Election and Other Musings

I am here to provide opinions, so here they are.

- The election campaign since the conventions has taken a turn against the Donald.  Since the middle of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the Donald has only seen his competitive poll numbers sink in quicksand were he's fighting just to keep up in the swing states.  His comments regarding the Khizer Khan's Gold Star son's family during the week of the DNC refocused attention towards the Donald's judgment, fairly or unfairly.  When I first heard the comments, I initially thought that the Donald would not be significantly negatively effected by his comments because folks would simply think it's the Donald being strongly politically incorrect, even if he was baited by Hillary's campaign into doing so.

Well, then I saw the polls.  The Donald went from a small lead/parity with Hillary to a notable deficit in a matter of days.  The Donald has ever since had to fight negative press, both deserved and over the top, ever since. It's come to the point where the Donald has just out front declared open hostility against the press.  However, I see some signs that the Donald is showing signs of attempting to bring discipline to his campaign. For one, he's been pretty focused on attacking Hillary/the President/the mainstream media.  Two, he's actually starting to talk much more about policy, through giving specific policy speeches on economics and foreign policy as well as showing visual posters at his rallies. Finally, it appears that he's beginning to come to grips with having to consolidate the GOP behind him by endorsing the likes of Paul Ryan and actually building a get-out-to-vote ground game in swing states such as Florida.  

However, the Donald faces very long odds in this race since he's behind currently in all the swing states (PA, OH, FL, NC, VA) and facing uncertainty in usually reliable GOP states (AZ, GA, UT).  Currently, I see the chances that Hillary will win on November 8 at 80 percent.  If the Democratic candidate were in the vein of a Joe Biden, I would say 95 percent.  There are so many questions about Hillary's temperament, past judgments and even her health to conclude that this is anything more than a free throw for the win for her.  Yes, the Donald is even talking about Hillary's health ("she also lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on ISIS..").  After events such as this, I guess questions linger:


Watching this election, I only shake my head knowing that we are simply going to receive the government we deserve.

- This past week I learned that according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the birth rate in the US reached the lowest rate since they started taking record in 1909, at about 60 births per 1,000 women.  This is a large decrease from the Baby Boom high of about 123 births per 1,000 women in 1957.  The good news is that teen pregnancy is continues to fall.  Another piece of news to note is that the average age of women having children is rising as the number of new mothers over 30 increase. While there many factors that are contributing to these trends, three come immediately to mind:

1) Greater access to birth control.  Use of birth control has increased yearly, especially over the last 10 years (Guttmacher Institute, CDC)

2) Decline of married couples. In 1967, about two-thirds of adults lived with their spouse.  In 2014, about half of them do.  Fewer married couples over a widespread area means that women are usually having fewer children as economic limitations are going to become more present in their lives.

3) Growing educational and labor participation for women.  Multiple economic studies have shown that greater labor force participation for women is negatively correlated to birth rate, especially in developed countries. Women are also growing in educational attainment, which generally leads women to delay marriage as they focus on attaining their education and starting their careers.  Additionally, higher levels of education generally will lead to jobs where there are greater institutional barriers to raising children (OECD, Mishra, Nielsen and Smyth)

Nevertheless, it's clear: the world is changing fast.