As we head toward the final stretch to Election Day, I want to share what I'll be looking for on Election Night. I'm going to base this off when the polls are closing.
6 PM: New Hampshire/Florida/Georgia/North Carolina - We should be seeing trends fairly early on how long the night will be.
New Hampshire should be one of the first to show a trend and perhaps the first to make a call. If Biden wins New Hampshire, I will be looking to Florida to see if it's truly going to be a long night. If Trump wins New Hampshire, it would be a signal that his Get Out To Vote (GOTV) operation is working well, plus it's likely that NH's GOP Governor Chris Sununu has been re-elected.
Florida is has been the bellweather state that in the winner of Florida has won last 6 Presidential elections. In fact, the only winner of FL that has not won the Electoral College since 1960 is Bill Clinton in 1992. So FL is quite the strong predictive result. I think it's so predictive because FL has so many migrates from the Midwest and the Rust Belt, so it's a reflection of that whole region. So it's obvious the winner will be the overwhelming favorite to win the election. There are three areas of Florida I will be looking for trends:
- Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach Counties (SE FL): these areas are where Biden needs to run up about 2 to 1 margins to have any chance to win. If it's 55/45 Biden coming out of these counties, we're likely to see an earlier call as usual for Florida for Trump. Trump has actively tried to make inroads with Cubans/Venezuelans preaching freedom from Socialism to close the gap with Hispanics in that area. The success Trump has in that area will largely be dependent on the GOTV of these Hispanics.
- I-4 Corridor: These are the counties along the I-4, which stretches from Daytona Beach to Tampa. The counties are a combination of strong democratic areas around Orlando surrounded by GOP tilting areas. It's an area that has a lot of votes. By default, Biden should be the favorite here since Orlando is a large population center to pile up votes. However, Biden needs to win 53% of the vote there, along with his 2-1 margin in SE FL to feel good about winning the state. If Trump wins here outright, it's likely he's going to win FL by at least 2%, a comfortable margin in recent Presidential election history for FL.
- Gainesville/Jacksonville (NE FL): NE FL is an area close to my heart, since I consider it my home away from home. It combines liberal Gainesville (home to the University of Florida) surrounded by conservative areas and moderate GOP tilting Jacksonville. Whoever wins these areas will demonstrate who clearly has the stronger GOTV effort.
The candidate who wins two out of three of these areas will likely win FL. If the candidates draw in the combined vote in these areas, Trump will likely win as the FL Panhandle (i.e. Southern Alabama) will come in largely for him.
If Biden wins FL, the election is over and it's probably going to be a short night. If Trump wins FL, he's likely going to win NC and GA and it's on to the 7 pm poll closings. Historically, the margin of the victory in FL is predictive of results in states such as MI and PA.
But for this guide's sake, let's assume Trump wins FL to lead through the rest of this guide.
7 pm : Michigan/Pennsylvania: Assuming Trump wins FL/NC/GA, it's on to the Rust Belt.
Pennsylvania: I will look for three different areas in PA:
- Bucks County (Philly Suburbs): Trump needs to split here to have a chance. He'll have to do it by winning working class voters in the north side of the county and hold his own with the working professionals on the southern half bordering Philly.
- Erie County (NW PA): A working class county on the shores of Lake Erie, it's been a Democratic leaning county for decades, voting for the Democratic Presidential candidate from 1984 until Trump won it in 2016. If Trump wins this county again, it would show that he's getting his low-intensity blue collar base out to the polls here and would signal good things ahead for him. if Biden wins Erie by 5 percent or more, he's likely going to win PA.
- Luzerne County (NE PA): Another working class county that's been Democratic leaning for decades. In 2016, Trump was the first GOP Presidential candidate to win Luzerne since 1988 with 58% of the vote, the largest since Richard Nixon in 1972. A big issue in this area is energy and fracking, a pillar of its local economy. Hence, this area will be telling if Biden's recent statements on "transitioning" out of oil and gas has strongly worked against him.
If Trump wins these three counties, he's probably going to win PA. If Biden wins Bucks or Luzerne by 15% or more, he's probably going to win PA. It is really that simple.
Michigan: I really just look at two different areas in Michigan:
Detroit/Ann Arbor: This is really where Biden needs to run up the score to win. He needs to get his minority vote, particularly Blacks, postgraduates and Zoomers out to the polls. Hillary Clinton failed to do so in 2016 and we all know who won Michigan (hint: it wasn't Hillary Clinton).
