Election 2020 is pretty much over and it was quite historic for multiple reasons:
- Highest voter turnout in American history - over 150 million votes
- Most mail in ballots in American history
- First time since 1992 where the winner of the Presidential contest (I'm 98% certain it's Joe Biden) in Florida lost the Electoral College
- Both Joe Biden (over 78 million votes) and Donald Trump (over 72 million votes) are the greatest Democratic and GOP Presidential vote getters in American history by well over 10% more than the previous record
To be frank, I was surprised by the result. Although I did not vote for Trump (not this year or in 2016), I did expect him to win based on the criteria I spoke about in my prediction blog. While there is litigation pending, I am 98% certain that Joe Biden will be formally ratified as President on Jan 6, 2021. I will say that Trump has the right to pursue the litigation he seeks, but I just want that litigation to be adjudicated as quickly as possible to bring closure to this election in a way that is transparent and brings confidence to the election process.
I confess I underestimated the effects of mail in balloting in helping Biden in swing states such as PA, GA, AZ and MI. I will say that what concerns me about that is the lack of transparency regarding mail in balloting. That goes from the chain of custody to secure the ballots to actually knowing how many of them are there to count. I believe the former can be addressed using the template used in states that have secured systems for mail in balloting such as Oregon, Colorado and Florida. The latter I think we actually need some federal standards for states to abide by in regards to counting the number of ballots sent out and counting how many have returned by Election Day. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect all the votes to be counted by the day after Election Day, since most states are currently able to do that. As one who does generally vote early, I think there should be a shortened window when a person can start to vote early and Election Day. Those are my myopic thoughts.
Regarding the results of the election, outside of the final result of the Presidential race, my prediction was pretty accurate in my opinion.
- Trump increased his share of support from Hispanics and Blacks by a notable margin. Hence that's why he was able to win FL quite easily.
- It was a high turnout election, about 150 million votes, I said 155 million
- Trump's late surge did help GOP in the Senate races. Currently the GOP holds 50 seats with 2 pending. I predicted that the GOP would win 52.
- Trump's late surge also helped the GOP in the House, especially in swing districts in CA and NY, netting probably around 10-12 seats. I predicted the GOP would gain 12 seats.
If the GOP wins one of the GA runoffs, which I think is a 50/50 shot, I think the Biden Presidency will be one of great gridlock with no major policy changes. Biden's greatest impacts would be in the regulatory and national security areas at that point. I also think there's a 25% chance we won't see Biden finish his term. When you pass the average lifespan for a male like Biden has, it's a real possibility.
So there is a high probability that after Thanksgiving we'll be speculating what will Trump do after January 20. Well, in my myopic opinion, knowing how Trump is not one to shy away from attention as his marketing skills, we will not hear the end of him. In fact, there's a decent chance we may have extended his influence an extra four years. With the current apparatus he has in loyal supporters, I could see Trump basically becoming the chief critic of not only Biden, but the establishment "Swamp" in DC from both parties. He could immediately say he's likely to try to run again in 2024, although I think that's unlikely initially. But Trump will likely use his media acumen to keep himself in public view. Whether that's through rallies he'll continue to hold or media channels he can control. Throughout it all, he can act as chief critic and provocateur to his opposition. If he does that, he can then use those channels as a testing ground on whether he'd try to pull off a Grover Cleveland type feat and run again to win in 2024.
I appreciate all of you who have followed my posts over the last couple months. Hopefully you've found them insightful. Please drop a line to keep in touch. I'd appreciate hearing from you. But I wish you a Happy Thanksgiving and a Blessed Christmas. It is what it is.
