Monday, February 22, 2016

Nevada (R) and South Carolina (D) Predictions

This race just keeps on going with strange twists and turns.  Good news for me is that I was correct about the order of the South Carolina GOP race.  Bad news for me is that I didn't foresee how barking in public can endear a candidate with the Democratic electorate.  So I guess I'll try to do better this time.

South Carolina (D)

I admit it, after I watched Hillary Clinton bark like a dog at a campaign rally, I was feeling the Bern.  I was wrong about judging the Democratic electorate in Nevada at least.  But I have no doubt that in South Carolina Hillary will surely roll to victory.  A senator from Vermont just doesn't play well in a southern state with a large African-American population.  Clinton, with a big "firewall" win in Nevada, will keep the momentum going and unlike what Bernie Sanders says, the wind is really at her back.

Nevada (R)

South Carolina was a "Yuge" victory for the Donald, who continues to display shrewd political skills I did not know he had in his ability to focus on, simplify and get folks emotional about specific issues or matters (Immigration, trade with China, taking on the Pope in a Protestant state, anger at status quo, etc.) to roll to yet another victory.  Don't believe me, just watch:



So now the Donald goes into Nevada, a state where his background as a casino owner and local business owner (he owns a hotel in Las Vegas) should play quite well.  The only question is will his lack of a ground game cost him votes in a caucus situation and who will come second to position themselves to be the prized alternative to the Donald.  As of now it looks to me that Ted Cruz's base is too narrow (Christian evangelicals) and he's not exactly doing very strong with them (he had fewer votes than the Donald) and Rubio is quickly gaining support from establishment  Republicans.  As the worm turns, stay tuned.

The order:

The Donald
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
Carson


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