at the Library/Museum.

So as left the building, I ran into a gallery of Presidents and First Ladies.  I saw them all and it was well done, but my final memory was seeing this..

As the past held, the future portends... 

(I wonder what Donald and Melania Trump's portraits will look like).

Election Musings: Yes, It's Finally Over!

Ok, I admit my election prediction was off.  As an analyst, I generally trust the numbers I see and that means the polls.  Well, the polls were generally skewed very slightly in favor of Hillary leading up to the election.  So the quantitative instinct in me overrode my gut instinct, which was illustrated in my past post.

The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states. What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012. Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary. In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points. However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald. So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012. What does that mean? The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.

- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide). I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election). That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points. So what am I saying? Buckle up folks! It could be a long Election Day evening.

I regret not listening more to my gut instinct in making my prediction, because what effectively happened was that Donald was effectively able to manipulate the electorate that was six million votes smaller, more white, less black and more Evangelical than Obama's 2012 victory year.  In addition, the Donald was able to effectively tie or do slightly better than Mitt Romney or John McCain share of minority and gender specific vote, while Hillary did slightly worse amongst those groups.  

However, and most surprisedly, the Donald earned the greatest share of Evangelical votes ever in the Pew Research polls history, beating Hillary 81%-16%.  Yes folks, that's better than what George W Bush did in 2004 (78%).  Additionally, the Donald won military members/veteran s by a 61%-34% margin, a bigger spread spread (+27%), than Romney ('12) (+20%), McCain (a former POW) ('08) (+10%) and GWB ('04) (+16%).

The Donald was able to create his victory by increasing his share among blue-collar voters. This tweet shows the magnitude of the Donald's success in this area:

The Donald's popularity with blue-collar voters is something I sensed very early in his campaign.  Here's an excerpt I saw from a post from March of this year:

Many in the "establishment" appear vexed about how the Donald is doing so well. It's quite simple for me to understand. The Donald has proved adept at simplifying issues and getting the electorate passionate about them, specifically immigration, trade with China and overall dissatisfaction with the status quo......

However, the Donald is able to get voters passionate about issues in a way that make his supporters quite loyal to him. Additionally, the Donald is perfect rebellion candidate. Tired of political correctness? There's no question the Donald is politically incorrect. Tired of the old leadership in DC that gave us Iraq, Katrina, the 2008 Great Recession and Obamacare? The Donald rails against Iraq, incompetent leadership and Obamacare. The Donald simply knows how focus voters attitudes towards simple concepts.

Growing up working 12-16 days in my family restaurant and still working in one on a periodic basis has been a real benefit for me in analyzing this election.  This experience has been especially helpful being a white collar professional with multiple graduate degrees.  There is simply a cultural divide between blue collar Americans working in areas such as construction and small businesses who want folks to be blunt and straightforward with them and white collar Americans such lawyers, businessman and office professionals who try to think they understand things at a "deeper level."  I could sense it whenever I would go back to work at the Golden Inn in Superior,WI and talk to patrons that they simply didn't trust Hillary and respected the Donald's bluntness.  I don't think Superior was the only area in the country that felt that way.

So the result at end of the road is that the Donald has been the most successful GOP Presidential candidate in decades, winning a probable 306 electoral votes, the most a GOP candidate has earned since George HW Bush's 426 EV wipeout in 1988.  But the NY Times summed it up best:

But even before a somber Mrs. Clinton delivered her concession speech on Wednesday, the Democratic Party was roiled by recriminations over why so many of its leaders had overlooked her flaws: those of a lackluster candidate who had been battered during decades in public life and had long struggled to appeal to white, working-class voters.

Many thought this election would leave the Republican Party reeling and divided. Instead, with Mrs. Clinton’s loss, it was the Democrats who found themselves bereft of high-profile leaders, relegated to the sidelines of power in Washington and bracing for arguments over their party’s philosophy and mission.

