Happy New Year (and a Few Words)

Well, it's been quite awhile since I last posted and I've recovered from my political overindulgence over this past election.  I think I've provided enough time for you to get over your appreciation or disdain for my myopic opinions.  I'll just say, I hope we can remain friends.

Now that we got that out of the way, I want to wish all of you a Happy New Year.  For me, 2016 was a year of surprises and stability.  Not only surprises in the political realm, but also in the personal one for me. 

It's been a year where....

- I've actually been able to stay with the same employer for an entire calendar year, which according to some is a minor miracle.  

- I was able to see growth in my family

- I was able to take my mom on a trip to Toronto, re-living and creating new experiences based on my family's last vacation when all 5 members were alive 30 years ago.

- Have felt and seen experiences where I have come to see the Almighty's hand at work more than ever.

Let's just quickly go back to my predictions at the beginning of this year: 

1)  After attending three weddings in 2015, I will attend one wedding in 2016 and that's because I'll be asked to work in that wedding.  I did not recall attending any weddings in 2016, so either I didn't or I have a steel sieve for a memory.

2) The SG BUTR will experience changes in 2016, but will have the same number of members at the end of 2016 as it does today. The BUTR did experiences changes, ... for now....

3) I will come close to achieving a significant life milestone by the end of 2016. Hmm, I have made significant progress over the past year to becoming debt free.  Enough to say that's my financial goal for 2017.

4) Donald Trump will not win the GOP nomination as he experiences a Howard Dean type meltdown a la 2004.  The Presidential Election will come down to Marco Rubio vs. Hillary Clinton and will be a bitter fight where the difference will be Clinton's experience and age working against her in combination with a slowing economy,  providing for a Rubio win.  The GOP will also hold on to Congress with the tailwinds of Rubio's success.  2016 was an odd year to say the least and I was wrong about this one as all political orthodoxy was thrown out the window as the Donald showed shrewd political instinct and an efficient communication style to become our President-elect.  

5) The Uber trend of cheaper cost taxi-type travel will drive consumers to demand even more automated version of transportation - robot controlled cars - by the end of 2016.
This idea has momentum, but now is also is facing government intervention.  So stay tuned for 2017.


6) I will make predictions on how the Minnesota Twins and Minnesota Golden Gopher football teams success in 2016, with 50 percent success.  I predicted successful for seasons for each, the Gopher football team was much more successful.


For 2017, I'll just have three predictions:

1) I will attend 3 weddings in 2017.  

2) I will be debt free by the end of 2017.

3) The SG BUTR will not have the same number of members at the end of 2017 as it does today.

Ok, enough of the predictions, how about some food for thought?  I was looking through a book by Edward McClelland titled "How to Speak Midwestern"  where he writes about the linguistic differences in lingo amongst Midwesterners for an outsider.  Here's some terms he found interesting:

Minnesota: 

Cake Eater: Edina resident, generally stereotyped as an affluent Twin Cities suburb.

The Chimney: The Northwest Angle, the isolated part of the state that is the only part of the continental US north of the 49th parallel.

612er: Twin Cities native traveling in outstate MN

Nodaker: North Dakotan

oh, sure: Less emphatic version of "you betcha"

Wisconsin: 

Mud Duck: a Minnesotan

Over Dere: That place being pointed towards

She:  An inanimate object, often mechanical.  "She's running good"

77 Square Miles Surrounded by Reality:  Madison, Wisconsin

Michigan

The Soo: Sault St. Marie, a border city of Canada on the north edge of Michigan

The Thumb: The area, shaped like a thumb, between Saginaw Bay and Lake St. Clair

TOOT: A Michigan Tech student who's not from the area.  Michigan Tech is located in Houghton, MI, a place in the Upper Peninsula where I have visited a friend going to school there in both the summer and the winter.  I'll just say I'd rather go there in the summer.

Urban Pioneer: A young white professional that moves to Detroit.

So there is some words for thought for now.  I pray you all have a happy and blessed 2017.

A Trip South (for work)

While the country while building tension around Election Day, I was down in Austin, Texas for the Tableau Conference via my employer. It was quite the full week.

