Election 2020: First Debate Reaction

 Well, I guess we can say that like it or not, the first 2020 Presidential Debate between Trump and Biden actually did happen.  So if you're not bored or disgusted by commentary of last night's debate, here's a few myopic observations:

• It didn't take long for this debate to fall off conventional script.  Chris Wallace, a journalist that I respect, made it known at question 2 that folks had to fit into their two minute boxes, When it was clear that Wallace was particularly forceful in trying to enforce that rule on Trump after Biden made a point, it was clear that Trump changed strategies on the fly and decided to use Wallace as a conduit to it.  Through creating adversarial interactions with Wallace, Trump got to control the situation and feeding his base's (as well as a notable amount of the general public) strong skepticism of the media.  It made me think that Trump wants to continue to enthuse his base by showing he's a bully that's fighting against the mainstream media and the Swamp in general.

• Trump and Biden's dialogue was anything but civil.  It was clear after Trump changed tactics that he wanted to force the strength of his presence and personality on Biden to manipulate Biden to lose his temper and make mistakes.  Biden, to avoid that, tried to avoid eye contact with Trump through much of the beginning of the debate.  But after the tenor of the dialogue turned into a food fight, Biden glanced over more often, but more to mock than engage.  

• How effective were Trump's tactics?  I think it was mixed bag.  
• Biden's temper did start to flare up multiple times as he called Trump as 'racist', 'clown' and said 'man' more often as the debate went on as the debate became more petty.  If one came into this debate thinking Biden was the more decent man with a better disposition to be President, I would think such actions would bring doubt to that assertion.  

• However, in pressing so hard, Trump missed several big opportunities to actually create distinctions with Biden and extol his accomplishments.  For example, on the race question, Trump went right to law and order and the economy, but not to his historic funding of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU); or the fact that while he commuted Alice Johnson's sentence for drug trafficking, Biden was a lead sponsor of the law that sentenced her to lifetime imprisonment.  Trump was pressing so hard that while he said 'sure' on the question on denouncing White Supremacists, it was not a very clear response.

• Another consequence in Trump's pressing so hard is that we really didn't get to feel the effect of Biden's answers.  For example, Trump asked Biden about a police union that has publicly endorsed him as Trump brags about the number of police unions endorsing him.  As Biden muttered weakly, Trump goes ahead continues to press.  If Trump just was silent for 10 more seconds, it would have exposed the effect that Biden couldn't think of a police union endorsement he received.  This happened multiple times on issues regarding Hunter Biden, packing the Supreme Court, law enforcement, etc.  If Trump had a few more pregnant pauses, he probably could have exposed more of Biden's lack of conviction in his positions.

• So why did Trump pursue such tactics? There are several reasons, but three in particular.  
• One, as my first point stated, it was to enthuse his base by using Wallace as his foil.  A key to Trump strategy is to maximize his base's enthusiasm.  One main tenant of Trump's strategy is to maximize enthusiasm so they will go out to vote.   The 'us against the establishment' game has worked quite well for Trump in that aspect and using Wallace as that establishment was very convenient.

• Two, Trump wants to raise Biden's unfavorability.  This is the another main tenet of Trump strategy.  In 2016, Trump was successfully able to raise Hillary Clinton's favorability to levels close if not higher than Trump's. So far he hasn't really been successful in raising Biden's favorability largely because Biden has largely been out in the public while spending large sums of money on ads presenting a positive image of him.  In the debate, Trump wanted to rattle Biden so Biden would lose his composure and make mistakes.  In that area, Trump was largely successful as stated above, Biden did call Trump names, as well as the worst president in US history (James Buchanan, anyone?).  By calling Trump names as well as showing obvious irritation, Biden's attempt to show himself as a return to decency in terms of temperament took a real hit. In addition, in doing that Biden also showed his age in his feeble retorts compared to Trump's strong personality. 

• Three, while Trump wants to enthuse his base, he also wanted to depress enthusiasm in Biden's base.  In regards to this goal, Trump had some success.  He got Biden to say he's not for defunding the police (accusing Trump of doing so), wouldn't say if he'd pack the Supreme Court and stated he wasn't for the Green New Deal (where his staff needed to correct he was for afterwards).  These types of statements won't really fire up the liberals in his party, especially those under 30 who have spent much of the year either flooding the streets or supporting those flooding the streets for various social causes.  In fact, it'll leave them more skeptical of Biden's authenticity and depress their enthusiasm.  Like him or not, Trump generally comes off as authentic, which makes it easier for him to create enthusiasm.  Biden still has a gap to fill to show voters he's authentic enough for their vote. Changing positions on the fly does not help there.

•  One last item I do want to address is the optics of Trump's pressing of Biden.  
• The general feeling I get from many folks and the news is that it shows that Trump just can't help himself from being a bully and it's quite untoward for a President to act that way.  Well, I can see their point.  However, most of the folks that I hear that are either/or college educated, white collar, and/or suburban in their background.  I don't think Trump was going after their vote, especially since they are a shrinking portion of the "swingable" electorate.  The appeal to suburban voters apparently went away with current Senator Mitt Romney, who won independents by still got crushed in his Presidential run. Trump's strongman tactics appeal to working-class and rural voters, which has more support from than the normal GOPer. 

• While currently much of Trump's base is White, Hispanics and Blacks (especially males) can relate to Trump's tactics, which is how Trump can expand his base.  Folks, just as much as working class folks like my father could relate to Trump's word salads,  Hispanics and Blacks in large part can relate to the multiple interruptions and bullying tactics of Trump's style in the debate.   In many a movie with Hispanics or Blacks featured in it as well as conversations I've heard on the street, their tone of debate/argument often goes the same way Trump pressed on his the debate.  They don't go into the argument trying to listen for two minute before a rebuttal.  They will inject when they see error and try to bury their debate opponent until their either get them to surrender or look very weak.  Strength and force is treasured in such conflicts and I don't find it odd when a Spanish-speaking Telemundo poll says nearly 2/3 of their voters say Trump won the debate, largely because they can relate to him and his tactics.

I will pass on a electoral map this week since I want to see the effects of this debate for a couple more days before coming to conclusions.  But don't worry, I will present one quite soon.

Until next time, it is what it is.