Random Musings

I'm currently in Denver visiting my sister and her husband and (cough, cough) attend a Wild hockey game.  Wild I have some down time here I think I should take some time to put some thoughts together.

- This trip to Denver has illuminated me to the idea that the legalization of marijuana certainly has it effects.  My sister and others have told me that the past couple years property values in Denver have gone up a great amount since the majority of voters decided to legalize marijuana.  The guy next to me on the plane was saying he was looking forward to his joint after he got off the plane.  Public policy really has it's affects.

- I read an article from the Washington Post citing the findings of a study that more intelligent folks have fewer friends. Most folks are generally happy the more interactions they have with their close friends.  However, "more intelligent individuals were actually less satisfied with life if they socialized with their friends more frequently."  I guess I don't know how intelligent I am now.

- I have to say my thoughts on the GOP nomination battle are the same: the Donald in commanding position, yet not clearly on a path to roll to the nomination. Events on the ground are fluid, sometimes unsavory.  I also feel these just general great dissatisfaction out in society now, yet not a general consensus on what should be done about it.  So much so that the candidate that I voted for in 2012, Libertarian Gary Johnson, received 11% of the vote (a very high third party number) in a recent poll.  These are interesting times.

- By the way, have you seen my colleague Peter and my Twins Preview yet?

Happy Easter!!!

2016 Minnesota Twins Preview

It's that time of year again.  The 2016 Major League Baseball season is upon us and you know what that means. The highly anticipated (somewhat acclaimed)  Minnesota Twins season preview.  This season we changed the venue a bit.  Enjoy!

Super Tuesday Deux

I'll just say that this election is the strangest one in my lifetime.  All conventional wisdom has gone out the window, especially when it comes to confronting the success of the Donald.  The GOP "Establishment" appears to be at a loss:



I have to say, if all you have to say is "all he has is a lot of votes" that says quite a bit about what the GOP "Establishment" is thinking these days.  They simply were not ready for the political shrewdness of the Donald.  They were not ready for a candidate who could effectively channel a notable size of the electorate's anger at the federal government, the politicians and the status quo and state that he can be their bully against them.  They were not ready for a candidate who knows how to connect with the angst of blue collar Americans regarding their own future and the future of the country.  They were not ready for a candidate who knows how to define the debate and his opponents as deftly as the Donald.   So now we have hit this point of the campaign, where rhetoric is getting heated and GOP candidates who earnestly stated 6 months ago that the Donald should support the GOP nominee at all costs through signing a pledge of allegiance now say they have to reconsider supporting the Donald if he is the GOP nominee.  Where folks are quick to state the Donald has the support of the Ku Klux Klan, when ironically it's the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who got the endorsement of the KKK's Grand Dragon .   These are simply interesting times.

So what to make of tomorrow.  It will be a defining day indeed.  Here's my predictions:

Florida - the Donald wins by around 10 points.  It's lights out for Marco Rubio and the most interesting part of this race is what Marco will say in suspending his campaign. Make that 2 vanquished Establishment candidates.

Ohio - I'm torn on this one.  Every conventional indication is that Ohio Governor John Kasich should win here.  However, these are not conventional times.  Connections to the establishment are deleterious in this campaign and Gov. Kasich not only has many connections to the establishment, but also flaunting those connections, including Mitt Romney.  I still think Kasich wins here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Donald has a late surge to pull it out, especially if he can energize blue collar types to get to the polls, which he has been very effective in doing.

Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina -   Unlike Florida and Ohio, where the winner gets all the delegates, these states award them proportionally.  I think this will split in the following way:

the Donald 90
Cruz 77
Kasich 20
Rubio 6

At the end of the evening, the Donald will have a commanding lead, but not enough of one for inevitability to universally kick in that he'll be the GOP nominee. Buckle your belts, it'll be a bumpy ride.

Democrats

Something that's intriguing to me for all those who say that Hillary would crush the Donald is that Hillary can't really even crush socialist Bernie Sanders.  If one takes away the superdelegates, whom will give Hillary the win eventually, she's only beating Sanders by a score of 750 to 540,  that gap is largely due to her crushing Sanders in TX, GA, LA and MS. I see tomorrow being more of the same:  Hillary struggles to put Bernie away.   

Hillary wins FL, MO, NC

Bernie wins IL, OH

As Paul Harvey would say: Good Day!

Turning the Corner

We've hit another phase in this election season and I guess I know two things:

1) The race for the GOP Presidential nomination is more of a soap opera than the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

2) The GOP establishment has been defeated.

Perhaps it's just my myopic thinking, but I'm just fascinated by how the race for the GOP has unfolded.  Each day proves to make this race more and more unique.  First, we have the Donald breaking all rules of political correctness and conventional campaigning to surge to a strong lead for the nomination.  I'm saying as of this moment he has 75% chance of being the nominee. If the Donald wins all 165 delegates in the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio a week from now, move that number up to 95%.  Currently, I clearly doubt that the Donald won't be the GOP nominee.  I know that there are those who say that if the Donald ends up going one-on-one with Ted Cruz that Cruz can make the race quite interesting, I just don't see that happening.  Let's assume that Rubio and John Kasich drop out after next Tuesday so we end up with the Donald against Cruz.  Well, I think the Donald would be a heavy favorite.  Not only would he probably have a large delegate lead to begin with, but look at the states that Cruz would have to win to keep in the race: NY, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Arizona, New Jersey, etc.  Not exactly the electorate that favors his brand of conservative politics.  So it's clear to me that the Donald is in a very strong position.

