- The models were initially informed by misleading information from China, who were not transparent to any outside institution, the World Health Organization (WHO) included.
- As we learn more about the spread of the virus, it appears that it clearly affects specific populations the most: the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
- It appears now that the virus was probably present in the US well before any travel ban was in place since we are a country that takes in a large amount of international travelers. Thus we probably had community spread well before any cases were reported.
- Those models informed us to take draconian measures to slow down the spread, which it did. However, the spread is most prevalent in denser areas with a high use of public transit. This trend, along with being a favored spot of international travel, made NYC a prime candidate to be an utter hotspot, which it became.
- However, with the data that has come in since those models have been created. The revisions suggest that we can now adjust policy towards easing the restrictions based on the facts we have learned here: that the lack of testing early (Jan/Feb) on put the US behind the spread of the virus initially (there was an extensive article in the WSJ this past week that describe how HHS Sec Azar screwed up the development and scaling of the testing in January/February, which is probably why you haven’t seen him the last few weeks), that we know what types of areas are most prone for spread, the physical distancing measures effectiveness, and which populations are most vulnerable to mortality by this virus.
- Hence, I think we can now rely more on the direct data we’re currently receiving on the ground to determine where and how we can start re-opening parts of society. With wider availability of testing, we can more easily detect who had the virus, who has the virus and contain and isolate those folks from them who would be most vulnerable. We should not dictate the pace of re-opening by the number of new cases now that this is more new testing, but by the number of hospitalization and the rate of increase/decrease. Tens of thousands of health care professionals in MN alone have lost their jobs/furloughed due to unused medical facility space cleared out to expand capacity for COVID patients. I think the hospitals now have a good idea of how much time it would take to re-open that space if needed. Thus they should allow those folks go back to work for non Covid related procedures. And let the dentists go back to work.
This pandemic has really affected us all. I know folks that are out of work. My 70-year old mother struggling to balance protecting herself while keeping her restaurant open. Similar situations are many. Anxiety, boredom and stress are quite common in many households. But these times allow us time to seek proper perspective. What can we really control? Many of us can't control what happens at our job and at our homes outside of our personal decisions. For me, I let the Almighty take control of what I can't control. It's a day by day process for me and for at least many of you. Hang in there and try to focus that we're not truly alone if we seek a helper in situations.
