2012 Twins Season Preview and Predictions

I have news to report. As many of you know, I do have a high interest in the Minnesota Twins baseball team. Each year, I urgently wait to hear from Nostrawongamus, a self-described prophet of sporting events and teams, prediction on the Minnesota Twins upcoming season. Up to last year, the results have been impressive.

Here’s what Nostrawongamus said in 2008:

"So what's my final prediction on the success of the team. Without the drum roll, I'll stick my neck out on the line and say this team will win 85-90 games this year. Yes, you heard that right. I'm predicting 85-90 wins for the 2008 MN Twins. I believe this team will go deep into the playoff chase into September, but will fall short of the wild card."
 


Result: Twins win 88 games and lose to the White Sox in AL Central tiebreaker game.

That was quite impressive, but recall 2009:

“Therefore, I predict that the Twins will win between 86 to 93 games this season in a really tight AL Central race. However, if the bullpen holds up like I think it will and the Twins remain relatively healthy, I think they will win the division title.”

Result: Twins win 87 games and beat the Tigers in the AL Central tiebreaker game.

His prediction in 2010 wasn’t too far off the mark, either:

“Therefore, I predict that the Twins will win between 89 to 94 games this season in a relatively tight AL Central race. However, if the bullpen holds up like I think it will and the Twins remain relatively healthy, I think they will win the division title and perhaps make the ALCS.”

Result: Twins win 94 games and win the AL Central title.

So going into last season, I was feeling pretty good about Nostrawongamus’s prediction when it came in:

“I’m predicting between 85 and 90 wins for the Twins this season, but they will NOT make the playoffs this season”

Result: The Twins did not make the playoffs alright, but losing 99 games was something Nostrawongamus or anyone else didn’t see coming.

So I was wondering if I was going to see Nostrawongamus was going to swallow his pride and supply his prediction for the upcoming Twin season. After much angst of anticipation, I received a note from Nostrawongamus. Here it is:

Hello Eric,

I have not heard much from you recently. I again didn’t see you once again in Florida this year. Your absence has made my job tougher as I have had to rely on other means to get my observations for the upcoming season. As I reflect on the disaster of last season’s prediction, I admit that my sources are not as intrepid as you are in providing information on the Minnesota Twins. Therefore, I blame you as the main reason why last year’s prediction was so far off outside of the playoff prediction. Now I could just demur from providing any prediction for this season since you didn’t provide me any insights in the last month and you certainly didn’t come to Florida to see me. But being a man of great mercy, I’ll provide my prediction for the upcoming year. I’ll just say you better come next March or you may not be getting any predictions from me.

So here’s what I see for the upcoming Twins season.

Infield: Recall last season I stated this following concern about the infield:

“I don’t see this season’s middle infield combination of Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka performing much better or consistently as it did (in 2010). This combination may be faster on the base paths and in the field but I have real concerns about them offensively and their ability to stay healthy. Both players have not proven to be consistently able to stay healthy as well as to perform consistently through a whole major league baseball season. I’m thinking the Twins will need Trevor Plouffe, Matt Tolbert and/or Luke Hughes to perform well for stretches of time in order to provide the necessary offensive and defensive output needed to be a season-long contender. Injury concerns also arise with the M&M boys, 1^st baseman Justin Morneau and catcher Joe Mauer. It has taken Morneau over seven months to recover from a concussion, which makes one wonder if he can perform the same way as pitchers try to bust him inside offensively to make him think about it. Catcher Joe Mauer is still recovering from knee surgery, which for a catcher should be a concern who’s been in the league more than 5 years. “

