Ok, I admit my election prediction was off. As an analyst, I generally trust the numbers I see and that means the polls. Well, the polls were generally skewed very slightly in favor of Hillary leading up to the election. So the quantitative instinct in me overrode my gut instinct, which was illustrated in my past post.
The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states. What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012. Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary. In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points. However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald. So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012. What does that mean? The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.
- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide). I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election). That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points. So what am I saying? Buckle up folks! It could be a long Election Day evening.
I regret not listening more to my gut instinct in making my prediction, because what effectively happened was that Donald was effectively able to manipulate the electorate that was six million votes smaller, more white, less black and more Evangelical than Obama's 2012 victory year. In addition, the Donald was able to effectively tie or do slightly better than Mitt Romney or John McCain share of minority and gender specific vote, while Hillary did slightly worse amongst those groups.
However, and most surprisedly, the Donald earned the greatest share of Evangelical votes ever in the Pew Research polls history, beating Hillary 81%-16%. Yes folks, that's better than what George W Bush did in 2004 (78%). Additionally, the Donald won military members/veteran s by a 61%-34% margin, a bigger spread spread (+27%), than Romney ('12) (+20%), McCain (a former POW) ('08) (+10%) and GWB ('04) (+16%).
The Donald was able to create his victory by increasing his share among blue-collar voters. This tweet shows the magnitude of the Donald's success in this area:
The Donald's popularity with blue-collar voters is something I sensed very early in his campaign. Here's an excerpt I saw from a post from March of this year:
Many in the "establishment" appear vexed about how the Donald is doing so well. It's quite simple for me to understand. The Donald has proved adept at simplifying issues and getting the electorate passionate about them, specifically immigration, trade with China and overall dissatisfaction with the status quo......
However, the Donald is able to get voters passionate about issues in a way that make his supporters quite loyal to him. Additionally, the Donald is perfect rebellion candidate. Tired of political correctness? There's no question the Donald is politically incorrect. Tired of the old leadership in DC that gave us Iraq, Katrina, the 2008 Great Recession and Obamacare? The Donald rails against Iraq, incompetent leadership and Obamacare. The Donald simply knows how focus voters attitudes towards simple concepts.
Growing up working 12-16 days in my family restaurant and still working in one on a periodic basis has been a real benefit for me in analyzing this election. This experience has been especially helpful being a white collar professional with multiple graduate degrees. There is simply a cultural divide between blue collar Americans working in areas such as construction and small businesses who want folks to be blunt and straightforward with them and white collar Americans such lawyers, businessman and office professionals who try to think they understand things at a "deeper level." I could sense it whenever I would go back to work at the Golden Inn in Superior,WI and talk to patrons that they simply didn't trust Hillary and respected the Donald's bluntness. I don't think Superior was the only area in the country that felt that way.
So the result at end of the road is that the Donald has been the most successful GOP Presidential candidate in decades, winning a probable 306 electoral votes, the most a GOP candidate has earned since George HW Bush's 426 EV wipeout in 1988. But the NY Times summed it up best:
But even before a somber Mrs. Clinton delivered her concession speech on Wednesday, the Democratic Party was roiled by recriminations over why so many of its leaders had overlooked her flaws: those of a lackluster candidate who had been battered during decades in public life and had long struggled to appeal to white, working-class voters.
Many thought this election would leave the Republican Party reeling and divided. Instead, with Mrs. Clinton’s loss, it was the Democrats who found themselves bereft of high-profile leaders, relegated to the sidelines of power in Washington and bracing for arguments over their party’s philosophy and mission.
So GOP is in the strongest position they have been since before the Great Depression, with the GOP controlling all levels of government. Elections have consequences:
- The Supreme Court will likely remain in conservative control for the foreseeable future. In addition, the lower federal courts will receive an influx of conservative talent.
- A conservative agenda that includes repealing/replacing Obamacare, tax reform, business friendly regulations and expansion of gun rights is very likely. Perhaps some immigration reform as well.
-The Obama Legacy will be pretty much wiped out. Outside of legalized same-sex marriage, I don't know anything of the Obama legacy that is off limits. The President's Legacy right now looks to be largely confined to his new library in Chicago. We'll wait and see, of course.
So this election is over and it's time to move on. I just hope everyone respects the authority of our leaders, for they are the leaders that we deserve. But for the foreseeable future I'm going to be taking a break from politics on this space, for we all need a timeout. Have a great one!
