Friday, October 23, 2020

Election 2020 - Last Presidential Debate

The final Presidential Debate of 2020 has happened.  In fact, it is very likely the final electoral debate we'll see both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have in their lives.  Compared to the first debate, this debate had a much more civil tone.  However, in my myopic opinion, this debate will have a much more defining impact in this race. Why?  Because there are multiple defining moments that I think voters will remember from this debate.  So let's go through them, shall we?

Coronavirus - If it was not for the Coronavirus, I think Trump would be headed to a typical comfortable Presidential re-election,  especially after his electoral standing actually improved after his Impeachment (a la President Bill Clinton). But the Coronavirus has cast great doubt from many on Trump's ability to lead through crisis.  Hence, Trump has always been reactionary regarding criticism of his leadership here and it has cast a dark cloud on his Presidency.  However, in my view Trump had the strongest defense of his leadership on Coronavirus.  Trump recognized the seriousness of the issue, talking about the progress being made in finding vaccine/therapeutics, protecting vulnerable populations and expressing optimism of getting the pandemic behind us.  Biden, as expected, blamed Trump for the unfortunate malaise that has resulted the pandemic, saying that it's time to change leaders with someone with a real plan instead of a naive cheerleader like Trump.  Trump was able to fight off the charges to what believe a draw by saying that Biden's plan is basically his plan, that Biden is doing Monday morning quarterbacking regarding initial reaction to the virus and illuminating Biden's failed leadership fighting the H1Ni swine flu.  He also brought up the economic and social damage lockdowns have brought to NY. Biden, in a rebuttal I think he regrets, cited NY as a model on how to address the virus.  Trump, seeing this teed up opportunity, brings up that NY has highest number of Covid-19 deaths in the nation.  

However, the following was the defining statements of this section of the debate:



In short, Biden is advocating a cautious, reactionary strategy against the virus.  A strategy that advocates to restrain behavior.  That would be a strategy where the government dictates liberties in one's behavior based on "expert" opinion.   Trump, on the other hand, is advocating a more risky, aggressive strategy against the virus.  A strategy to develop a 'new normal' in the way we live as they find ways to attack the virus.  It is clear nowadays that there is a growing number of individuals experiencing "Covid fatigue" and want pandemic live to just be over.  They want  a life where they can gather together, work (the opportunity to work) and travel freely and be able to have solid life structure with their kids in school without being excoriated by their government.  I think Trump's defense and strategy here may actually stemmed the bleeding he had on this issue.

Race - Trump had, by far, the best defense of his record on racial relations by emphasizing his accomplishments to help open up opportunities for blacks while demonstrating that Biden has actually closed opportunities for blacks.  By talking about his accomplishments in criminal justice reform, minority economic opportunity, investment in Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) Trump clearly demonstrated he has more tangible affirmative accomplishments in the advancement of minority opportunity than any President in multiple decades.  Additionally, he emphasized Biden's only major accomplishment that affected race relations, criminal justice reform in 1994, actually put more young blacks in jail due to its harsh penalties on minor drug offenses.  Biden did not a a strong rebuttal on this point, only vaguely saying he tried to reform the drug offense penalties.  He was more interested in attacking Trump's personality and attitude regarding race, saying he "pours gasoline" on racial dialogue. However, I think the fact Biden called Abe Lincoln a "the most racist President in modern history" referring to Donald's comparison to Abe Lincoln showed he really had no substantive answer on how he would try to improve racial relations outside of having a more meek personality.  In short, this section showed a great contrast between Trump, a man attempting and accomplishing moves for positive action, against  Biden, who can only criticize but doesn't really have answers himself.
 
Hunter Biden's emails - Actually one of the most memorable moments of this debate happened before the debate.  Just like in 2016, Trump hosted a guest that cast doubt on the character of his opponent.  This time that guest was Tony Bobulinski, a former business associate of Hunter Biden.  Bobulinski testifies that the Hunter Biden's emails regarding questionable business activities with a Chinese company are authentic, plus he has more first-hand evidence himself to provide that supports the idea that the Biden family participated in multiple illegal schemes. At the debate, Trump pressed Biden about these emails.  Biden says he did nothing unethical and eventually went on to say the whole charge is based on "Russian disinformation."  This is an odd defense to make an hour after someone directly alleged they were real and they have the receipts to prove it.  How much this hurts Biden remains to be seen, but it could be easily seen how this hurts Biden's "better character" argument by raising his unfavorables.

Insider vs. Outsider - One of the most memorable moments of the whole debate was when Trump drew the contrast between him and Biden in regards to getting things done.  The video in the tweet below demonstrates that contrast.

As a viewer, I immediately saw how Trump succinctly made a successful argument that Biden was a politician that gives many promises, but has delivered few results. This happened after about hour of Trump touting his accomplishments in a number of areas. A very shrewd move by Trump that was highly effective.

Body Language - In the first debate, Trump went very aggressive in both his approach, constantly interrupting Biden when he was trying to answer.  While such an approach may have been effective in some ways, many came away thinking Trump just cannot control himself from imposing his strong personality to intimidate his opponents.  

Hence, in this debate, Trump took a much more mellow approach.  He was much more respectful in both engaging in his dialogue as well as his body language when listening to Biden's responses.  Occasionally he would give that a look of disapproval, but it was a vast contrast from the first debate.  I thought that was quite effective because it demonstrated that Trump can in fact control his emotions and personality to act more "Presidential."  

Biden, however, acted quite the opposite.  When he disagreed with something, his reactions were very visible.  When he was defensive, he had that "deer in the headlights" look or visible disgust (oh G*d).  However, it was clear Trump was wearing out Biden throughout the debate after I saw this:


The last Presidential candidate that looked at his watch during the debate was President George HW Bush (Bush 41).  Let's just say that election didn't end well for him.

Fracking - No issue has hurt Biden more than fracking.  Biden, who like his running mate, Kamala Harris, said during the primary that he would eradicate fossil fuels and fracking.  Has during the general election stated he wouldn't ban fracking.  With that in mind, the following clip has put some doubt in the sincerity of that pledge.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas.... I think many voters in those states saw him say that.  I'll just leave it there.

So in the end, I think Trump didn't hurt himself through this debate and perhaps helped himself by demonstrating memorable contrasts with Biden.  However, we will see how much, if any, effect this debate has on the final outcome.  If we know anything, a week is a long time in politics.

In my next blog, I will provide a guide of what I'll be looking for during Election Night as well as where my electoral map is currently.  Until then, it is what it is....

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