Midterm 2018

We're hours away from Election Day 2018.  This midterm election has attracted much interest, vituperation and voter participation than any election I can remember.  Typically, a midterm election has lower energy and voter participation than a Presidential election.  This year is unique.  In the 2014 midterm election, about 76 million folks voted.  In this current midterm election, it's projected over 100 million folks will vote. 

Much of this increased engagement on both sides surround the amount of emotional reaction that President Donald Trump provokes from the electorate.  There's not really a middle ground for many when it comes to the opinions of the President.  Every day appears to be a grudge match over the different forms of media.  

In each midterm since World War 2, the President's party loses an average of 32 seats in the House of Representatives his first midterm election.  Since the Democrats need 23 seats to gain the majority in the US House, the average would like mean Speaker Pelosi rises again. However, I get the feel that this election is not a typical midterm election due to the emotional issues during this campaign, particularly around the Justice Kavanaugh confirmation chaos and immigration.  Both issues stirred up high emotions on both sides. I think these issues help the GOP more in the Senate than in the House since Senate races are much easier to nationalize than House races. However, there is so much energy for both sides that it's difficult to decipher where the momentum is currently heading. However, I will say that this certainly doesn't feel like the wave elections of 2006, 2008 or 2010.  I simply think that while there has been much money poured into both sides of this campaign, the closing arguments on both sides are actually pretty weak.  

Therefore, I think this election will ultimately come down to the quality of the candidates in each race and the effects of President Trump campaigning over the final month.  I have to say, for a 71-year old, President Trump can really show a lot of energy in multiple places when he campaigns.  As a campaigner, he's one of a kind because he elicit strong emotions with his provocative, yet simple statements.  Many pundits say that the President's message alienate millennials and suburban women, especially when he talks about immigration.  Well, I'm not so sure about that because I feel those groups are concerned about issues of security and rule of law.   Plus, how apt are those groups are to vote in this election compared to other groups.  I hear folks saying that millennials are 3 or 4 times more likely to vote than in 2014.  Well, that was a low turnout election (37% total voter turnout, 76 million votes cast) and how does that compare to other groups in what looks to be a high turnout election?  I really don't know.  I also hear about the "education gap" that the GOP is having in that college educated voters are much more likely to vote for Democrats, perhaps by a 3/2 margin.  I don't know what the gap really is, but I do know that about 60% of the country do not have a college degree.  So it really depends on the turnout of each of those groups.

So what's my final prediction.  I'll get right to the chase:

Senate: GOP gains 3 seats for a 54-46 margin.  This will be a huge win for the President since it'll allow him to perhaps accelerate his nominations confirmed in both his Cabinet and the judiciary.

House: It's a tough call, the GOP will lose between 15-27 seats.  Either way, the majority for either party will be less than 10 seats.

The wait is nearly over.  In the end, we will get the government that we deserve.

A Trip Out West: Day 2 - Richard Nixon Presidential Library

Friday morning I traveled a shorter distance (about a 45 min trip) to Yorba Linda, California to visit the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, the 5th Presidential Library that I have visited.  I guess this is odd for a individual my age, for a couple docents told me that only geriatric folks generally have visited as many at my age.  

A smallish man of statute

Was told that the lawn is used throughout the year for receptions and weddings

President Nixon was a Duke Law grad.  What that had to do with his ethics I'll let you decide.

"I want Putin!" 

What I found interesting about this rendition of the Oval Office was that it was quite sterile.  It didn't have portraits of any previous Presidents, just one of a young General Washington over the fireplace.  As you can see, the desk is large with nothing in the bottom middle.  That's because he generally had someone across from him typing away or doing other work.

For a President who was in office for only 6 years, Nixon appointed 4 SCOTUS Justices: Warren Burger, Harry Blackmun, Lewis Powell and William Rehnquist.

Model of the Cabinet room.

Vietnam was a big issue when Nixon got into office

A copy of the daily casualties report Nixon received. Prompted Nixon to expedite efforts to end the war.

Nixon did spend a week in China opening up relations with them.  My dad always recalled that to me.  Makes one wonder if there's parallels to current times...

A short history of tape recording in the White House.  Taping had been going on since FDR.  Nixon removed all recording equipment, but re-installed it after he found the notetakers inhibiting his conversations.  Instead of having recording selected meetings, Nixon wanted everything to be recorded for his future memoirs and historical record.  However, Watergate scuttled that idea much like Haman building the gallows in the Book of Esther.

Much emphasis on Watergate

 The copy of the proclamation of Nixon's pardon

Pat and President Nixon gravesite

Nixon's birthplace, which apparently was a "kit home" that was bought from a catalog and put together in pieces.

For a man known to have quite the foul mouth, Nixon did have some words of wisdom.