Monday, I came to the Austin Convention Center to register and got comfortable.

Monday evening, Tableau hosted me and my bosses (VP and Manager) to a dinner at Fogo. I don't think I'll ever turn that down.

Yes, I did participate in much learning through presentation and technical hands-on training.

But I will say we were treated well, perhaps even sweetly...

Tableau also provided opportunities for social events.  I just went for the food and went back to the hotel.

The Conference ended Thursday afternoon. With the result of the election, how apropos was it that Bill Nye, the Science Guy, provided the final Keynote address.  The speech started off well....

Until he alluded to the election as "the end of the world."  He then went on to talk about how humans are responsible for climate change and how "climate change deniers" are scary folks.  Frankly, it didn't have much to do with analytics once he started.  The speech just turned into a political meltdown regarding the election, which did amuse me.

Right after the Conference, I decided to head 15 minutes up the street to one of my favorite activities when I'm in state capitols, visit the State Capitol. 

On Friday, I took the day going up to the University of Texas.

On the University of Texas campus is the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library.  Since it was Veterans Day, admission was free to tour the museum portion.  Yes, it was worth every penny.

Touring through LBJ, I really came to realize how activist an Administration President Johnson ran.  Not only was he a FDR Socialist with his advocation of building new Cabinet departments (Housing and Urban Development) and entitlement programs (Medicare, Medicaid) through his Great Society programs, but he was quite the neoconservative as seen through the Vietnam War.  He also enacted laws regarding voting rights and gun control. He was no doubt a paradigm changing figure during his Presidency.  

So I took a picture of a replica of the Oval Office at the Library/Museum.

So as left the building, I ran into a gallery of Presidents and First Ladies.  I saw them all and it was well done, but my final memory was seeing this..

As the past held, the future portends... 

(I wonder what Donald and Melania Trump's portraits will look like).

Election Musings: Yes, It's Finally Over!

Ok, I admit my election prediction was off.  As an analyst, I generally trust the numbers I see and that means the polls.  Well, the polls were generally skewed very slightly in favor of Hillary leading up to the election.  So the quantitative instinct in me overrode my gut instinct, which was illustrated in my past post.

The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states. What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012. Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary. In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points. However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald. So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012. What does that mean? The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.

- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide). I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election). That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points. So what am I saying? Buckle up folks! It could be a long Election Day evening.

I regret not listening more to my gut instinct in making my prediction, because what effectively happened was that Donald was effectively able to manipulate the electorate that was six million votes smaller, more white, less black and more Evangelical than Obama's 2012 victory year.  In addition, the Donald was able to effectively tie or do slightly better than Mitt Romney or John McCain share of minority and gender specific vote, while Hillary did slightly worse amongst those groups.  

However, and most surprisedly, the Donald earned the greatest share of Evangelical votes ever in the Pew Research polls history, beating Hillary 81%-16%.  Yes folks, that's better than what George W Bush did in 2004 (78%).  Additionally, the Donald won military members/veteran s by a 61%-34% margin, a bigger spread spread (+27%), than Romney ('12) (+20%), McCain (a former POW) ('08) (+10%) and GWB ('04) (+16%).

The Donald was able to create his victory by increasing his share among blue-collar voters. This tweet shows the magnitude of the Donald's success in this area:

The Donald's popularity with blue-collar voters is something I sensed very early in his campaign.  Here's an excerpt I saw from a post from March of this year:

Many in the "establishment" appear vexed about how the Donald is doing so well. It's quite simple for me to understand. The Donald has proved adept at simplifying issues and getting the electorate passionate about them, specifically immigration, trade with China and overall dissatisfaction with the status quo......

However, the Donald is able to get voters passionate about issues in a way that make his supporters quite loyal to him. Additionally, the Donald is perfect rebellion candidate. Tired of political correctness? There's no question the Donald is politically incorrect. Tired of the old leadership in DC that gave us Iraq, Katrina, the 2008 Great Recession and Obamacare? The Donald rails against Iraq, incompetent leadership and Obamacare. The Donald simply knows how focus voters attitudes towards simple concepts.

