Election Musing

This election has taken quite the turn the past couple weeks:

-The Donald, after making notable changes in his campaign staff, has actually decided to remain on a disciplined message over the last couple weeks.  I have to say I'm surprised he's actually been using a teleprompter and sticking mainly to it for the last two weeks.  It's made his message more effective in getting traction against Hillary. However, the way he's delivered the message sounds like one geared to his base support (blue-collar types) and not college-educated types that is keeping down the amount of GOP support for the GOP nominee.  His outreach to minority voters is a good move for him.  However, saying that Hillary is a "bigot" and saying that blacks should vote for him so they don't get shot is language that appeals directly to many blue collar types and not to white collar suburbanites.  Folks say if he gets 12-15% of the black vote he'll win the election.  I agree, however, the highest share of the black vote I ever remember a GOP nominee receiving was about 10%.  So the Donald is absolutely trying to win with a formula outside the box: enthused blue collar white males and disaffected minorities.  We'll see how this works out.

- One thing that is keeping this race from being a typical landslide is that Hillary is very flawed candidate.  Recent revelations of previously unseen emails and possible connection between donating to the Clinton Foundation and access to the Secretary of State's office are just a couple of the new things that really fortify doubts of Hillary's veracity.  That plus Hillary's lack of public availability and simply attacking the Donald's character instead of talking about differences on the issues really leave a golden opportunity for her unfulfilled.  Will it cost her on November 8?

So I've put together a projected electoral map as of today.  Changes will be made as I see fit as the race moves closer to November 8.

Some Down Time

This past week was a bit different for me since I'm in the mist of a three-day "staycation."  At my job I've been there now over a year (I can hear the Bronx cheers, it's ok). Which means I've now have accrued a full year's worth of Paid Time Off (PTO).  So since they limit the amount of PTO an employee can carry year over year, I've decided to take a couple days off this week.  I've done a few things:

Wednesday:

- Morning: Went to boxing workout at 6 am (I've been doing this over the past two plus months, 5 days a week). Went back home, had breakfast and then went to the Upper Landing Park in St Paul to go on a free tour along the riverfront.

The Landmark Center provides free tours of different parts of Saint Paul every Wednesdays between June and September.  I went on the Great River Tour, which goes along the Upper Landing Park riverfront walk talking about the history of the area.  I've learned a few things:

• Saint Paul is named after a log cabin church in 1840
• The east side riverfront was called "Little Italy" at the turn of the 20th century.  It flooded out often and eventually it faded.  However, one of the remnant's of that time that still going strong is the popular Cossetta's restaurant
• Along the Upper Landing park walkway are mounds marking the highest floods in St Paul, both around 50 feet above flood stage.  In short, a whole lot of water.
• West Saint Paul, which is the suburb south of St Paul, is called West Saint Paul because it lies on the "west bank" of the predominately north south Mississippi River.

Afternoon: After the tour, I headed back to the "west side" of the river to attend an analytics conference at the Carlson School at the University of MN.  Yes, I'm an analytics nerd and I'm interested in this stuff.  However, I also met many of my former bosses and colleagues when I worked at Best Buy.  I'm on good terms with all of them and I guess I should keep in better touch with them since they said they think quite highly of me still, a surprise to me.  All in all, a full day of activity, capped off with church.

Thursday: 

Morning: Another 6 am boxing workout followed up by a trip to the dentist.  The dentist experience was efficient, numbing and expensive.  But I needed to get some work done in my mouth.  Knowing that I have two parents who had full sets of dentures, I don't feel to confident in my odontological future.

Afternoon:  After the Novocaine wore off, I took the Green Line and the A Line (i.e. public transport) to the State Fair.

I decided that this needed to be an efficient visit to the Fair, so I decide to go there by myself.  I hit up my regular spots such as the Corn Roast, Swine Barn, the U of M Athletic barn, the Grandstand displays and most importantly the Miracle of Birth Center.  At the Miracle of Birth Center, I basically witnessed a good analogy to how government works:

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Evening:  I took public transport back to my condo building and went to an annual gathering of residents of the building.  I've never attended such an event.  But I was able to spend some time with my fellow neighbors and residents.  It was another full day.