Second, we see that every candidate the "Establishment" has supported has been crushed by the Donald.  Initially, the Establishment gets behind Jeb Bush as their candidate.  Well, the Donald effectively defined him as a timid, Country Club politician who is the brother of a failed President.  So after Jeb leaves, the Establishment gets behind Marco Rubio, the man elected as a Tea Party insurgent.  The Donald belittles "Little Marco" as a weak candidate that acts like a child. Rubio, in response, resorts to a vituperation contest with the Donald as well as trying to tell his supporters they have been duped.  Not exactly the best way to gain support for a enervating campaign.  It certainly doesn't look like Rubio is long for this race.

So what does the Establishment do?  The latest event is that the 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney goes on a ad hominem attack against the Donald, stating he's a phony and a fraud that he cannot support.  I find it interesting that the political elites think that calling supporters of the GOP frontrunner that they don't like as naive and uninformed is their way of trying to convince them to not support him. I'll just say that if Romney was better candidate in 2012 that the Donald wouldn't be where is now. 

So with Hillary Clinton well on her way to the Democratic nomination, it appears we're headed towards a clash between the Donald and Hillary.  I know many think that Donald with his high disapproval ratings and his incendiary rhetoric against Mexico and China would get crushed by Hillary. Now as one that will not vote for the Donald (I guess I agree with Mitt et al there) I just don't see that as a sure thing.  

Sure, it could happen, but I could just as easily see the Donald crushing Hillary.  Hillary is a flawed candidate who also not only has high disapproval ratings and is not trusted by large swaths of the electorate.  She also has the cloud of uncertainty of legal action around her as well as not being able to inspire the electorate, especially large swaths of the Democratic base.  Just look at the turnout numbers in the nomination process, the GOP turnouts are growing and the Dems are shrinking.  

If the Donald is able to connect the way he has with blue-collar professionals, both union and non-union, I can see the Donald being very competitive in states that Republicans have not won in decades like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as in a stronger position in swing states such as Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.  I hear about the high disapproval the Donald has with Hispanics and I agree that could be a problem for him.  However, not many bring up the fact that there are elements of the African Americans community that feel threatened by Latinos growing influence in society and I'm not just talking about Trayvon Martin.  Plus, the Donald is not a conventional politician and Hillary struggles against opponents that play outside the conventional political box.  I think Hillary would be a favored candidate in such a race, but I wouldn't count out the Donald.

So I'm off to Florida to watch Twins baseball and some relaxation this week.  So until later, take care.

Super Tuesday

This election year is utterly different from any other I've lived through, specifically on the GOP side.  It's truly the year of the outsider where Donald Trump continues to prove that the public that he has greater political skill than anybody realized, especially 8 months ago.  

Many in the "establishment" appear vexed about how the Donald is doing so well.  It's quite simple for me to understand. The Donald has proved adept at simplifying issues and getting the electorate passionate about them, specifically immigration, trade with China and overall dissatisfaction with the status quo.  Yes, I'm intrigue how a man who says the following is currently riding great momentum through the GOP primaries:

However, the Donald is able to get voters passionate about issues in a way that make his supporters quite loyal to him.  Additionally, the Donald is perfect rebellion candidate.  Tired of political correctness? There's no question the Donald is politically incorrect. Tired of the old leadership in DC that gave us Iraq, Katrina, the 2008 Great Recession and Obamacare?  The Donald rails against Iraq, incompetent leadership and Obamacare. The Donald simply knows how focus voters attitudes towards simple concepts. 

Another thing that really strikes me about the Donald is his ability to define his opponents and utterly defeat them playing mind games with them.  He calls Jeb Bush timid and a poor candidate.  This causes Jeb Bush to go from the intelligent sounding policy wonk to a man trying to be aggressive when he's not that way.  The Donald questions Ted Cruz's veracity, which allows others who don't like Mr. Cruz to do the same and illuminates the Cruz's campaign dirty campaign tactics.  This made "Trusted Ted" much less trusted.  In the past week he calls Marco Rubio "Little Marco" insinuating that Rubio acts like a child. How does Rubio react?  He basically is trying to convince voters to vote for him by telling them that the Donald "wet his pants" and that they are being duped by a con man. Not exactly a way an adult likes to be talked to when someone is trying to change their mind.

Now the Donald is racking up endorsements from all types of folks. If someone told me that a candidate was getting endorsements from Chris Christie and Jeff Sessions, I'd be thinking "Big Tent" candidate, not the Donald.  He's even receiving endorsements from interesting places:

Si j’étais américain, je voterais Donald TRUMP… Mais que Dieu le protège !

— Jean-Marie Le Pen (@lepenjm) February 27, 2016

Le Pen is the leader of the National Front, the French Nationalist, anti-immigrant party.

Alas, I guess I need to make a prediction.  There are 15 states voting on Super Tuesday that are giving delegates out proportionally.  So here's my delegate breakdown:

Republicans:

The Donald 285 delegates
Rubio 175 delegates
Cruz 100 delegates
Kasich 10 delegates
Carson 5 delegates

Oh, the Democrats are voting too?  Well, this race is coming to a quick end:

Hillary 700 delegates
Sanders 165 delegates

Enjoy (or not) the evening.