Growing up working 12-16 days in my family restaurant and still working in one on a periodic basis has been a real benefit for me in analyzing this election.  This experience has been especially helpful being a white collar professional with multiple graduate degrees.  There is simply a cultural divide between blue collar Americans working in areas such as construction and small businesses who want folks to be blunt and straightforward with them and white collar Americans such lawyers, businessman and office professionals who try to think they understand things at a "deeper level."  I could sense it whenever I would go back to work at the Golden Inn in Superior,WI and talk to patrons that they simply didn't trust Hillary and respected the Donald's bluntness.  I don't think Superior was the only area in the country that felt that way.

So the result at end of the road is that the Donald has been the most successful GOP Presidential candidate in decades, winning a probable 306 electoral votes, the most a GOP candidate has earned since George HW Bush's 426 EV wipeout in 1988.  But the NY Times summed it up best:

But even before a somber Mrs. Clinton delivered her concession speech on Wednesday, the Democratic Party was roiled by recriminations over why so many of its leaders had overlooked her flaws: those of a lackluster candidate who had been battered during decades in public life and had long struggled to appeal to white, working-class voters.

Many thought this election would leave the Republican Party reeling and divided. Instead, with Mrs. Clinton’s loss, it was the Democrats who found themselves bereft of high-profile leaders, relegated to the sidelines of power in Washington and bracing for arguments over their party’s philosophy and mission.

So GOP is in the strongest position they have been since before the Great Depression, with the GOP controlling all levels of government.  Elections have consequences:

- The Supreme Court will likely remain in conservative control for the foreseeable future.  In addition, the lower federal courts will receive an influx of conservative talent.

- A conservative agenda that includes repealing/replacing Obamacare, tax reform, business friendly regulations and expansion of gun rights is very likely.  Perhaps some immigration reform as well.

-The Obama Legacy will be pretty much wiped out.  Outside of legalized same-sex marriage, I don't know anything of the Obama legacy that is off limits.  The President's Legacy right now looks to be largely confined to his new library in Chicago.  We'll wait and see, of course.

So this election is over and it's time to move on.  I just hope everyone respects the authority of our leaders, for they are the leaders that we deserve.  But for the foreseeable future I'm going to be taking a break from politics on this space, for we all need a timeout.  Have a great one!

Election 2016 Final Prediction

It's been a long campaign and it'll shortly be over.  Here's my final Electoral College map.

Senate

50/50

House

230/205 GOP/Dem

For election night, I say you get some popcorn and enjoy the results.  I will be enjoying the following from South Carolina.

In the end, we will get the government we deserve.  So enjoy your evening and I appreciate your comments and support.

Election Musings

Down the stretch they come....

We're a couple days from election day and we really don't have a great idea on what's going to happen.  I really have just noticed a couple things though.

- The Donald over the past three weeks has become a much more disciplined campaigner.  He's focused on the issues of corruption, Obamacare and the need for change.  This has given the electorate a chance to focus more on Hillary than on him.  It has also allowed many GOPers who were hesitant to support him, especially after the Access Hollywood video, to "come home" as they see him as the only thing between Hillary alleged cronyism and corruption and doing real harm to the country.   He's been energized on the stump and expanding the map of where he's campaigning.  As of this moment he's giving a speech to folks Minneapolis-based Sun Country's airport hanger in front of thousands of folks expanding outside the hanger.  It has all the feel of a surging campaign.

In contrast, Hillary has lately been gong to states that have long been Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Pennsylvania largely talking about how terrible a person the Donald is.  Not exactly the rhetoric of a campaign trying to inspire folks to vote for her rather than enrage folks to vote against Donald.

- The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states.  What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012.  Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary.  In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points.  However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald.  So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012.  What does that mean?  The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.

- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide).  I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election).  That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points.  So what am I saying?  Buckle up folks!  It could be a long Election Day evening.

Tomorrow I'll give my final predictions for the Presidency and Congress.  But I have to say this long road is has been entertaining, agonizing and insightful in a view of our society. We will get the government we deserve.

