Nevada (R) and South Carolina (D) Predictions

This race just keeps on going with strange twists and turns.  Good news for me is that I was correct about the order of the South Carolina GOP race.  Bad news for me is that I didn't foresee how barking in public can endear a candidate with the Democratic electorate.  So I guess I'll try to do better this time.

South Carolina (D)

I admit it, after I watched Hillary Clinton bark like a dog at a campaign rally, I was feeling the Bern.  I was wrong about judging the Democratic electorate in Nevada at least.  But I have no doubt that in South Carolina Hillary will surely roll to victory.  A senator from Vermont just doesn't play well in a southern state with a large African-American population.  Clinton, with a big "firewall" win in Nevada, will keep the momentum going and unlike what Bernie Sanders says, the wind is really at her back.

Nevada (R)

South Carolina was a "Yuge" victory for the Donald, who continues to display shrewd political skills I did not know he had in his ability to focus on, simplify and get folks emotional about specific issues or matters (Immigration, trade with China, taking on the Pope in a Protestant state, anger at status quo, etc.) to roll to yet another victory.  Don't believe me, just watch:

So now the Donald goes into Nevada, a state where his background as a casino owner and local business owner (he owns a hotel in Las Vegas) should play quite well.  The only question is will his lack of a ground game cost him votes in a caucus situation and who will come second to position themselves to be the prized alternative to the Donald.  As of now it looks to me that Ted Cruz's base is too narrow (Christian evangelicals) and he's not exactly doing very strong with them (he had fewer votes than the Donald) and Rubio is quickly gaining support from establishment  Republicans.  As the worm turns, stay tuned.

The order:

The Donald
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
Carson

Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions

So there have been two contests in two states and two very different results.  The idea of a quick an orderly nominee selection process for the two major parties appears less certain by the week.  Alas, here are my predictions for Saturday's contests

Nevada (Democrats):

Many things have changed in the past eight years, but one thing remains the same:  Hillary Clinton is a terrible Presidential candidate.  Instead of having great difficulty with a first-term senator who's motto was "Change you can Believe In,"  Clinton is having great difficulty with a 74-year self-declared socialist whose motto is "A Future you can Believe In."  After getting whipped in New Hampshire, Clinton and Bernie Sanders are neck-and-neck in Nevada.  To illustrate Clinton's difficulties, one only needs to see this video:

After seeing moments like this, I am feeling the Bern... Bernie wins Nevada.

South Carolina (Republicans):

Another South Carolina primary, another bloodbath of political rhetoric.  Accusations of lies between the candidates and former President George W. Bush, photoshop pictures, lawsuit accusations, etc.  But this race can be defined by three things: 

1) The Donald's ability/inability to proper temperament in the political pressure cooker;
2) Ted Cruz's attempts to accuse his opponents as inauthentic conservatives, true or not;
3) Marco Rubio's sudden surge in momentum, boosted by the political decline of Jeb Bush and the endorsement of SC Gov. Nikki Haley.

So with those things noted, it should also be noted that the Donald has had a substantial lead in the polls all week until the last day or so (in some polls).  Here's how I see this race ending up:

Trump (by less than 7 pts)
Rubio
Cruz
Bush
Kasich
Carson

After this evening, there'll be great pressure for Carson and Bush to exit stage right.

As the Donald may say:

My New Hampshire Primary Predictions

So my Iowa caucus predictions were about 60 percent correct (be kind).  I guess I'll give my shot at New Hampshire.

Democrats:

Sanders by less than 10 percent

I just find it odd after all these years where the GOP was know for have old white men as their nominee that this time one around the Democrats will have a nominee that is already eligible for Social Security at full retirement age. However, that's what we have. I predict Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire by less than 10 percent, which Hillary will frame as a win since she has been projected to lose by 15 plus percentage points for much of the race.  It's all about perception.

Republicans:

Trump/Kasich/Rubio

The Donald, despite all the moments of perceived crassness (cussing at rallies and not showing much meekness in dealing with Jeb Bush's charges of the Donald's abuses of eminent domain, will win the primary by a clear margin and leave New Hampshire with the momentum.  Marco Rubio, who had momentum through his performance in Iowa, has taking on water for appearing overly coached in repeating his answers regarding President Obama's foreign policy.  I find that interesting that a Republican is being criticized for repeating his answers because the last Republican President was well known for repeating his answers quite often ("You are with us or you are with the terrorists", "the soft bigotry of low expectations", etc.).  He looked well positioned to take 2nd before Saturday night's debate, but I'm thinking John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, helped himself the most from the debate and put in much more time than pretty any other remaining contender in the state.  So Kasich will come out with some momentum as well while Rubio will be wounded, but not as badly as many think he is.  I will say Bush and Cruz will finish close together for 4th while the rest of the field (Ben Carson, Chris Christie, et al.) will have to really consider how much longer they will stay in this race.

So in short, here's what I think will happen in the GOP primary tomorrow night:

Click for Video