Unfortunately, I was generally right, per usual. I admit I expected bigger things out of Danny Valencia and was greatly disappointed and the bench was literally a disaster since Plouffe, Tolbert and Hughes didn’t come close to expectations either. However, I’m notably more positive regarding the infield this season at least offensively. I feel that the signing of Jamey Carroll was a solid signing for a functional, stable shortstop that can make the routine plays and get on base. I do have concerns that the Twins expect him to play more than 130 games this season, but I think Luke Hughes can ably fill in for him or anywhere else in the infield and not see a huge drop-off. I also expect a little more consistency out of Casilla this season also, but the key for him is just staying healthy. His inconsistency generally stems from his inability to stay healthy. That’s also true for the M&M boys, although I’m thinking they both will come back rather strongly this season. However, I think Morneau will be primarily a DH for large stretches of the season as I see Chris Parmalee emerge as a legit power threat and a functional 1B to add pop to the offense. I also see a significant offensive upgrade in Ryan Doumit as a backup to Mauer, which means not as a significant a drop-off when Mauer’s not in the lineup. However, although I expect significant rebounds from the M&M boys, I’m less certain of an offensive rebound from 3B Danny Valencia. Although he appears to have worked hard in the offseason, I’m not sure he’s going to significantly improve, which is significant for a lineup looking for right-handed power. If the M&M boys, Valencia and Parmalee drive in 250 to 300 runs between them, this will be a potent offense.

Outfield: This year’s group will be in constant flux, especially in right field. LF is set at Josh Willingham. He may be function power threat that could hit 30 homers this season, but he’s just on par with below-average defensive outfielder due to his lack of range and ball tracking skills. CF Denard Span should have a strong comeback season coming back from a concussion and will be the best defensive outfielder on the team this season. RF is where the mystery begins. Trevor Plouffe moving out there from the infield should be a benefit to him as he’ll probably notably increase his power numbers if he plays more than a 100 games out there. However, his defensive ability is unproven. Ben Revere has the most defensive range of any outfielder, but he also has the weakest outfield arm in the outfield. While I’m intrigued by his speed, I’m concerned by his lack of ability to consistently get on base to add value to the lineup. Also, Parmalee and Doumit are options for an occasional play in RF, which would be a great bolster to the offensive punch the bench can provide. In conclusion, I think the outfield will be average to above average offensively, but notably below average defensively.

Bullpen: An area of great concern from last season and the area with the most turnover. Question marks abound regarding the closer, middle relief and right handed setup man. Matt Capps comes back as the closer after a very difficult season last year where he was consistently being booed by the hometown crowd. I’m confident that he’ll be a functional closer this year since I think his forearm injury last year really hurt the command of his pitches due to the mental effect of his injury. Glen Perkins provides an able Plan B if needed; as he’s already proven that he can be a dominant 8^th inning setup man for long stretches. After those two, there will be a lot of turnover that I am confident will be better than what many think, yet not dominant. Jared Burton and Matt Maloney have much to prove this season to show that they are not simply journeyman pitchers. I’m more confident that Burton, who has impressed this spring, can prove to be a real value find for the Twins this year. I think of him as a harder throwing version of Matt Guerrier if he stays healthy. Jeff Grey and Anthony Swarzak will provide not spectacular, but adequate middle relief help and Brian Duensing will prove to be a valuable utility reliever. So if Capps returns to the 2010 form and setup guys Burton, Duensing and Maloney prove to be adequate, I think they will greatly contribute to notable success in the win-loss column.

Rotation: Last season, I had great confidence in this group coming into the season. This season, I think there are five question marks coming into the season. However, I do have some confidence that they will be marked improvement over last season, which was an utter disaster due to injury, inconsistency and very bad defense for a pitching staff that tries to pitch to contact. Carl Pavano was the most consistent pitcher last year, yet his stats weren’t great because the defense behind him was so terrible. I think he’ll do better this season since it’s a contract year for him and I do expect marked improvement from the infield defense, which will improve his stats. Francisco Liriano is the most talented pitcher on this staff and I think he’ll prove it this season since he appears to have changed his approach from being slider happy and actually try to throw more fastballs in pitcher-friendly counts. Being a contract year for Liriano doesn’t hurt the mindset either. When healthy, Nick Blackburn can prove to be an innings-eater that keeps his team in the ballgame. Scott Baker also has great stuff, but his consistency and ability to stay healthy concerns me. Jason Marquis is a value pickup that’ll at the high end have Blackburn-type stats and at the low end look like Carlos Silva. In short, I see Pavano and Liriano leading the staff with 13 or more wins, Blackburn and Baker with 11 or 12 wins and Jason Marquis with about 10 wins. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Liam Hendriks comes in and takes Baker’s or Marquis’s spot in the rotation. In all, not an overly impressive staff, but they will be markedly improved from last season.