South Carolina... Memorable

This past weekend I was in South Carolina to visit friends and to get away from the office. It was a great weekend of relaxation, fun and fellowship.

I arrived in Greenville, South Carolina on Friday, picked up my rental car and drove to Camden, a town about 40 minutes outside Columbia.  I was visiting a good friend of mine and it was great fellowship of not just him but his dog also.  I guess my friend's dog felt quite relaxed around me.

On Saturday, my friend and I spent the day doing something many in the South enjoy, watch football.  We traveled down to Columbia to watch the Tennessee vs. South Carolina football game.  I'll just say the energy behind watching SEC football (division where both teams play) is much higher than anything I've experienced (outside of watching the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs win the National Title :) ).

On Sunday, I left one friend to meet a few others back in Greenville.  A very nice city which I really didn't see much of in this trip.  I went to church there and was able to take a walk in the park.

On my way back to the airport on Monday, I was able to spend a little time at Bob Jones University touring the Jerusalem Room, which is a local replica of the one in Westminster Abby in London.  In the Jerusalem Room, it's a small exhibit of the history of Bible, emphasis on the King James Version, which I read regularly.  It was well put together.

Great hosts, great weather and great places to go and see made this an A+ weekend.  My only regret is there are so many things I wasn't able to see.  I guess I'll have to come back.....

Election Musings

I'm currently in the middle of a busy time for me.  Over the next month, I'll be traveling for 14 of them, including on Election Day.  So I got a few musings:

- I have to say that the reaction to my last post regarding my decision of who to vote for was much more respectful that it was 4 years ago when I voted for Gary Johnson.  I suspect at least a few of those who said I was wasting my vote in 2012 went ahead this year and did what I encouraged everyone to do in 2012...vote your strongest preference, even if they are not on the ballot.  As Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan would say... the Times are a Changin'.

- So what do I think where the race is right now?  There's a dichotomy between what my mind says and what I see.  What my mind says is that Hillary is well on her way to a landslide victory of Obama 2008 proportions.  I think she's effectively been able to define the Donald to the broader public as a man who does not have the sensitivity, judgment and temperament to lead the Free World.  The Donald hasn't exactly helped himself either by easily diverted from a consistent, disciplined message on the issues by extensively trying to defend himself against vituperative charges on his character.  

However, what I see is much different.  When I talk to many of those from my church and whatnot, the Donald is crude man who fits much of the characterization that Hillary has effectively defined him.  There's a real struggle for many of them in choosing who to support, certainly not enthusiastically support for either Hillary or the Donald in those circles.  However, when I travel outside that circle, mainly to NE Minnesota, the attitude changes.  It pretty much is defined by a conversation I had with my mother over breakfast last week.  My mom is one that only has voted in one election in her life and certainly is not motivated to vote in this one.  But in her blunt style, she said that "Hillary is a liar. Donald is excessively honest on what he thinks."  That's pretty much what I hear when I talk to folks up there: Neither of them are saints, but at least Donald will tell you what he thinks and that we can trust.  As I drive around in the Twin Ports area, I was surprised by how many Trump signs I saw posted up there.  Many more than Hillary ones for sure.  So it wasn't a surprise to me when I recently saw this news:

Also in MN 8th District, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 35%.

— Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) October 24, 2016

Another tidbit was today I was eating dinner at the Olive Garden when I overheard a conversation of a geriatric couple sitting at a table next to me talking about the election. They basically said that Hillary was a criminal and that the Donald is getting the short end of the stick from the media.  They were wondering if Hillary could be impeached if she was elected for the crimes she allegedly committed.  Interesting conversations I hear about when I eat alone.

Those tidbits and the sight of the size and energy of the Donald's rallies make me think that his base is very enthused and will definitely vote.  However, this is a Presidential election, not a midterm.  Unless the Donald brings in many voters who haven't voted before, I just don't see him winning this point.  But we have seen many strange things in this election, haven't we?

Here's my current map, based on my head knowledge:

It's interesting times, don't you think?

My Decision 2016

Last Friday, I took a half day off to fulfill several civic duties. I paid my property taxes, renewed my drivers license and, alas, went and cast my vote in Election 2016.  

