Election Musings

Quite the week huh?

- Friday was quite the news dump.  One was the Wikileaks dump of alleged John Podesta (Hillary's campaign chairman) emails that hold large excerpts of Hillary's Wall Street speeches.  The basic story here is that Hillary speaks to the audience in regards to what gives her the greatest personal gain.  She'll say in public that we're vetting refugees well enough to keep out jihadist but tell a private audience that such a thing is impossible.  Signs of what folks think of Hillary: untrustworthy and politically ambitious for power.  It's pretty revealing stuff, in my myopic opinion.

The other news is an Access Hollywood video of the Donald on a 'hot mic' making lewd comments about women, how he'd lusts after them and grope them. Such action is abominable behavior in every sense of decency.  But like Hillary, it just ratifies what many think of the Donald: a man who speaks his mind, many times out of the bounds of decent behavior.  It's a big reason why both candidates are so unpopular.  

The main difference between the news dumps is that most of the media's attention is on the Donald's comments.  I think largely due to two things: (1) folks are instinctively interested to talk or hear about about carnal things (whether they admit it or not) and; (2) GOP politicians and machinery has been quoted of jumping ship from the Donald.  It's the way our society and culture sees things, as hypocritical as perhaps many of those behaviors are to the critics who bring them up.

So how does this change the race?  Well, it'll just much nastier.  I think initially the Donald will lose support, but the news cycle moves so quickly that this may in fact be a short term story.  In fact, we're shortly going to have a couple more debates and a whole bunch of new revelations I'm quite confident will happen.  So I'm thinking that Hilary has a 90% chance of winning, perhaps in a landslide.  But if we know anything about the Donald, it's that he's pretty effective when he's underestimated.

A few changes in my map to demonstrate a shift towards Hillary in a couple swing states, but we still have a month till election day.