We're a couple days from election day and we really don't have a great idea on what's going to happen. I really have just noticed a couple things though.
- The Donald over the past three weeks has become a much more disciplined campaigner. He's focused on the issues of corruption, Obamacare and the need for change. This has given the electorate a chance to focus more on Hillary than on him. It has also allowed many GOPers who were hesitant to support him, especially after the Access Hollywood video, to "come home" as they see him as the only thing between Hillary alleged cronyism and corruption and doing real harm to the country. He's been energized on the stump and expanding the map of where he's campaigning. As of this moment he's giving a speech to folks Minneapolis-based Sun Country's airport hanger in front of thousands of folks expanding outside the hanger. It has all the feel of a surging campaign.
In contrast, Hillary has lately been gong to states that have long been Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Pennsylvania largely talking about how terrible a person the Donald is. Not exactly the rhetoric of a campaign trying to inspire folks to vote for her rather than enrage folks to vote against Donald.
- The polls are quite tight nationally and in the battleground states. What I've seen throughout the polling is that the margin depends on how similar the electorate looks to 2012. Polls that use those types of assumptions of a electorate like 2012 generally have been more favorable to Hillary. In 2012, self-identified Democrats outnumbered GOPers by 7 percentage points. However, if you have an electorate closer to 2004 when GWB beat John Kerry (50/50 Dems/GOP), the more favorable the poll is to the Donald. So the key here for the Donald is for the electorate to be more like 2004 than 2012. What does that mean? The more blue collar, more white and more Christian voters that make up the electorate, the better it is for the Donald.
- I've been hearing that this election reminds folks of either 2012 (small Obama national lead but large Electoral Vote victory) or 1980 (Carter loses lead late to Reagan and loses by a landslide). I'm actually starting to think this election is looking more like 2000 (GWB leading the polls, but Al Gore has a late surge to effectively tie the election). That electorate was Democrats outnumbering GOPers by 4 percentage points. So what am I saying? Buckle up folks! It could be a long Election Day evening.
Tomorrow I'll give my final predictions for the Presidency and Congress. But I have to say this long road is has been entertaining, agonizing and insightful in a view of our society. We will get the government we deserve.
Yep. This seems about right.
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