Friday, February 19, 2016

Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions

So there have been two contests in two states and two very different results.  The idea of a quick an orderly nominee selection process for the two major parties appears less certain by the week.  Alas, here are my predictions for Saturday's contests

Nevada (Democrats):

Many things have changed in the past eight years, but one thing remains the same:  Hillary Clinton is a terrible Presidential candidate.  Instead of having great difficulty with a first-term senator who's motto was "Change you can Believe In,"  Clinton is having great difficulty with a 74-year self-declared socialist whose motto is "A Future you can Believe In."  After getting whipped in New Hampshire, Clinton and Bernie Sanders are neck-and-neck in Nevada.  To illustrate Clinton's difficulties, one only needs to see this video:



After seeing moments like this, I am feeling the Bern... Bernie wins Nevada.

South Carolina (Republicans):

Another South Carolina primary, another bloodbath of political rhetoric.  Accusations of lies between the candidates and former President George W. Bush, photoshop pictures, lawsuit accusations, etc.  But this race can be defined by three things: 

1) The Donald's ability/inability to proper temperament in the political pressure cooker;
2) Ted Cruz's attempts to accuse his opponents as inauthentic conservatives, true or not;
3) Marco Rubio's sudden surge in momentum, boosted by the political decline of Jeb Bush and the endorsement of SC Gov. Nikki Haley.

So with those things noted, it should also be noted that the Donald has had a substantial lead in the polls all week until the last day or so (in some polls).  Here's how I see this race ending up:

Trump (by less than 7 pts)
Rubio
Cruz
Bush
Kasich
Carson

After this evening, there'll be great pressure for Carson and Bush to exit stage right.

As the Donald may say:



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