Minnesota now allows voters to vote early absentee without a rationale.  However, I will be out of state on Election Day, so that didn't really matter to me.  I was surprised to see that outside of the Federal and legislative races, there was a lack of races to vote in this year.  What also surprised me is how busy the polling place is as I saw a steady flow of folks fill out absentee applications and ballots.   But the decision has been made and here is my rationale and my decision.

Taxes - My personal view on taxes is very simple, it should efficiently collect revenue and not distort personal decisions.  Hence I would favor a tax system that eliminates most deductions, provides credits accessible to everyone for items such as charity and home ownerships, provide fewer income tax brackets (3 or fewer) at low rates and taxes consumption at a low rate.  Such a system would efficiently collect revenue, provide fairness through the tax brackets and encourage savings.  I say this would be the area where the Donald's most in line with my thinking since he's eliminating deductions on items such as carried interest (which hedge fund managers gain much income from) and lowering tax rates across the board.  So mark this one in favor for the Donald.

Abortion - I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  The Donald has run as a pro-life candidate.  He's campaigned as only permitting abortion in cases of rape and incest.  It sounds like a reasonable position to many, but like I said, I'm pro-life, pure and simple.  I recall a speech by a lady while I was in high school talking about the dangers of domestic violence, including rape.  My fellow students were just droning off this lady speaking to us wasting our time.  That was until near the end of her talk when she talked about the dangers rape and resulting pregnancies from it.  She then said, "I'm a child of rape."  Well, that changed the mood in the auditorium, as well as caught my attention.  She talked about how much love it takes for a rape victim to have a child and give it up for adoption.  That solidified my view that all life has some value, even in times of rape and incest.  This is where I disagree with the Donald.  However, if specific states have a different view, they are free to enforce that, but I do not agree that legal abortion should be allowed at the federal level. 

Trade - I admit it, I believe in open, global markets.  I think free trade in general is a good thing.  It allows us to control inflationary pressures, encourages innovation and increases competition, which I believe promotes growth.  Hillary positions on trade apparently depends on political gains she can get from it, so she's not credible on that issue.  The Donald has gone protectionist on this issue.  Saying that he'll renegotiate trade deals and will enact tariffs for companies that leave the country and try to sell them back into the country.  I'm generally against retaliatory tariffs because it creates incentives for a trade war which raises the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliate, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations.  These are things that accelerated the onset of the Great Depression if not cause it.  

The Donald also talks about losing jobs as outsourcing occurs.  Well, I would argue that most of the job losses occur come due to the innovations that occur through competition, which displaces folks in inefficient industries and creating jobs in efficient industries such as technology and services.  The idea that keeping companies here by itself will save jobs is incomplete since it doesn't take into account the cost of production and the shrinkage or inputs available in more efficient industries that could increase standards of living and higher wages.  

The Donald also talks about huge trade deficits hurting America.  I disagree with that view. A trade deficit is not debt so much as foreigners spending more money in America than America spending in foreign lands.  So in my mind this "trade deficit" is a "capital account surplus"  of money and goods invested into America.  This investment means expansion of existing businesses, more new businesses, higher worker productivity, and more output enhancing activities, such as research and development, all of which increase prosperity.

Immigration - I think the security of this country is important and that immigration policy is central to it.  However, as a child of immigrants, I am sensitive to those who are against very restrictive border controls.  My belief is this, there should be a utmost emphasis on enforcement and controlling our borders against terrorists, refugees from terrorist states and excessive low-skilled labor.  However, I believe once the borders have been controlled, we should have clear set of criteria of who we grant citizenship.  The Donald is strong on the enforcement side, but vague on the citizenship side outside of "extreme vetting."  So I basically see this a cake with a doughy middle.

Foreign policy - I admit I used to be an global interventionist on foreign policy.  That was until my sister was sent to Iraq and I paid closer attention to it and how it was run so badly.  I'm now the opposite, a Realpolitik non-interventionist who sees relations as driven by what's in America's best interest. I am not confident that our government can conduct military offenses like Iraq correctly, so let's hold back on military intervention until we are certain not doing so directly harms American interests.