A Trip Out West: Day 1 - Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

Wednesday night I traveled to LA to stay with my cousin for a couple days, primarily to watch a football game of his beloved University of Southern California Trojans.  However, I said that since I've gained momentum this year visiting Presidential libraries (Hoover and JFK this year) that we should go ahead and visit the two in southern California while I'm there.  So we left early Thursday morning (LA traffic is always terrible) to head to the Simi Valley to visit the Reagan Presidential Library

After about 2.5 hours in traffic (for about 80 miles), we finally arrived!

This library is the largest of any Presidential library I've visited.  It starts with this Spanish Courtyard when you walk towards the entrance.

"Glad to meet you, Mr. President!"

"Pleasure to meet you too, Mrs. First Lady!"

This Library is a very large complex, hanger pavillion the left side, library in the middle and memorial (not seen) on the right.

This library didn't focus too much on Reagan's life before politics.  There were relatively small sections about his upbringing, his interest in theatre and broadcasting and his movie career.  But things really begin to focus regarding his political career, from his work for Governor of California onward.

Reagan did write in a journal using very good script.

Do I look like a contender?

A large plane

A bit cozy inside

Chopper

Motorcade setup, interesting how vehicles change over the years

"Tear down this wall!" Yes, it's the actual Berlin Wall.

Not a bad view

The entire Brandenburg Gate speech

That famous section of that speech. Interesting how the pregnant pauses are inserted.

On the way out, we saw that history continues to be created.

The Reagan Library had a unique environment, presentation and experience. It did not shrink back on emphasizing Reagan's belief in mainstream conservative beliefs of smaller government, lower taxes and cutting regulations.  As I reflected on the way back into town, I was further convinced that Reagan had many similarities to the current President. Let me list them off:

• Both were notable media personalities before they entered politics;
• Both have had multiple marriages and multiple reports of infidelity against them;
• Both are known for their communication style, although they are different;
• Both advocate for the shrinking of the administrative state and lower taxes;
• Both have had strong political support from Christians, although neither is known for their churchgoing activity;
• Both became President at an older age; 
• Both are known for advocating space-centered national defense technology; and
• Both are known to have great political drive to get things down, especially in the area of international affairs. 

History is an interesting thing, just like this visit.

SCOTUS Thoughts: SCOTUS with Kavanaugh

Now that we are about a week into the current makeup of the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) with the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.  I want to present some initial thoughts on how the jurisprudence of the new SCOTUS could direct towards.  

I do not have additional thoughts on how Kavanaugh's confirmation went outside that it was a stark reminder of what happens when (1) decisions involve how much alcohol one consumes and (2) how debates go when we simply appeal to each other's lowest base natures.  I do think that it's best to try to move one and raise the standards of our dialogue.

The new John Roberts-led SCOTUS provokes these thoughts from me:

- Chief Justice Roberts is now considered the "swing-vote" on SCOTUS.  He's certainly to the right of retired Justice Anthony Kennedy.  However, while he may not vote for with the "liberal" bloc as often as Justice Kennedy, I feel he's quite chary to make sweeping decisions on very controversial issues like Roe vs. Wade and instead work towards more incrementalism that shifts the responsibility to the legislative branch like when he validated the individual mandate for Obamacare. 

- Areas where this SCOTUS would probably show a strong rightward shift I see are in these areas:

1) administrative law where regulatory agencies will most likely be reigned in from making regulatory decrees not specified through legislative mandate; 

2) gun ownership where there will probably be a large narrowing of what can be regulated, such as the scope of gun registration;

3) affirmative action where institutions (mainly in higher education) quotas based on race appear to be in great peril to be struck down at least for public institutions;

4) religious liberty in where folks can express their religious conscience in the public sphere, specifically in regards to forcing county clerks or business owners perform services outside of their conscience such as issuing services to LGBTQ individuals/couples.  However, I do not think Obergefell v Hodges will be overturned.

The issue of abortion is a tough one to predict.  While it appear the majority of SCOTUS would like to overturn Roe v Wade, I am skeptical they would actually do so.  First, I'm chary that Chief Justice Roberts would push the issue himself as he has some more leeway in what cases that SCOTUS will hear.  Second, I don't think that the other four Justices in the "conservative" bloc (Kavanaugh, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch) will push the issue either, especially since Kavanaugh has in the past has skirted around the issue when he had the opportunity to do so...

Now we also know that the deciding vote in Kavanaugh's confirmation, Sen. Susan Collins, gave a strong argument in her reasoning that he supports Kavanaugh because she believes he wouldn't overturn Roe v. Wade

There has also been considerable focus on the future of abortion rights based on the concern that Judge Kavanaugh would seek to overturn Roe v. Wade. Protecting this right is important to me. To my knowledge, Judge Kavanaugh is the first Supreme Court nominee to express the view that precedent is not merely a practice and tradition, but rooted in Article III of our Constitution itself. He believes that precedent “is not just a judicial policy … it is constitutionally dictated to pay attention and pay heed to rules of precedent.” In other words, precedent isn’t a goal or an aspiration; it is a constitutional tenet that has to be followed except in the most extraordinary circumstances.

