My Decision 2016

Last Friday, I took a half day off to fulfill several civic duties. I paid my property taxes, renewed my drivers license and, alas, went and cast my vote in Election 2016.  

Minnesota now allows voters to vote early absentee without a rationale.  However, I will be out of state on Election Day, so that didn't really matter to me.  I was surprised to see that outside of the Federal and legislative races, there was a lack of races to vote in this year.  What also surprised me is how busy the polling place is as I saw a steady flow of folks fill out absentee applications and ballots.   But the decision has been made and here is my rationale and my decision.

Taxes - My personal view on taxes is very simple, it should efficiently collect revenue and not distort personal decisions.  Hence I would favor a tax system that eliminates most deductions, provides credits accessible to everyone for items such as charity and home ownerships, provide fewer income tax brackets (3 or fewer) at low rates and taxes consumption at a low rate.  Such a system would efficiently collect revenue, provide fairness through the tax brackets and encourage savings.  I say this would be the area where the Donald's most in line with my thinking since he's eliminating deductions on items such as carried interest (which hedge fund managers gain much income from) and lowering tax rates across the board.  So mark this one in favor for the Donald.

Abortion - I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  The Donald has run as a pro-life candidate.  He's campaigned as only permitting abortion in cases of rape and incest.  It sounds like a reasonable position to many, but like I said, I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  I recall a speech by a lady while I was in high school talking about the dangers of domestic violence, including rape.  My fellow students were just droning off this lady speaking to us wasting our time.  That was until near the end of her talk when she talked about the dangers rape and resulting pregnancies from it.  She then said, "I'm a child of rape."  Well, that changed the mood in the auditorium, as well as caught my attention.  She talked about how much love it takes for a rape victim to have a child and give it up for adoption.  That solidified my view that all life has some value, even in times of rape and incest.  This is where I disagree with the Donald.  However, if specific states have a different view, they are free to enforce that, but I do not agree that legal abortion should be allowed at the federal level. 

Trade - I admit it, I believe in open, global markets.  I think free trade in general is a good thing.  It allows us to control inflationary pressures, encourages innovation and increases competition, which I believe promotes growth.  Hillary positions on trade apparently depends on political gains she can get from it, so she's not credible on that issue.  The Donald has gone protectionist on this issue.  Saying that he'll renegotiate trade deals and will enact tariffs for companies that leave the country and try to sell them back into the country.  I'm generally against retaliatory tariffs because it creates incentives for a trade war which raises the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliate, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations.  These are things that accelerated the onset of the Great Depression if not cause it.  

The Donald also talks about losing jobs as outsourcing occurs.  Well, I would argue that most of the job losses occur come due to the innovations that occur through competition, which displaces folks in inefficient industries and creating jobs in efficient industries such as technology and services.  The idea that keeping companies here by itself will save jobs is incomplete since it doesn't take into account the cost of production and the shrinkage or inputs available in more efficient industries that could increase standards of living and higher wages.  

The Donald also talks about huge trade deficits hurting America.  I disagree with that view. A trade deficit is not debt so much as foreigners spending more money in America than America spending in foreign lands.  So in my mind this "trade deficit" is a "capital account surplus"  of money and goods invested into America.  This investment means expansion of existing businesses, more new businesses, higher worker productivity, and more output enhancing activities, such as research and development, all of which increase prosperity.

Immigration - I think the security of this country is important and that immigration policy is central to it.  However, as a child of immigrants, I am sensitive to those who are against very restrictive border controls.  My belief is this, there should be a utmost emphasis on enforcement and controlling our borders against terrorists, refugees from terrorist states and excessive low-skilled labor.  However, I believe once the borders have been controlled, we should have clear set of criteria of who we grant citizenship.  The Donald is strong on the enforcement side, but vague on the citizenship side outside of "extreme vetting."  So I basically see this a cake with a doughy middle.

Foreign policy - I admit I used to be an global interventionist on foreign policy.  That was until my sister was sent to Iraq and I paid closer attention to it and how it was run so badly.  I'm now the opposite, a Realpolitik non-interventionist who sees relations as driven by what's in America's best interest. I am not confident that our government can conduct military offenses like Iraq correctly, so let's hold back on military intervention until we are certain not doing so directly harms American interests.

So these are the main issues that I weighed going into my decision.  While I have great respect for many of the positions the Donald has in these areas, I really am bothered by his trade rhetoric because it so much distorts the economic effects of free trade.  I am convinced that if such policies were enacted, it would really have detrimental economic effects on this country in higher input costs and lower standards of living due to lack of innovation and productivity.  Therefore, I couldn't vote for the Donald.   I also of the thought everyone should vote their strongest preference because their individual vote has a marginal difference and we should vote for someone we have the strongest belief in.  In 2012 that man was Gary Johnson.  However, 2016 Gary is much more liberal, especially on social issue, than 2012 Gary, so I could not vote for him.  Since I decided that should vote for someone on the ballot in the Presidential election, I decided to vote for the Constitutional Party candidate, Darrell Castle.   

I recall much ridicule in 2012 for announcing my vote publicly, but I am not holding back.  Please make your own decision based on your strongest preference.  It is privilege that you should be honored to exercise.