So these are the main issues that I weighed going into my decision.  While I have great respect for many of the positions the Donald has in these areas, I really am bothered by his trade rhetoric because it so much distorts the economic effects of free trade.  I am convinced that if such policies were enacted, it would really have detrimental economic effects on this country in higher input costs and lower standards of living due to lack of innovation and productivity.  Therefore, I couldn't vote for the Donald.   I also of the thought everyone should vote their strongest preference because their individual vote has a marginal difference and we should vote for someone we have the strongest belief in.  In 2012 that man was Gary Johnson.  However, 2016 Gary is much more liberal, especially on social issue, than 2012 Gary, so I could not vote for him.  Since I decided that should vote for someone on the ballot in the Presidential election, I decided to vote for the Constitutional Party candidate, Darrell Castle.   

I recall much ridicule in 2012 for announcing my vote publicly, but I am not holding back.  Please make your own decision based on your strongest preference.  It is privilege that you should be honored to exercise.

Second Presidential Debate Reaction

So debate number two in the books, some quick thoughts:

- It's clear to me that the Donald has decided since many in the media and even the GOP leadership have become hostile to him, that he'll run his campaign the way he likes it: the Donald vs. the Machine (e.g. the media and the Establishment).  Throw out all the rules of common discourse and normal campaign tactics.  In short, the Donald says "Bring it on!"  

- The Donald, in that vein, was quite effective in persecuting his case against Hillary.  Everyone knew that he had to answer the question regarding the lewd comments in the 2005 Access Hollywood video.  He effectively quickly deflected it by apologizing and pivoting to all the issues that dog Hillary such as her emails, Benghazi, the rise of ISIS and her untrustworthiness.  He also set up his defense by trolling the media to attend a press conference where alleged victims of Bill and Hillary, which took away from the effectiveness of Hillary taking the moral women high ground.  How do I know, look at this picture:

That's just Bill, it also looked to me that during the debate that Hillary did not look as on her game as she did in the first debate.

- Hillary was much more defensive through much of this debate.  Apparently she does not do well in town hall formats for she does not connect well personally with voters and is much more likely to act defensively when a hostile question comes her way.  Many times the best she could do was give a smile or smirk.  However, perhaps it's just me, but whenever she did that her excessive lipstick really made that smile/smirk seemed forced. The Donald did much to keep on the defensive through aptly pivoting every question about him into an attack on her.

- In short, I think the Donald did what he had to: stabilize  his own campaign and start changing the narrative away from focusing on him and more on Hillary.  However, he still has a long way to go if he's going to win this race.  His performance has enthused his base, which is quite important right now.  However, I'm starting to think that his best shot to win this race is not to convince swing voters to vote for him so much as getting folks who haven't voted before so fired up about Hillary's political opportunism, ambition and acts of corruption that they will show up to the polls.  Such a strategy was key to the success of Brexit where Britain voted itself out of the European Union, defying the political polls.  

- I would like to note that the polls currently on average have the Donald behind by 5 or more points.  Many of the Donald's supporters say that the polls are unreasonably skewed favorably to voters favorable to Hillary.  I'm of the view that the polls are generally accurate for the folks they sample.  Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic, so it can change over time.  The polls were generally right in 2012, 2008 and 2004.  So unless they are proven wrong, we should consider an average of them that use rigorous scientific methods.

- Finally, the time has come for me to make a decision.  On Friday, October 14, I will head down to cast my vote.  I will let you know who I voted for and my reasons after I cast my decision.

Election Musings

Quite the week huh?

- Friday was quite the news dump.  One was the Wikileaks dump of alleged John Podesta (Hillary's campaign chairman) emails that hold large excerpts of Hillary's Wall Street speeches.  The basic story here is that Hillary speaks to the audience in regards to what gives her the greatest personal gain.  She'll say in public that we're vetting refugees well enough to keep out jihadist but tell a private audience that such a thing is impossible.  Signs of what folks think of Hillary: untrustworthy and politically ambitious for power.  It's pretty revealing stuff, in my myopic opinion.

