Sunday, January 31, 2016

My Iowa Caucus Predictions

Here are my Iowa caucus predictions:

Democrats:

Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley

Unless the Democrats start thinking about Clinton's emails question are a significant issue, I think Hillary pulls it out.  Especially since school is in session and college students need to go back home to caucus.


GOP

The Donald/Rubio/Cruz

The Donald supporters are mainly new, emotionally charged, caucus goers and are hard to predict what degree they show up.  But I think enough of them show up for The Donald to claim victory in a tight three way race.  Cruz has taking on water the last 72 hours as he has been exposed as a thin-skinned politician and a political opportunist by Rubio, Rand Paul amongst others. It appears that despite a much weaker canvassing effort, Rubio is gaining momentum, mainly from Cruz and Trump voters.  The Donald may win, but Rubio will have real momentum on his side heading to New Hampshire.  

Ben Carson and Jeb Bush will fight it out for 4th and who cares after that.