We're hours away from Election Day 2018. This midterm election has attracted much interest, vituperation and voter participation than any election I can remember. Typically, a midterm election has lower energy and voter participation than a Presidential election. This year is unique. In the 2014 midterm election, about 76 million folks voted. In this current midterm election, it's projected over 100 million folks will vote.
Much of this increased engagement on both sides surround the amount of emotional reaction that President Donald Trump provokes from the electorate. There's not really a middle ground for many when it comes to the opinions of the President. Every day appears to be a grudge match over the different forms of media.
In each midterm since World War 2, the President's party loses an average of 32 seats in the House of Representatives his first midterm election. Since the Democrats need 23 seats to gain the majority in the US House, the average would like mean Speaker Pelosi rises again. However, I get the feel that this election is not a typical midterm election due to the emotional issues during this campaign, particularly around the Justice Kavanaugh confirmation chaos and immigration. Both issues stirred up high emotions on both sides. I think these issues help the GOP more in the Senate than in the House since Senate races are much easier to nationalize than House races. However, there is so much energy for both sides that it's difficult to decipher where the momentum is currently heading. However, I will say that this certainly doesn't feel like the wave elections of 2006, 2008 or 2010. I simply think that while there has been much money poured into both sides of this campaign, the closing arguments on both sides are actually pretty weak.
Therefore, I think this election will ultimately come down to the quality of the candidates in each race and the effects of President Trump campaigning over the final month. I have to say, for a 71-year old, President Trump can really show a lot of energy in multiple places when he campaigns. As a campaigner, he's one of a kind because he elicit strong emotions with his provocative, yet simple statements. Many pundits say that the President's message alienate millennials and suburban women, especially when he talks about immigration. Well, I'm not so sure about that because I feel those groups are concerned about issues of security and rule of law. Plus, how apt are those groups are to vote in this election compared to other groups. I hear folks saying that millennials are 3 or 4 times more likely to vote than in 2014. Well, that was a low turnout election (37% total voter turnout, 76 million votes cast) and how does that compare to other groups in what looks to be a high turnout election? I really don't know. I also hear about the "education gap" that the GOP is having in that college educated voters are much more likely to vote for Democrats, perhaps by a 3/2 margin. I don't know what the gap really is, but I do know that about 60% of the country do not have a college degree. So it really depends on the turnout of each of those groups.
So what's my final prediction. I'll get right to the chase:
Senate: GOP gains 3 seats for a 54-46 margin. This will be a huge win for the President since it'll allow him to perhaps accelerate his nominations confirmed in both his Cabinet and the judiciary.
House: It's a tough call, the GOP will lose between 15-27 seats. Either way, the majority for either party will be less than 10 seats.
The wait is nearly over. In the end, we will get the government that we deserve.