So GOP is in the strongest position they have been since before the Great Depression, with the GOP controlling all levels of government.  Elections have consequences:

- The Supreme Court will likely remain in conservative control for the foreseeable future.  In addition, the lower federal courts will receive an influx of conservative talent.

- A conservative agenda that includes repealing/replacing Obamacare, tax reform, business friendly regulations and expansion of gun rights is very likely.  Perhaps some immigration reform as well.

-The Obama Legacy will be pretty much wiped out.  Outside of legalized same-sex marriage, I don't know anything of the Obama legacy that is off limits.  The President's Legacy right now looks to be largely confined to his new library in Chicago.  We'll wait and see, of course.

So this election is over and it's time to move on.  I just hope everyone respects the authority of our leaders, for they are the leaders that we deserve.  But for the foreseeable future I'm going to be taking a break from politics on this space, for we all need a timeout.  Have a great one!

Election 2016 Final Prediction

It's been a long campaign and it'll shortly be over.  Here's my final Electoral College map.

Senate

50/50

House

230/205 GOP/Dem

For election night, I say you get some popcorn and enjoy the results.  I will be enjoying the following from South Carolina.

In the end, we will get the government we deserve.  So enjoy your evening and I appreciate your comments and support.

Election Musings

Down the stretch they come....

We're a couple days from election day and we really don't have a great idea on what's going to happen.  I really have just noticed a couple things though.

- The Donald over the past three weeks has become a much more disciplined campaigner.  He's focused on the issues of corruption, Obamacare and the need for change.  This has given the electorate a chance to focus more on Hillary than on him.  It has also allowed many GOPers who were hesitant to support him, especially after the Access Hollywood video, to "come home" as they see him as the only thing between Hillary alleged cronyism and corruption and doing real harm to the country.   He's been energized on the stump and expanding the map of where he's campaigning.  As of this moment he's giving a speech to folks Minneapolis-based Sun Country's airport hanger in front of thousands of folks expanding outside the hanger.  It has all the feel of a surging campaign.

In contrast, Hillary has lately been gong to states that have long been Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Pennsylvania largely talking about how terrible a person the Donald is.  Not exactly the rhetoric of a campaign trying to inspire folks to vote for her rather than enrage folks to vote against Donald.

- The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states.  What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012.  Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary.  In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points.  However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald.  So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012.  What does that mean?  The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.

- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide).  I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election).  That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points.  So what am I saying?  Buckle up folks!  It could be a long Election Day evening.

Tomorrow I'll give my final predictions for the Presidency and Congress.  But I have to say this long road is has been entertaining, agonizing and insightful in a view of our society. We will get the government we deserve.

South Carolina... Memorable

This past weekend I was in South Carolina to visit friends and to get away from the office. It was a great weekend of relaxation, fun and fellowship.

I arrived in Greenville, South Carolina on Friday, picked up my rental car and drove to Camden, a town about 40 minutes outside Columbia.  I was visiting a good friend of mine and it was great fellowship of not just him but his dog also.  I guess my friend's dog felt quite relaxed around me.

On Saturday, my friend and I spent the day doing something many in the South enjoy, watch football.  We traveled down to Columbia to watch the Tennessee vs. South Carolina football game.  I'll just say the energy behind watching SEC football (division where both teams play) is much higher than anything I've experienced (outside of watching the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs win the National Title :) ).

On Sunday, I left one friend to meet a few others back in Greenville.  A very nice city which I really didn't see much of in this trip.  I went to church there and was able to take a walk in the park.

On my way back to the airport on Monday, I was able to spend a little time at Bob Jones University touring the Jerusalem Room, which is a local replica of the one in Westminster Abby in London.  In the Jerusalem Room, it's a small exhibit of the history of Bible, emphasis on the King James Version, which I read regularly.  It was well put together.

Great hosts, great weather and great places to go and see made this an A+ weekend.  My only regret is there are so many things I wasn't able to see.  I guess I'll have to come back.....

