Turning the Corner

We've hit another phase in this election season and I guess I know two things:

1) The race for the GOP Presidential nomination is more of a soap opera than the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

2) The GOP establishment has been defeated.

Perhaps it's just my myopic thinking, but I'm just fascinated by how the race for the GOP has unfolded.  Each day proves to make this race more and more unique.  First, we have the Donald breaking all rules of political correctness and conventional campaigning to surge to a strong lead for the nomination.  I'm saying as of this moment he has 75% chance of being the nominee. If the Donald wins all 165 delegates in the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio a week from now, move that number up to 95%.  Currently, I clearly doubt that the Donald won't be the GOP nominee.  I know that there are those who say that if the Donald ends up going one-on-one with Ted Cruz that Cruz can make the race quite interesting, I just don't see that happening.  Let's assume that Rubio and John Kasich drop out after next Tuesday so we end up with the Donald against Cruz.  Well, I think the Donald would be a heavy favorite.  Not only would he probably have a large delegate lead to begin with, but look at the states that Cruz would have to win to keep in the race: NY, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Arizona, New Jersey, etc.  Not exactly the electorate that favors his brand of conservative politics.  So it's clear to me that the Donald is in a very strong position.

Second, we see that every candidate the "Establishment" has supported has been crushed by the Donald.  Initially, the Establishment gets behind Jeb Bush as their candidate.  Well, the Donald effectively defined him as a timid, Country Club politician who is the brother of a failed President.  So after Jeb leaves, the Establishment gets behind Marco Rubio, the man elected as a Tea Party insurgent.  The Donald belittles "Little Marco" as a weak candidate that acts like a child. Rubio, in response, resorts to a vituperation contest with the Donald as well as trying to tell his supporters they have been duped.  Not exactly the best way to gain support for a enervating campaign.  It certainly doesn't look like Rubio is long for this race.

So what does the Establishment do?  The latest event is that the 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney goes on a ad hominem attack against the Donald, stating he's a phony and a fraud that he cannot support.  I find it interesting that the political elites think that calling supporters of the GOP frontrunner that they don't like as naive and uninformed is their way of trying to convince them to not support him. I'll just say that if Romney was better candidate in 2012 that the Donald wouldn't be where is now. 

So with Hillary Clinton well on her way to the Democratic nomination, it appears we're headed towards a clash between the Donald and Hillary.  I know many think that Donald with his high disapproval ratings and his incendiary rhetoric against Mexico and China would get crushed by Hillary. Now as one that will not vote for the Donald (I guess I agree with Mitt et al there) I just don't see that as a sure thing.  

Sure, it could happen, but I could just as easily see the Donald crushing Hillary.  Hillary is a flawed candidate who also not only has high disapproval ratings and is not trusted by large swaths of the electorate.  She also has the cloud of uncertainty of legal action around her as well as not being able to inspire the electorate, especially large swaths of the Democratic base.  Just look at the turnout numbers in the nomination process, the GOP turnouts are growing and the Dems are shrinking.  

If the Donald is able to connect the way he has with blue-collar professionals, both union and non-union, I can see the Donald being very competitive in states that Republicans have not won in decades like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as in a stronger position in swing states such as Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.  I hear about the high disapproval the Donald has with Hispanics and I agree that could be a problem for him.  However, not many bring up the fact that there are elements of the African Americans community that feel threatened by Latinos growing influence in society and I'm not just talking about Trayvon Martin.  Plus, the Donald is not a conventional politician and Hillary struggles against opponents that play outside the conventional political box.  I think Hillary would be a favored candidate in such a race, but I wouldn't count out the Donald.

So I'm off to Florida to watch Twins baseball and some relaxation this week.  So until later, take care.