Election Musings

I'm currently in the middle of a busy time for me.  Over the next month, I'll be traveling for 14 of them, including on Election Day.  So I got a few musings:

- I have to say that the reaction to my last post regarding my decision of who to vote for was much more respectful that it was 4 years ago when I voted for Gary Johnson.  I suspect at least a few of those who said I was wasting my vote in 2012 went ahead this year and did what I encouraged everyone to do in 2012...vote your strongest preference, even if they are not on the ballot.  As Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan would say... the Times are a Changin'.

- So what do I think where the race is right now?  There's a dichotomy between what my mind says and what I see.  What my mind says is that Hillary is well on her way to a landslide victory of Obama 2008 proportions.  I think she's effectively been able to define the Donald to the broader public as a man who does not have the sensitivity, judgment and temperament to lead the Free World.  The Donald hasn't exactly helped himself either by easily diverted from a consistent, disciplined message on the issues by extensively trying to defend himself against vituperative charges on his character.  

However, what I see is much different.  When I talk to many of those from my church and whatnot, the Donald is crude man who fits much of the characterization that Hillary has effectively defined him.  There's a real struggle for many of them in choosing who to support, certainly not enthusiastically support for either Hillary or the Donald in those circles.  However, when I travel outside that circle, mainly to NE Minnesota, the attitude changes.  It pretty much is defined by a conversation I had with my mother over breakfast last week.  My mom is one that only has voted in one election in her life and certainly is not motivated to vote in this one.  But in her blunt style, she said that "Hillary is a liar. Donald is excessively honest on what he thinks."  That's pretty much what I hear when I talk to folks up there: Neither of them are saints, but at least Donald will tell you what he thinks and that we can trust.  As I drive around in the Twin Ports area, I was surprised by how many Trump signs I saw posted up there.  Many more than Hillary ones for sure.  So it wasn't a surprise to me when I recently saw this news:

Also in MN 8th District, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 35%.

— Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) October 24, 2016

Another tidbit was today I was eating dinner at the Olive Garden when I overheard a conversation of a geriatric couple sitting at a table next to me talking about the election. They basically said that Hillary was a criminal and that the Donald is getting the short end of the stick from the media.  They were wondering if Hillary could be impeached if she was elected for the crimes she allegedly committed.  Interesting conversations I hear about when I eat alone.

Those tidbits and the sight of the size and energy of the Donald's rallies make me think that his base is very enthused and will definitely vote.  However, this is a Presidential election, not a midterm.  Unless the Donald brings in many voters who haven't voted before, I just don't see him winning this point.  But we have seen many strange things in this election, haven't we?

Here's my current map, based on my head knowledge:

It's interesting times, don't you think?

My Decision 2016

Last Friday, I took a half day off to fulfill several civic duties. I paid my property taxes, renewed my drivers license and, alas, went and cast my vote in Election 2016.  

Minnesota now allows voters to vote early absentee without a rationale.  However, I will be out of state on Election Day, so that didn't really matter to me.  I was surprised to see that outside of the Federal and legislative races, there was a lack of races to vote in this year.  What also surprised me is how busy the polling place is as I saw a steady flow of folks fill out absentee applications and ballots.   But the decision has been made and here is my rationale and my decision.

Taxes - My personal view on taxes is very simple, it should efficiently collect revenue and not distort personal decisions.  Hence I would favor a tax system that eliminates most deductions, provides credits accessible to everyone for items such as charity and home ownerships, provide fewer income tax brackets (3 or fewer) at low rates and taxes consumption at a low rate.  Such a system would efficiently collect revenue, provide fairness through the tax brackets and encourage savings.  I say this would be the area where the Donald's most in line with my thinking since he's eliminating deductions on items such as carried interest (which hedge fund managers gain much income from) and lowering tax rates across the board.  So mark this one in favor for the Donald.

Abortion - I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  The Donald has run as a pro-life candidate.  He's campaigned as only permitting abortion in cases of rape and incest.  It sounds like a reasonable position to many, but like I said, I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  I recall a speech by a lady while I was in high school talking about the dangers of domestic violence, including rape.  My fellow students were just droning off this lady speaking to us wasting our time.  That was until near the end of her talk when she talked about the dangers rape and resulting pregnancies from it.  She then said, "I'm a child of rape."  Well, that changed the mood in the auditorium, as well as caught my attention.  She talked about how much love it takes for a rape victim to have a child and give it up for adoption.  That solidified my view that all life has some value, even in times of rape and incest.  This is where I disagree with the Donald.  However, if specific states have a different view, they are free to enforce that, but I do not agree that legal abortion should be allowed at the federal level. 