Election Musings

I'm currently in the middle of a busy time for me.  Over the next month, I'll be traveling for 14 of them, including on Election Day.  So I got a few musings:

- I have to say that the reaction to my last post regarding my decision of who to vote for was much more respectful that it was 4 years ago when I voted for Gary Johnson.  I suspect at least a few of those who said I was wasting my vote in 2012 went ahead this year and did what I encouraged everyone to do in 2012...vote your strongest preference, even if they are not on the ballot.  As Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan would say... the Times are a Changin'.

- So what do I think where the race is right now?  There's a dichotomy between what my mind says and what I see.  What my mind says is that Hillary is well on her way to a landslide victory of Obama 2008 proportions.  I think she's effectively been able to define the Donald to the broader public as a man who does not have the sensitivity, judgment and temperament to lead the Free World.  The Donald hasn't exactly helped himself either by easily diverted from a consistent, disciplined message on the issues by extensively trying to defend himself against vituperative charges on his character.  

However, what I see is much different.  When I talk to many of those from my church and whatnot, the Donald is crude man who fits much of the characterization that Hillary has effectively defined him.  There's a real struggle for many of them in choosing who to support, certainly not enthusiastically support for either Hillary or the Donald in those circles.  However, when I travel outside that circle, mainly to NE Minnesota, the attitude changes.  It pretty much is defined by a conversation I had with my mother over breakfast last week.  My mom is one that only has voted in one election in her life and certainly is not motivated to vote in this one.  But in her blunt style, she said that "Hillary is a liar. Donald is excessively honest on what he thinks."  That's pretty much what I hear when I talk to folks up there: Neither of them are saints, but at least Donald will tell you what he thinks and that we can trust.  As I drive around in the Twin Ports area, I was surprised by how many Trump signs I saw posted up there.  Many more than Hillary ones for sure.  So it wasn't a surprise to me when I recently saw this news:

Also in MN 8th District, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 35%.

— Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) October 24, 2016

Another tidbit was today I was eating dinner at the Olive Garden when I overheard a conversation of a geriatric couple sitting at a table next to me talking about the election. They basically said that Hillary was a criminal and that the Donald is getting the short end of the stick from the media.  They were wondering if Hillary could be impeached if she was elected for the crimes she allegedly committed.  Interesting conversations I hear about when I eat alone.

Those tidbits and the sight of the size and energy of the Donald's rallies make me think that his base is very enthused and will definitely vote.  However, this is a Presidential election, not a midterm.  Unless the Donald brings in many voters who haven't voted before, I just don't see him winning this point.  But we have seen many strange things in this election, haven't we?

Here's my current map, based on my head knowledge:

It's interesting times, don't you think?

My Decision 2016

Last Friday, I took a half day off to fulfill several civic duties. I paid my property taxes, renewed my drivers license and, alas, went and cast my vote in Election 2016.  

Minnesota now allows voters to vote early absentee without a rationale.  However, I will be out of state on Election Day, so that didn't really matter to me.  I was surprised to see that outside of the Federal and legislative races, there was a lack of races to vote in this year.  What also surprised me is how busy the polling place is as I saw a steady flow of folks fill out absentee applications and ballots.   But the decision has been made and here is my rationale and my decision.

Taxes - My personal view on taxes is very simple, it should efficiently collect revenue and not distort personal decisions.  Hence I would favor a tax system that eliminates most deductions, provides credits accessible to everyone for items such as charity and home ownerships, provide fewer income tax brackets (3 or fewer) at low rates and taxes consumption at a low rate.  Such a system would efficiently collect revenue, provide fairness through the tax brackets and encourage savings.  I say this would be the area where the Donald's most in line with my thinking since he's eliminating deductions on items such as carried interest (which hedge fund managers gain much income from) and lowering tax rates across the board.  So mark this one in favor for the Donald.