So here’s the batting order:

1. Span
2. Carroll
3. Mauer
4. Morneau
5. Willingham
6. Valencia
7. Parmalee
8. Plouffe
9. Casilla
   

And the starting rotation:

1. Pavano
2. Liriano
3. Blackburn
4. Marquis
5. Baker
   

So here’s the final tally to the big questions:

Will the Twins be playing in the playoffs? No, although they will be in the hunt in September.

How many wins for the Twins in 2012? My optimism has grown through the spring. I’m bold enough to say the Twins will win between 79 to 86 games. That’ll probably be good enough for 2^nd place in the AL Central.

Now I absolutely need to see you in FL next March or you’re not getting another prediction from me.

Nostrawongamus

-------

So there you have it folks, Nostrawongamus’s predictions for the Twins 2012 campaign. I’ll just say that his wins prediction range is a whole lot narrower than Twins pundit 1500 ESPN Twin Cities Phil Mackey, whose range seems quite wide for someone whose job is to follow this team.

Head Slapper of the Week

In an interesting story that probably shows what happens when a society becomes overly dependent on government to provide for basic needs, Hans Url, a 56-year Austrian man who was on public assistance, cut off his leg with an electric saw when he learned that his benefits could be slashed if he didn't accept work found for him. Url apparently couldn't see himself living off public assistance since he has been on it since 2003. Apparently this case challenges the idea that one can teach this man to fish so you could feed him for life. Three Head Slaps.

Transition, Introduction, SCOTUS and Obamacare

Welcome to the Transition! I’ve decided after about 10 years of sending email blogs that it was finally time to actually use new technology that allows me to maintain the security of my blog, but in a format that is more user friendly to the reader. I’ve received much response in terms and support and resistance to this decision. As a result, I expect to lose a quarter of my current recipient list due to this transition since you had to positively accept an invitation to gain access to the blog. Therefore, if you accepted the invitation, can you please send me a note at wonge02@gmail.com to inform me that you are still reading and I will thank you for doing so.

Not only will the blog template and location change here, but I’ve also decided to change the contents in this blog. I’ll still give comments on life’s happenings, views on current events and the highly popular Head Slapper of the Week. However, they will not all appear in the same blog; they will be broken up in a free-flowing format. I will send emails when new posts are available naming the contents of the blog so you can make the decision whether or not to make the effort to read the blog. As I try to do, I aim to serve. I’m currently debating whether I’m to allow comments on this blog, especially since I don’t want to have great political discord that publicly labels who said what comment. I would appreciate feedback on that issue in the “comments” to this post.

So I guess there is so much flux in this blog’s readership demos I should explain how I got the idea for the title of this blog, “Musings of Mellow Yellow.” Well, it’s an ode to Rev. Joseph Lowery. Rev. Lowery provided the following benediction at the current President’s inauguration in January 2009:

“Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get [in] back, when brown can stick around, when yellow will be mellow, when the red man can get ahead, man; and when white will embrace what is right. Let all those who do justice and love mercy say Amen! Say Amen! And Amen!”

As a man of peace who respects the Presidency, what else do I need to say?

----------------------

Today I will just quickly opine on my initial thoughts regarding the big news story this week, the Supreme Court’s (SCOTUS) hearings on the health care law or Obamacare.