The other news is an Access Hollywood video of the Donald on a 'hot mic' making lewd comments about women, how he'd lusts after them and grope them. Such action is abominable behavior in every sense of decency.  But like Hillary, it just ratifies what many think of the Donald: a man who speaks his mind, many times out of the bounds of decent behavior.  It's a big reason why both candidates are so unpopular.  

The main difference between the news dumps is that most of the media's attention is on the Donald's comments.  I think largely due to two things: (1) folks are instinctively interested to talk or hear about about carnal things (whether they admit it or not) and; (2) GOP politicians and machinery has been quoted of jumping ship from the Donald.  It's the way our society and culture sees things, as hypocritical as perhaps many of those behaviors are to the critics who bring them up.

So how does this change the race?  Well, it'll just much nastier.  I think initially the Donald will lose support, but the news cycle moves so quickly that this may in fact be a short term story.  In fact, we're shortly going to have a couple more debates and a whole bunch of new revelations I'm quite confident will happen.  So I'm thinking that Hilary has a 90% chance of winning, perhaps in a landslide.  But if we know anything about the Donald, it's that he's pretty effective when he's underestimated.

A few changes in my map to demonstrate a shift towards Hillary in a couple swing states, but we still have a month till election day.

 

Trip with Mom - North of the Border

This time last week I was north of the border, in Toronto, going a short trip with my mother.  Toronto was the last trip my family went on together, about 30 years ago when I was about 8 years old.  Much has happened since then, specifically my family has gotten smaller (my sister Becky and my father died).  So I thought this would be a good time to revisit old memories and enjoy the city with the one of the largest Chinatown in North America.

My mom and I on the plane over:

Once we got to Toronto, we went directly to Chinatown.  Along the streets of Spadina and Dundas:

One thing we did in Chinatown is eat.... A lot!

The following day we went to CN Tower in Downtown Toronto:

Quite the view, 1,400 feet up.

The next day, my mom and I went out to Niagara Falls.  We first stopped at the town of Niagara-on-the-Lake.  It's a sleepy town with neighborhood shops surrounded by vineyards.  Told that residents of the town are quite affluent and that buses are not allowed to drive through town due to environmental concerns.  It's a cozy spot.

It even has a store that sells Christmas items all year:

I found a hotel in town where Queen Elizabeth's mom stayed.  A room there is $900 a night. (Tea and scones were available for $20 though). Above my pay grade, as a famous man said.

Well, we did move on towards Niagara Falls, I decided to stop the bus and take a picture at a Floral Clock along the way...

We did make it to the Falls eventually.

My mother and I took a boat along the edge of the Falls, a horseshoe trip which we got a poncho, but still got very wet.

In short, it was a successful trip.  My mom told me that we should head back to Toronto every year.  I'm grateful to have had this opportunity to spend with her.  These were moments to cherish.  

"I know that there is no good in them, but for a man to rejoice, and to do good in his life. And also that every man should eat and drink, and enjoy the good of all his labour, it is the gift of God." - Ecclesiastes 3:12-13

First Presidential Debate Reaction

So the first presidential debate is over, here are my thoughts:

1) In short, I don't think this debate really changes the opinions of those who had a preference coming in to the debate.  A Hillary supporter will believe that Hillary showed greater command on the issues, the Donald is shady and prejudiced man and has a better temperament suited for a president.  A Donald support will believe the Donald made the case of change from many years of Hillary's incompetence and the establishment in general and showed the country that he can be seen as plausible president.  In my myopic opinion, I thought that while Hillary made more concise points on policy, she discounted that by her references to fact checkers and personal attacks on the Donald.  The Donald, while staying on message that Hillary has made many bad decisions over many years, discounted that advantage by being overly defensively about charges made at him, especially about the Birther issue and his tax returns (do we really want our time used during the debate to hear the Donald talk about his assets?). So in the end, I don't really thing it'll move the needle too much one way or another.

2) Watching this debate really illuminates the cultural differences between blue collar and white collar life in this country.  When I watching this debate, I was trying to think of watching it in two prisms.  One is how I as a white collar professional would view the debate and the other is how I would as a blue collar worker growing up working in a restaurant (and occasionally still working in one) would view the debate.  I find the contrast quite stark.  