Abortion - I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  The Donald has run as a pro-life candidate.  He's campaigned as only permitting abortion in cases of rape and incest.  It sounds like a reasonable position to many, but like I said, I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  I recall a speech by a lady while I was in high school talking about the dangers of domestic violence, including rape.  My fellow students were just droning off this lady speaking to us wasting our time.  That was until near the end of her talk when she talked about the dangers rape and resulting pregnancies from it.  She then said, "I'm a child of rape."  Well, that changed the mood in the auditorium, as well as caught my attention.  She talked about how much love it takes for a rape victim to have a child and give it up for adoption.  That solidified my view that all life has some value, even in times of rape and incest.  This is where I disagree with the Donald.  However, if specific states have a different view, they are free to enforce that, but I do not agree that legal abortion should be allowed at the federal level. 

Trade - I admit it, I believe in open, global markets.  I think free trade in general is a good thing.  It allows us to control inflationary pressures, encourages innovation and increases competition, which I believe promotes growth.  Hillary positions on trade apparently depends on political gains she can get from it, so she's not credible on that issue.  The Donald has gone protectionist on this issue.  Saying that he'll renegotiate trade deals and will enact tariffs for companies that leave the country and try to sell them back into the country.  I'm generally against retaliatory tariffs because it creates incentives for a trade war which raises the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliate, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations.  These are things that accelerated the onset of the Great Depression if not cause it.  

The Donald also talks about losing jobs as outsourcing occurs.  Well, I would argue that most of the job losses occur come due to the innovations that occur through competition, which displaces folks in inefficient industries and creating jobs in efficient industries such as technology and services.  The idea that keeping companies here by itself will save jobs is incomplete since it doesn't take into account the cost of production and the shrinkage or inputs available in more efficient industries that could increase standards of living and higher wages.  

The Donald also talks about huge trade deficits hurting America.  I disagree with that view. A trade deficit is not debt so much as foreigners spending more money in America than America spending in foreign lands.  So in my mind this "trade deficit" is a "capital account surplus"  of money and goods invested into America.  This investment means expansion of existing businesses, more new businesses, higher worker productivity, and more output enhancing activities, such as research and development, all of which increase prosperity.

Immigration - I think the security of this country is important and that immigration policy is central to it.  However, as a child of immigrants, I am sensitive to those who are against very restrictive border controls.  My belief is this, there should be a utmost emphasis on enforcement and controlling our borders against terrorists, refugees from terrorist states and excessive low-skilled labor.  However, I believe once the borders have been controlled, we should have clear set of criteria of who we grant citizenship.  The Donald is strong on the enforcement side, but vague on the citizenship side outside of "extreme vetting."  So I basically see this a cake with a doughy middle.

Foreign policy - I admit I used to be an global interventionist on foreign policy.  That was until my sister was sent to Iraq and I paid closer attention to it and how it was run so badly.  I'm now the opposite, a Realpolitik non-interventionist who sees relations as driven by what's in America's best interest. I am not confident that our government can conduct military offenses like Iraq correctly, so let's hold back on military intervention until we are certain not doing so directly harms American interests.

So these are the main issues that I weighed going into my decision.  While I have great respect for many of the positions the Donald has in these areas, I really am bothered by his trade rhetoric because it so much distorts the economic effects of free trade.  I am convinced that if such policies were enacted, it would really have detrimental economic effects on this country in higher input costs and lower standards of living due to lack of innovation and productivity.  Therefore, I couldn't vote for the Donald.   I also of the thought everyone should vote their strongest preference because their individual vote has a marginal difference and we should vote for someone we have the strongest belief in.  In 2012 that man was Gary Johnson.  However, 2016 Gary is much more liberal, especially on social issue, than 2012 Gary, so I could not vote for him.  Since I decided that should vote for someone on the ballot in the Presidential election, I decided to vote for the Constitutional Party candidate, Darrell Castle.   

I recall much ridicule in 2012 for announcing my vote publicly, but I am not holding back.  Please make your own decision based on your strongest preference.  It is privilege that you should be honored to exercise.