Macomb County: a populist leaning Detroit suburb, this will simply be a barometer if the enthusiasm for Trump is enough to bring his supporters to the polls. He won Macomb in 2016 he'll need to win it again by over 10% (he won by 11% in 2016) to win the state again.
At this point in the evening, if either candidate has won FL and one of these states, the election is probably over. But if we have any more suspense, it's on to the 8 pm poll closings.
8 pm: Wisconsin and Minnesota
These two states, both worth 10 electoral votes, will probably be quite tight and perhaps will be the deciding states in a very close EC race.
Wisconsin: The key to reading Wisconsin is based on ability for Trump to maximize his vote in the WOW counties ( Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) that surround Milwaukee and the blue collar vote in NW Wisconsin against Biden's ability to maximize his vote in Dane county (University of WI) and Milwaukee (especially the Black vote). Whoever gains a greater share will likely win Wisconsin.
Minnesota: Republicans have not won MN at the Presidential level since Richard Nixon in 1972. But like Nixon, if any Republican is going to win MN, it's anti-war populist like Trump. But it'll be a tough haul. Biden has an inherit advantage in that more than 60 percent of state population is in the Minneapolis/St Paul metro area. So for Trump to win MN, he'd have to maximize his vote on the I-94 corridor between Minneapolis to St Cloud, sweep western and southern MN and most importantly increase his margins in NE MN from 2016 (he won the 8th Congressional District by 18%). The way he increases his margins in NE MN is to improve his results in St Louis County, where I grew up. Hillary Clinton won St Louis County by 12% in 2016. Trump will need to flip St Louis County if he wants to win MN. He may be well on his way to doing so, as 6 Democratic mayors in the blue collar Iron Range have endorsed Trump, which is unheard of in my lifetime. If Trump wins the MN CD 8th district by 25 or more points, he'll probably be in good shape to flip the state.
Anecdotally, I wanted to see if there was actually the enthusiasm and effort in the GOPs efforts to win Minnesota. Hence I attended a pre-debate rally last Thursday in Prior Lake, MN. Here's the proof I attended (trust me, I took the photo).
Minnesota: Republicans have not won MN at the Presidential level since Richard Nixon in 1972. But like Nixon, if any Republican is going to win MN, it's anti-war populist like Trump. But it'll be a tough haul. Biden has an inherit advantage in that more than 60 percent of state population is in the Minneapolis/St Paul metro area. So for Trump to win MN, he'd have to maximize his vote on the I-94 corridor between Minneapolis to St Cloud, sweep western and southern MN and most importantly increase his margins in NE MN from 2016 (he won the 8th Congressional District by 18%). The way he increases his margins in NE MN is to improve his results in St Louis County, where I grew up. Hillary Clinton won St Louis County by 12% in 2016. Trump will need to flip St Louis County if he wants to win MN. He may be well on his way to doing so, as 6 Democratic mayors in the blue collar Iron Range have endorsed Trump, which is unheard of in my lifetime. If Trump wins the MN CD 8th district by 25 or more points, he'll probably be in good shape to flip the state.
Anecdotally, I wanted to see if there was actually the enthusiasm and effort in the GOPs efforts to win Minnesota. Hence I attended a pre-debate rally last Thursday in Prior Lake, MN. Here's the proof I attended (trust me, I took the photo).
At this point of the evening, we should be well aware where the election is trending. It may take a couple days, but it should be somewhat clear who will win the election. Frankly, I think it'll be a pretty clear win the way things are trending.
On to my map with a week to go:
- Biden's public flip flopping on fracking and doubling down on "transitioning" out of fossil fuels added fuel to the enthusiasm to Trump's base in northern PA and areas around Pittsburgh.
- Trump is investing much time there, with large crowds and growing enthusiasm. He's drawing a great contrast to Biden in demonstrating greater vigor, alertness and likability. Additionally, have the local news coverage at these rallies provides a social acceptability channel for "shy" supporters who have been intimidated from showing their support for Trump, motivating them to be bolder in their support enough to come to the polls.
- Biden has been going to areas where he should have had high enthusiasm already, including Bucks County. In fact, he brought Jon Bon Jovi to a rally there, with not very encouraging attendance or results.
Joe Biden just called those who don’t vote for him “chumps” and then coughed into his hand in the middle of a pandemic pic.twitter.com/jWyadSj9QP
— Caleb Hull (@CalebJHull) October 24, 2020
I don't think recent riot activity in Philly has helped enthuse his base either.
Over the weekend, I'll provide my final map as well as some final comments. Until then, it is what it is.
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