Friday:

In the morning I drove out to Camp Chetek, a Christian camp in Chetek, WI., for an annual weekend retreat for my church.

It was a good day of conversation/teaching/fellowship.  I find this past year since the last time I was Camp Chetek has been a transitional one for me in terms of my attitude in relationships with those around me and with the Almighty.  The day I spent there just illuminated those transitions to me.  It was a pretty sobering experience but something I have come to realize as another chapter in my growth (I pray) in my relationship with Him.

So it was full three days "off" for me.  I never took a "staycation" before, but after this experience I guess I should consider doing that more often.

Election and Other Musings

I am here to provide opinions, so here they are.

- The election campaign since the conventions has taken a turn against the Donald.  Since the middle of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the Donald has only seen his competitive poll numbers sink in quicksand were he's fighting just to keep up in the swing states.  His comments regarding the Khizer Khan's Gold Star son's family during the week of the DNC refocused attention towards the Donald's judgment, fairly or unfairly.  When I first heard the comments, I initially thought that the Donald would not be significantly negatively effected by his comments because folks would simply think it's the Donald being strongly politically incorrect, even if he was baited by Hillary's campaign into doing so.

Well, then I saw the polls.  The Donald went from a small lead/parity with Hillary to a notable deficit in a matter of days.  The Donald has ever since had to fight negative press, both deserved and over the top, ever since. It's come to the point where the Donald has just out front declared open hostility against the press.  However, I see some signs that the Donald is showing signs of attempting to bring discipline to his campaign. For one, he's been pretty focused on attacking Hillary/the President/the mainstream media.  Two, he's actually starting to talk much more about policy, through giving specific policy speeches on economics and foreign policy as well as showing visual posters at his rallies. Finally, it appears that he's beginning to come to grips with having to consolidate the GOP behind him by endorsing the likes of Paul Ryan and actually building a get-out-to-vote ground game in swing states such as Florida.  

However, the Donald faces very long odds in this race since he's behind currently in all the swing states (PA, OH, FL, NC, VA) and facing uncertainty in usually reliable GOP states (AZ, GA, UT).  Currently, I see the chances that Hillary will win on November 8 at 80 percent.  If the Democratic candidate were in the vein of a Joe Biden, I would say 95 percent.  There are so many questions about Hillary's temperament, past judgments and even her health to conclude that this is anything more than a free throw for the win for her.  Yes, the Donald is even talking about Hillary's health ("she also lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on ISIS..").  After events such as this, I guess questions linger:


Watching this election, I only shake my head knowing that we are simply going to receive the government we deserve.

- This past week I learned that according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the birth rate in the US reached the lowest rate since they started taking record in 1909, at about 60 births per 1,000 women.  This is a large decrease from the Baby Boom high of about 123 births per 1,000 women in 1957.  The good news is that teen pregnancy is continues to fall.  Another piece of news to note is that the average age of women having children is rising as the number of new mothers over 30 increase. While there many factors that are contributing to these trends, three come immediately to mind:

1) Greater access to birth control.  Use of birth control has increased yearly, especially over the last 10 years (Guttmacher Institute, CDC)

2) Decline of married couples. In 1967, about two-thirds of adults lived with their spouse.  In 2014, about half of them do.  Fewer married couples over a widespread area means that women are usually having fewer children as economic limitations are going to become more present in their lives.

3) Growing educational and labor participation for women.  Multiple economic studies have shown that greater labor force participation for women is negatively correlated to birth rate, especially in developed countries. Women are also growing in educational attainment, which generally leads women to delay marriage as they focus on attaining their education and starting their careers.  Additionally, higher levels of education generally will lead to jobs where there are greater institutional barriers to raising children (OECD, Mishra, Nielsen and Smyth)

Nevertheless, it's clear: the world is changing fast.