According to my myopic understanding, the hearings will debate the following issues:

• Is the individual mandate that imposes a penalty for those who do not purchase health care a tax? The issue has to do with the Anti-Injunction Act, which dates to 1867. It says, “No suit for the purpose of restraining the assessment or collection of any tax shall be maintained in any court by any person.” Therefore, if the penalty imposed by the mandate is considered a tax, Obamacare is essentially legal and SCOTUS will probably leave it as is. If it is not a tax, then SCOTUS may go ahead and decide if the mandate and/or Obamacare as a whole is constitutional.

• Does the individual mandate (which is never directly labeled in the 2,000 plus page legislation) fall within the limits of the Commerce clause in the Constitution? Essentially, does the individual mandate that everyone buy health insurance fall within the limits that it is "necessary and proper" in order to carry out the changes in the insurance market, such as guaranteeing coverage to people with pre-existing conditions. The Commerce clause authorizes Congress' taxing power, in this case mandating citizens to buy health insurance or pay a fine.

• Is the individual mandate “severable” from the rest of Obamacare? If the mandate is not severable from Obamacare and the mandate is ruled unconstitutional, Obamacare will cease to exist and we are back to Square One. If the mandate is severable and is ruled unconstitutional, then we have end up with a real public policy debate of a whole lot of new regulation with no new way to pay for it.

• Should states be conscripted to pay for the expansion of Medicaid to uninsured adults? If upheld, we again have a real policy debate of a new mandate to the states without a new way (at the state level) to pay for it.

While many of my colleagues who oppose Obamacare believe that it will be overturned in June through a ruling of an unconstitutionality of the individual mandate and that since it is not severable, I’m not one of them. I’ll just say for now that while many think that Justice Anthony Kennedy is the swing vote on the issues in this case based on his previous jurisprudence history, I disagree. I tend to think the swing vote in this case in no other than Chief Justice John Roberts. Why? It’s based on my observation of his confirmation hearings and his previous history.

In particular:

• In his confirmation hearing, Chief Justice Roberts stated that he does not have a comprehensive jurisprudential philosophy. In fact, he explicitly stated that he did not think beginning with an all-encompassing approach to constitutional interpretation is the best way to faithfully construe the document"

• Chief Justice Roberts has shown a great inclination towards “judicial modesty” in pragmatically approaching different issues of jurisprudence. So while he has proven to historically show a deference to federalism in his rulings, he’s one that does not believe in “legislating from the bench” as he said in his confirmation hearing regarding the judiciary’s role in reviewing acts of Congress:

"The Supreme Court has, throughout its history, on many occasions described the deference that is due to legislative judgments. Justice Holmes described assessing the constitutionality of an act of Congress as the gravest duty that the Supreme Court is called upon to perform. ... It's a principle that is easily stated and needs to be observed in practice, as well as in theory.

"Now, the Court, of course, has the obligation, and has been recognized since Marbury v. Madison, to assess the constitutionality of acts of Congress, and when those acts are challenged, it is the obligation of the Court to say what the law is. The determination of when deference to legislative policy judgments goes too far and becomes abdication of the judicial responsibility, and when scrutiny of those judgments goes too far on the part of the judges and becomes what I think is properly called judicial activism, that is certainly the central dilemma of having an unelected, as you describe it correctly, undemocratic judiciary in a democratic republic."

Thus, based on Chief Justice Roberts’s jurisprudential philosophy of calling “balls and strikes” and his history of promoting “judicial modesty” and respecting precedent, I’m thinking that he is the Justice to watch in this debate. In my myopic opinion, before the arguments are completed, I’m of the opinion that Obamacare will either be upheld in total or the individual mandate will be ruled in violation of the Commerce Clause, but severable from the rest of the law, leaving the country with a whole lot of new regulation that will be very expensive to implement. But we will see what happens.

----------------------

As a parting thought, I recently saw that Rick Santorum cussed out a reporter in public. As one who has gained much of his support from the evangelical and religious folk, all I can say is irony.