- White Collar - I would find the Donald's language and body language quite sloppy and immature.  Outside of some points on trade and tax policy, there was a glaring lack of sophistication in his policy knowledge.  His temperament when being challenged by the moderator and Hillary shows his lack of meekness and lack of qualification to be president. In contrast, Hillary showed greater command for the policy issues and greater composure.  However, her personal attacks on the Donald were quite off putting, especially when she vituperated against him.  But all in all, Hillary won the debate on points and composure.

- Blue Collar - I would find the Donald's language is simple and blunt in talking about the failure of the elites like Hillary to address the needs of everyday folks that I know.  The Donald is right to talk about how elites like Hillary live by a different set of rules than most American. He's also right to show that Hillary has made many mistakes that have adversely affected America.  How dare Hillary assert that I'm a bigoted person based on her life of living in the upper crusts of society.    Now while the Donald's lack of transparency regarding his tax returns is troubling, I see that he really is talking about the issues important to me.  

3) The moderator, Lester Holt, has become a lighting rod for the Donald's supporters for the way he prodded the Donald on issues such as stop and frisk, his tax returns, the Birther issue and his support on the Iraq war.  Plus, Holt never pressed Hillary on the Clinton Foundation, Benghazi nor her handling of classified information.  I didn't think that Holt did anything I didn't expect would happen and he does have a tough job.  However, Holt's actions is probably a gift to the Donald, who can continue to use the media's treatment of him to gin up the high enthusiasm of his supporters.  Perhaps that's why he was winning so many online post-debate polls.

4)  I have the say that the body language of both candidates left much to be desired.  The Donald's frequent sniffles (he denies he was), eye rolls and just overall looks of disgust of whatever Hillary was saying was noteworthy.  However, Hillary's smiling and smirking, made more obvious by excessive makeup and lipstick, made it appear that she was quite condescending to the debate and whatever the Donald has to say.  In fact, the small "shimmy" reaction to one of the Donald's answers made that attitude even more obvious.  Each side I think lost some points through how they looked when they were not talking.

So there it is, my post-debate reaction.  I don't think this will show a real shift in the trajectory of the race since events happen so quickly and the spin machines are running at full blast right now.  But it makes the next two debates much more intriguing in my mind.

However, I have decided that I will be voting early this year.  I'll let you know how that goes.

Quick Musings

I have a few quick items:

- The first presidential debate is tomorrow night.  Audience estimates have been huge: some have estimated over 100 million viewers, which would be Super Bowl levels. I plan to watch this debate eating popcorn purchased from Candyland, a great downtown St. Paul establishment. I will put forward my reactions to the debate shortly after it occurs, but I thought I'd give a a few thoughts on how I think each candidate, Hillary and the Donald, want themselves to be seen as leaders by the electorate, not my own view of them.  A myopic opinion for sure, but this is based on my observations:

Hillary - Competent, experience leader in challenging times is what I think her campaign is presenting. Working in the policy realm over multiple decades in issues such as children's education ("It takes a village") to combating terror (in the room to see the assassination of Osama bin Laden), Hillary is well prepared for this job.  If you want a leader that can keep a steady hand on the wheel in stormy seas, Hillary is the one.

Donald - Someone who gets things done.  Having to take on a variety of situations in business, the Donald has generally succeeded in getting things to work out well for him.  He may not know all the variables going in, but he's able to decipher the information quickly and come out with the best possible solution.  As President, the Donald would not necessarily have a strong preference on how something gets done, but his success as a negotiator will allow him to get things done that will be beneficial for America.  He'll do this by have an initial position of what his desired end result, then taking in information from a variety of sources and negotiating a deal to get as close to that result as possible.  I recall taking a class in business school on negotiation, it's quite the skill to develop.  The Donald is confident his negotiation skills will get what he wants done.

So the key will be after the first debate, who will be able to project his/her wanted image the best to the electorate.  Stay tuned.

- Other piece of news is that I'll be in Toronto the second half of this week traveling with my mother.  I look forward to it.  I will give a report when I have a chance.