Election 2020: Small Things Make a Big Difference

So we're in the final week of September and I currently don't see any change in the electoral map from last week.

As it can be seen, there's a ways to go in this election.  Based on this map, MN would be an arguable tipping point state in this election.  Based on my analysis last week in MN, I could really see Trump being the first GOPer to win MN since 1972.  I argued that if he could do better with working-class, non-college graduates, especially in NE MN (i.e. Duluth and the Iron Range) he could do so. This theme applying to other battleground states (OH,WI, MN, PA) would have a similar effect.   So I was quite pleased to see that the Cook political report provided a "Swing-O-Meter" to do some sensitivity analysis on how demographic changes in the electorate changes the election outcome.

For example, currently the default map on the Swing-O-Meter is this

But now let's assume the following:

Trump's share of white, non-college grads goes from 69% in the above map to 70% and their turnout goes from 55% to 57%.  Here's the effect:

A pretty marginal change can make a large difference, one that is quite plausible from my myopic opinion.  Now let's look the at if instead of the above scenario if Trump share of white, non-college grads goes down to 67% and Biden's lead amongst white, college grads goes from 54% to 55%

There's been much buzz in anecdotal stories that Trump is doing better with Blacks and Hispanics than 2016.  So to test if that really makes much of a difference, let's hold all the shares of the electorate and the White/Asian vote shares splits the same as the default scenario.  I then change Trump's vote share of Blacks from 8% to 11% and his Hispanic share from 28% to 33%.

I guess it would make a significant difference.  So as I said at the beginning, there's much to see yet for the rest of this election.  Small changes in the electorate will make notable differences.

Talking about notable differences, the first debate is this upcoming week.  While there are many who think that Biden's public appearances would portend to Trump easily winning the debate, I beg to differ.  Incumbent Presidents generally haven't done well in their first debates, especially over the last 40 years.  Outside of President Bill Clinton showing much more vigor than Bob Dole in 1996, the incumbents haven't done well.  

• President Reagan's performance had voters wondering if he was becoming senile.  

• President George HW Bush looked at his watch during the debate, not something you want to publicly communicate how you feel in front of the electorate.    

• President George W Bush looked quite tired, repeating the same line ("He (John Kerry) always changes positions").  

• President Obama looked quite out of sorts from Mitt Romney's attacks on Obamacare.   

Each debate notably boosted the challenger in the polls.  Now in all the situations outside of President George HW Bush, the incumbent President was able to recover in following debates to win re-election.  However, beware of the expectations.

So until next time, it is what it is.

Election 2020: An Ongoing Episode

As we pass mid-September, things are changing.  Kids are getting back to school in one form or another.  The leaves are changing color.  Football is actually being played across the country.  

But for many folks, the events that are gaining interest are the events affecting the 2020 election.   I've heard from folks the 2016 election was the strangest they ever experienced.  I'm wondering if a good number of them are thinking 2020 is even stranger than that with the impeachment, yet failed expulsion, of President Trump.  A COVID-19 pandemic which had effects not seen since the 1918 Spanish flu.  The pandemic caused politicians to shut down their local economies and has created distrust with public health officials and large segments of the public on how to protect public health.  I frankly never thought we'd think wearing a mask is a political issue, but it certainly is.  Now the latest news is whether or not to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacancy on SCOTUS.  2020 certainly has not been a boring year.

Hence, I've decided to provide some of my perspective on this year's election as well as a map of where I think the presidential election between President Trump and Joe Biden currently stands.  I'll attempt to provide these posts weekly and I would appreciate your comments (just keep them civil).   

Here's my current map of where the Presidential race stands.

In other words, this is a very close race at the moment.  The election will largely be won in the battleground states (MN, WI, PA, AZ).  Here's where I think each state's race is at the moment.

AZ: Much polling has shown Biden with an edge in this state.  However, I think the issue with much public polling is the way they are sampling voters.  Many surveys polls are either by cell or online panel.  That's a poll that looks straightforward to take if one is a professional who has some level of college/postgraduate education.  However for folks like my parents, who didn't go to college and really don't like using a computer outside of work purposes, are less likely to volunteer to complete a survey online or questions on a phone call because it's not a good use of time in his/her opinion.  The thing that 2016 proved is the latter is where Trump has his strongest support: working-class folks without a bachelors or postgraduate degree.  In AZ, as in much polling, I think too few of those folks took those polls to give an accurate picture, especially in Maricopa county, the state's largest county population wise.  My feeling is that Trump is up by 1-2 points there, but it's quite close.

WI: Biden is shown to have slight to moderate leads here.  However, while I think he's currently slightly ahead there, it's probably currently 2-3 points.  This gap can be closed by Trump doing better in the Milwaukee suburbs (with Kenosha, recall what happened there) and maxes out in Northern WI north of Madison and Milwaukee.  

PA:  Biden is shown to have slight to moderate leads here as well.  However, while I think he's currently slightly ahead there, it's probably currently 2-3 points.  This gap can be closed by Trump doing better in the Philly suburbs (notably Bucks County) and maxes out in Western PA.  If Trump wins Bucks County, Biden better do better than Hillary did in 2016 or he probably loses PA without any corruption.  I don't suspect there will be any notable shady behavior, but in 2020 we've seen the unexpected more than once.

MN: Biden has shown to have lead here as well.  But I think the polls are underestimating Trump's strength outside of the Twin Cities Metro.  In 2016, Trump lost St Louis county, where my hometown Duluth is the county seat, by 14 points, yet lost the state by 44K votes.  That means Trump did much stronger in the rest of the outstate than the normal GOPer.  That's the truth (he won the 8th Congressional district, which includes Duluth, by 18 points, the 7th district (Western MN), by 30 points and the 1st district (Southern MN) by 15 points.  Regarding St Louis county, 7 Iron Range Democratic (DFL) mayors have come out in support of Trump due to his work on opening up mining in the area and his trade policies towards China.  I also think Trump is more natural cultural fit to folks in the Iron Range by the way he communicates and emphasis on culture wars (abortion, antiwar, etc).   So I wouldn't be surprised if Trump expands his margins in the 8th district.  And by my travels lately through the 7th district recently, Trump will probably have at least 30 percent margins in the 7th.  Biden needs to rely on strength in the Twin Cities Metro and in Rochester/Duluth to pull him over the line.  Currently I think Biden is leading by 1-2 points, but it's going to probably depend on Get Out To Vote (GOTV) on who wins here.

Till next time, it is what it is....