Election 2020: Final Projections

Election 2020 is about over.  I am sure we all just want our lives back to normal.  But before then, we have to go through Election day (week, etc).  I have presented my projection maps throughout the campaign, with varying levels of interests.  I will start out with the admission that while I thought that Trump was surging in 2016, I didn't quite see him winning.  Well, 4 years later, I see Trump again surging over the last three weeks, as he has become much more focused and disciplined in delivering his message, just like he was the last 3 weeks of the 2016 election.  With that in mind, here's my final projection map.

Some observations:

• Trump's campaign appears to have solidified much of their 2016 coalition, especially white, working-class males and seniors.  Trump has increased enthusiasm among these groups, largely through talking about several of his policies (tariffs, immigration, trade) as well as the greatest persuasion tactic, fear.  Such enthusiasm is the best Get Out To Vote (GOTV) asset any campaign can have.  Although Trump appears weaker in the suburbs, particularly suburban women, in most battlegrounds (perhaps outside Wisconsin),  he has been able to make the gap there with increasing his support among Hispanics and Blacks, particularly working class Black men. When the likes of Black influences like Lil Wayne, 50 Cent and Charlamagne the God are either endorsing Trump or giving strong reasons not to vote for Biden, it makes a difference.  Joe Biden's appeal was suppose to be able to gain much of that lost working class support back to the Democrats.  It doesn't look like he really succeeded in accomplishing that goal.  

• Talking about GOTV, one of the reasons why I see Trump win swing states such as PA, MI, WI, NH and MN is that Trump's campaign has spent much more of their resources on strategic, pavement pounding GOTV while the Biden campaign has spent most of their resources on tv ads.  I feel folks generally get tired after a while seeing the same TV/radio ad over and over again.  Trump's campaign has been less frequent on those ads and have invested more in strategic door knocking.  Plus, Trump's campaign use the rallies, which have been large, for the duel purpose of finding new contacts as well as volunteers to do the door knocking. Thus, the rallies allow Trump to find enthused new voters as well as enthused volunteers.   Nevertheless, all this is to say that Trump's campaign have more folks/resources to make sure that their vote comes to the polls, especially on Election Day.  I feel that will make the difference in several of these close battleground states where Trump appears to be surging.  In short, more interactive contact + high enthusiasm > passive contact + lower enthusiasm. 

• This will be a high turnout election, I am projecting 155 million votes.

• I feel with Trump's apparent surge, the Republicans in Senate fortunes have also improved, especially in NC, ME, GA, MN, MI, AZ and IA.  I project the GOP will win 52 seats (net loss of 1).

• Regarding the House,  Trump's surge in swing states such as MN, IA and PA will help the GOP win several swing districts in those areas.  Whether or not the GOP wins back control of the House, the GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats, depends on the results in swing districts in CA and NY.  I'm sensing a big issue in these areas are law enforcement and Covid.  I will say the GOP will gain 12 seats, which could ironically split the Democratic House Caucus between the moderates and progressives.

After we have a winner, I'll put together my post-mortem analysis.  Until then, it is what it is.