Trade - I admit it, I believe in open, global markets.  I think free trade in general is a good thing.  It allows us to control inflationary pressures, encourages innovation and increases competition, which I believe promotes growth.  Hillary positions on trade apparently depends on political gains she can get from it, so she's not credible on that issue.  The Donald has gone protectionist on this issue.  Saying that he'll renegotiate trade deals and will enact tariffs for companies that leave the country and try to sell them back into the country.  I'm generally against retaliatory tariffs because it creates incentives for a trade war which raises the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliate, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations.  These are things that accelerated the onset of the Great Depression if not cause it.  

The Donald also talks about losing jobs as outsourcing occurs.  Well, I would argue that most of the job losses occur come due to the innovations that occur through competition, which displaces folks in inefficient industries and creating jobs in efficient industries such as technology and services.  The idea that keeping companies here by itself will save jobs is incomplete since it doesn't take into account the cost of production and the shrinkage or inputs available in more efficient industries that could increase standards of living and higher wages.  

The Donald also talks about huge trade deficits hurting America.  I disagree with that view. A trade deficit is not debt so much as foreigners spending more money in America than America spending in foreign lands.  So in my mind this "trade deficit" is a "capital account surplus"  of money and goods invested into America.  This investment means expansion of existing businesses, more new businesses, higher worker productivity, and more output enhancing activities, such as research and development, all of which increase prosperity.

Immigration - I think the security of this country is important and that immigration policy is central to it.  However, as a child of immigrants, I am sensitive to those who are against very restrictive border controls.  My belief is this, there should be a utmost emphasis on enforcement and controlling our borders against terrorists, refugees from terrorist states and excessive low-skilled labor.  However, I believe once the borders have been controlled, we should have clear set of criteria of who we grant citizenship.  The Donald is strong on the enforcement side, but vague on the citizenship side outside of "extreme vetting."  So I basically see this a cake with a doughy middle.

Foreign policy - I admit I used to be an global interventionist on foreign policy.  That was until my sister was sent to Iraq and I paid closer attention to it and how it was run so badly.  I'm now the opposite, a Realpolitik non-interventionist who sees relations as driven by what's in America's best interest. I am not confident that our government can conduct military offenses like Iraq correctly, so let's hold back on military intervention until we are certain not doing so directly harms American interests.

So these are the main issues that I weighed going into my decision.  While I have great respect for many of the positions the Donald has in these areas, I really am bothered by his trade rhetoric because it so much distorts the economic effects of free trade.  I am convinced that if such policies were enacted, it would really have detrimental economic effects on this country in higher input costs and lower standards of living due to lack of innovation and productivity.  Therefore, I couldn't vote for the Donald.   I also of the thought everyone should vote their strongest preference because their individual vote has a marginal difference and we should vote for someone we have the strongest belief in.  In 2012 that man was Gary Johnson.  However, 2016 Gary is much more liberal, especially on social issue, than 2012 Gary, so I could not vote for him.  Since I decided that should vote for someone on the ballot in the Presidential election, I decided to vote for the Constitutional Party candidate, Darrell Castle.   

I recall much ridicule in 2012 for announcing my vote publicly, but I am not holding back.  Please make your own decision based on your strongest preference.  It is privilege that you should be honored to exercise.

Second Presidential Debate Reaction

So debate number two in the books, some quick thoughts:

- It's clear to me that the Donald has decided since many in the media and even the GOP leadership have become hostile to him, that he'll run his campaign the way he likes it: the Donald vs. the Machine (e.g. the media and the Establishment).  Throw out all the rules of common discourse and normal campaign tactics.  In short, the Donald says "Bring it on!"  

- The Donald, in that vein, was quite effective in persecuting his case against Hillary.  Everyone knew that he had to answer the question regarding the lewd comments in the 2005 Access Hollywood video.  He effectively quickly deflected it by apologizing and pivoting to all the issues that dog Hillary such as her emails, Benghazi, the rise of ISIS and her untrustworthiness.  He also set up his defense by trolling the media to attend a press conference where alleged victims of Bill and Hillary, which took away from the effectiveness of Hillary taking the moral women high ground.  How do I know, look at this picture:

That's just Bill, it also looked to me that during the debate that Hillary did not look as on her game as she did in the first debate.

- Hillary was much more defensive through much of this debate.  Apparently she does not do well in town hall formats for she does not connect well personally with voters and is much more likely to act defensively when a hostile question comes her way.  Many times the best she could do was give a smile or smirk.  However, perhaps it's just me, but whenever she did that her excessive lipstick really made that smile/smirk seemed forced. The Donald did much to keep on the defensive through aptly pivoting every question about him into an attack on her.