The judge further explained that precedent provides stability, predictability, reliance, and fairness. There are, of course, rare and extraordinary times where the Supreme Court would rightly overturn a precedent. The most famous example was when the Supreme Court in Brown v. Board of Education overruled Plessy v. Ferguson, correcting a “grievously wrong” decision--to use the judge’s term--allowing racial inequality. But, someone who believes that the importance of precedent has been rooted in the Constitution would follow long-established precedent except in those rare circumstances where a decision is “grievously wrong” or “deeply inconsistent with the law.” Those are Judge Kavanaugh’s phrases.

As Judge Kavanaugh asserted to me, a long-established precedent is not something to be trimmed, narrowed, discarded, or overlooked. Its roots in the Constitution give the concept of stare decisis greater weight such that precedent can’t be trimmed or narrowed simply because a judge might want to on a whim. In short, his views on honoring precedent would preclude attempts to do by stealth that which one has committed not to do overtly.

Noting that Roe v. Wade was decided 45 years ago, and reaffirmed 19 years later in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, I asked Judge Kavanaugh whether the passage of time is relevant to following precedent. He said decisions become part of our legal framework with the passage of time and that honoring precedent is essential to maintaining public confidence.

Now there are arguments both sides on whether this is a correct or utterly robust argument that Kavanaugh wouldn't overturn Roe v. Wade.  But to me it shows that he at least really doesn't want to support tackling the issue.  However, he may be more prone to support greater local restrictions, such as the ones recently passed in Iowa, the "Heartbeat" bill, which bans abortion six weeks after conception outside of rape, incest and medical emergency.  This would be in fact what overturning Roe v. Wade would actually do, as I noted in a previous blog during this confirmation debate.

But as a Nobel Laureate once said, "The answer my friend, is blowin in the wind.."

The Reward Trip: Boston - Part 3 : Freedom Trail Cleanup, State House and Chinatown

Well, I arrived late Tuesday night not knowing what I'd see.  I have to say I saw quite a bit. My travels started early as I had breakfast with my Airbnb host, a lovely older lady, for a quite interesting conversation. Then I drove back from Portland, ME to the Charleston Navy Yard.  I was there to see the USS Constitution, is the oldest Naval ship that is still in the water, launched in 1797.  It was called "Old Ironsides" after a battle with a British ship named "HMS Guerriere," where cannon fire was bouncing off the sides of the ship. I went to visit the museum.

I wanted to go and board the USS Constitutions, but it was out of port.  I was told it was on it's way back when I saw it coming into the yard.

But I was told it'll still be a couple hours until I could board the ship.  So I decided to little go up the hill to see Bunker Hill, the site of the legendary Revolutionary War battle "Battle at Bunker Hill."

To get to the top of the monument, you have to climb up 294 stairs.  Here's the proof:

There's some nice views of Boston from the top:

After I climbed down the monument and Bunker Hill, I returned my rental vehicle and took the subway back to Boston Commons for a tour of the Massachusetts State House.

The Massachusetts State House is the 4th state house that I've toured (MN, TX, CO) being the others.  It's a quite interesting building with some interesting art:

George Washington in a Roman toga.

John Hancock

Boston Tea Party

James Otis's arguing the valid of writs (search warrants). A 26-year old John Adams was there to hear the 5 hour argument, which lost unanimously.  Adams took much of the substance of the argument for his own use through the rest of his political career.

Paul Revere's ride

The Landing of the Mayflower, which struck me for the amount of Christian theme still allowed to be seen to the largely secular Massachusetts populace.

After the tour, I walked down the Freedom Trail on my way to a wharf to pick up a ferry to head back to the Charlestown Navy Yard to board the USS Constitution.  On my journey I made a couple pit stops.

Next to King's Chapel is John Winthrop's grave

Behind Kings Church is the site of the oldest public school in America, Boston Latin School, established in 1635. 

I then walked back down to the local wharf to take a ferry ride back to the ship to head back to the Charleston Navy Yard and got some nice views:

Once I got back to the Charleston Navy Yard, I was able to board the USS Constitution:

Still trying to imagine 500 sailors on that ship.  Sounds like a public health disaster waiting to to happen.

So to end my journey, I decided to have dinner the right way, in Chinatown.

I confess, I ate it all.

So after 3 days in Boston, I am set to head back to Minnesota tomorrow.  I am grateful for this trip and gaining the knowledge of history through these experiences I am very grateful for how the Almighty has set events in America with impeccable timing.  From the Revolutionary War to averting worldwide nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, I believe the Almighty's hand was in the middle of it.  I also know that I should come back to Boston because I still have much to see, in both sites and people. See ya around!