- In short, I think the Donald did what he had to: stabilize  his own campaign and start changing the narrative away from focusing on him and more on Hillary.  However, he still has a long way to go if he's going to win this race.  His performance has enthused his base, which is quite important right now.  However, I'm starting to think that his best shot to win this race is not to convince swing voters to vote for him so much as getting folks who haven't voted before so fired up about Hillary's political opportunism, ambition and acts of corruption that they will show up to the polls.  Such a strategy was key to the success of Brexit where Britain voted itself out of the European Union, defying the political polls.  

- I would like to note that the polls currently on average have the Donald behind by 5 or more points.  Many of the Donald's supporters say that the polls are unreasonably skewed favorably to voters favorable to Hillary.  I'm of the view that the polls are generally accurate for the folks they sample.  Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic, so it can change over time.  The polls were generally right in 2012, 2008 and 2004.  So unless they are proven wrong, we should consider an average of them that use rigorous scientific methods.

- Finally, the time has come for me to make a decision.  On Friday, October 14, I will head down to cast my vote.  I will let you know who I voted for and my reasons after I cast my decision.

Election Musings

Quite the week huh?

- Friday was quite the news dump.  One was the Wikileaks dump of alleged John Podesta (Hillary's campaign chairman) emails that hold large excerpts of Hillary's Wall Street speeches.  The basic story here is that Hillary speaks to the audience in regards to what gives her the greatest personal gain.  She'll say in public that we're vetting refugees well enough to keep out jihadist but tell a private audience that such a thing is impossible.  Signs of what folks think of Hillary: untrustworthy and politically ambitious for power.  It's pretty revealing stuff, in my myopic opinion.

The other news is an Access Hollywood video of the Donald on a 'hot mic' making lewd comments about women, how he'd lusts after them and grope them. Such action is abominable behavior in every sense of decency.  But like Hillary, it just ratifies what many think of the Donald: a man who speaks his mind, many times out of the bounds of decent behavior.  It's a big reason why both candidates are so unpopular.  

The main difference between the news dumps is that most of the media's attention is on the Donald's comments.  I think largely due to two things: (1) folks are instinctively interested to talk or hear about about carnal things (whether they admit it or not) and; (2) GOP politicians and machinery has been quoted of jumping ship from the Donald.  It's the way our society and culture sees things, as hypocritical as perhaps many of those behaviors are to the critics who bring them up.

So how does this change the race?  Well, it'll just much nastier.  I think initially the Donald will lose support, but the news cycle moves so quickly that this may in fact be a short term story.  In fact, we're shortly going to have a couple more debates and a whole bunch of new revelations I'm quite confident will happen.  So I'm thinking that Hilary has a 90% chance of winning, perhaps in a landslide.  But if we know anything about the Donald, it's that he's pretty effective when he's underestimated.

A few changes in my map to demonstrate a shift towards Hillary in a couple swing states, but we still have a month till election day.

 

Trip with Mom - North of the Border

This time last week I was north of the border, in Toronto, going a short trip with my mother.  Toronto was the last trip my family went on together, about 30 years ago when I was about 8 years old.  Much has happened since then, specifically my family has gotten smaller (my sister Becky and my father died).  So I thought this would be a good time to revisit old memories and enjoy the city with the one of the largest Chinatown in North America.

My mom and I on the plane over:

Once we got to Toronto, we went directly to Chinatown.  Along the streets of Spadina and Dundas:

One thing we did in Chinatown is eat.... A lot!

The following day we went to CN Tower in Downtown Toronto:

Quite the view, 1,400 feet up.

The next day, my mom and I went out to Niagara Falls.  We first stopped at the town of Niagara-on-the-Lake.  It's a sleepy town with neighborhood shops surrounded by vineyards.  Told that residents of the town are quite affluent and that buses are not allowed to drive through town due to environmental concerns.  It's a cozy spot.

It even has a store that sells Christmas items all year:

I found a hotel in town where Queen Elizabeth's mom stayed.  A room there is $900 a night. (Tea and scones were available for $20 though). Above my pay grade, as a famous man said.

Well, we did move on towards Niagara Falls, I decided to stop the bus and take a picture at a Floral Clock along the way...

We did make it to the Falls eventually.

My mother and I took a boat along the edge of the Falls, a horseshoe trip which we got a poncho, but still got very wet.

In short, it was a successful trip.  My mom told me that we should head back to Toronto every year.  I'm grateful to have had this opportunity to spend with her.  These were moments to cherish.  

"I know that there is no good in them, but for a man to rejoice, and to do good in his life. And also that every man should eat and drink, and enjoy the good of all his labour, it is the gift of God." - Ecclesiastes 3:12-13