2012 Twins Season Preview and Predictions

I have news to report. As many of you know, I do have a high interest in the Minnesota Twins baseball team. Each year, I urgently wait to hear from Nostrawongamus, a self-described prophet of sporting events and teams, prediction on the Minnesota Twins upcoming season. Up to last year, the results have been impressive.

Here’s what Nostrawongamus said in 2008:

"So what's my final prediction on the success of the team. Without the drum roll, I'll stick my neck out on the line and say this team will win 85-90 games this year. Yes, you heard that right. I'm predicting 85-90 wins for the 2008 MN Twins. I believe this team will go deep into the playoff chase into September, but will fall short of the wild card."
 


Result: Twins win 88 games and lose to the White Sox in AL Central tiebreaker game.

That was quite impressive, but recall 2009:

“Therefore, I predict that the Twins will win between 86 to 93 games this season in a really tight AL Central race. However, if the bullpen holds up like I think it will and the Twins remain relatively healthy, I think they will win the division title.”

Result: Twins win 87 games and beat the Tigers in the AL Central tiebreaker game.

His prediction in 2010 wasn’t too far off the mark, either:

“Therefore, I predict that the Twins will win between 89 to 94 games this season in a relatively tight AL Central race. However, if the bullpen holds up like I think it will and the Twins remain relatively healthy, I think they will win the division title and perhaps make the ALCS.”

Result: Twins win 94 games and win the AL Central title.

So going into last season, I was feeling pretty good about Nostrawongamus’s prediction when it came in:

“I’m predicting between 85 and 90 wins for the Twins this season, but they will NOT make the playoffs this season”

Result: The Twins did not make the playoffs alright, but losing 99 games was something Nostrawongamus or anyone else didn’t see coming.

So I was wondering if I was going to see Nostrawongamus was going to swallow his pride and supply his prediction for the upcoming Twin season. After much angst of anticipation, I received a note from Nostrawongamus. Here it is:

Hello Eric,

I have not heard much from you recently. I again didn’t see you once again in Florida this year. Your absence has made my job tougher as I have had to rely on other means to get my observations for the upcoming season. As I reflect on the disaster of last season’s prediction, I admit that my sources are not as intrepid as you are in providing information on the Minnesota Twins. Therefore, I blame you as the main reason why last year’s prediction was so far off outside of the playoff prediction. Now I could just demur from providing any prediction for this season since you didn’t provide me any insights in the last month and you certainly didn’t come to Florida to see me. But being a man of great mercy, I’ll provide my prediction for the upcoming year. I’ll just say you better come next March or you may not be getting any predictions from me.

So here’s what I see for the upcoming Twins season.

Infield: Recall last season I stated this following concern about the infield:

“I don’t see this season’s middle infield combination of Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka performing much better or consistently as it did (in 2010). This combination may be faster on the base paths and in the field but I have real concerns about them offensively and their ability to stay healthy. Both players have not proven to be consistently able to stay healthy as well as to perform consistently through a whole major league baseball season. I’m thinking the Twins will need Trevor Plouffe, Matt Tolbert and/or Luke Hughes to perform well for stretches of time in order to provide the necessary offensive and defensive output needed to be a season-long contender. Injury concerns also arise with the M&M boys, 1^st baseman Justin Morneau and catcher Joe Mauer. It has taken Morneau over seven months to recover from a concussion, which makes one wonder if he can perform the same way as pitchers try to bust him inside offensively to make him think about it. Catcher Joe Mauer is still recovering from knee surgery, which for a catcher should be a concern who’s been in the league more than 5 years. “

Unfortunately, I was generally right, per usual. I admit I expected bigger things out of Danny Valencia and was greatly disappointed and the bench was literally a disaster since Plouffe, Tolbert and Hughes didn’t come close to expectations either. However, I’m notably more positive regarding the infield this season at least offensively. I feel that the signing of Jamey Carroll was a solid signing for a functional, stable shortstop that can make the routine plays and get on base. I do have concerns that the Twins expect him to play more than 130 games this season, but I think Luke Hughes can ably fill in for him or anywhere else in the infield and not see a huge drop-off. I also expect a little more consistency out of Casilla this season also, but the key for him is just staying healthy. His inconsistency generally stems from his inability to stay healthy. That’s also true for the M&M boys, although I’m thinking they both will come back rather strongly this season. However, I think Morneau will be primarily a DH for large stretches of the season as I see Chris Parmalee emerge as a legit power threat and a functional 1B to add pop to the offense. I also see a significant offensive upgrade in Ryan Doumit as a backup to Mauer, which means not as a significant a drop-off when Mauer’s not in the lineup. However, although I expect significant rebounds from the M&M boys, I’m less certain of an offensive rebound from 3B Danny Valencia. Although he appears to have worked hard in the offseason, I’m not sure he’s going to significantly improve, which is significant for a lineup looking for right-handed power. If the M&M boys, Valencia and Parmalee drive in 250 to 300 runs between them, this will be a potent offense.

Outfield: This year’s group will be in constant flux, especially in right field. LF is set at Josh Willingham. He may be function power threat that could hit 30 homers this season, but he’s just on par with below-average defensive outfielder due to his lack of range and ball tracking skills. CF Denard Span should have a strong comeback season coming back from a concussion and will be the best defensive outfielder on the team this season. RF is where the mystery begins. Trevor Plouffe moving out there from the infield should be a benefit to him as he’ll probably notably increase his power numbers if he plays more than a 100 games out there. However, his defensive ability is unproven. Ben Revere has the most defensive range of any outfielder, but he also has the weakest outfield arm in the outfield. While I’m intrigued by his speed, I’m concerned by his lack of ability to consistently get on base to add value to the lineup. Also, Parmalee and Doumit are options for an occasional play in RF, which would be a great bolster to the offensive punch the bench can provide. In conclusion, I think the outfield will be average to above average offensively, but notably below average defensively.

Bullpen: An area of great concern from last season and the area with the most turnover. Question marks abound regarding the closer, middle relief and right handed setup man. Matt Capps comes back as the closer after a very difficult season last year where he was consistently being booed by the hometown crowd. I’m confident that he’ll be a functional closer this year since I think his forearm injury last year really hurt the command of his pitches due to the mental effect of his injury. Glen Perkins provides an able Plan B if needed; as he’s already proven that he can be a dominant 8^th inning setup man for long stretches. After those two, there will be a lot of turnover that I am confident will be better than what many think, yet not dominant. Jared Burton and Matt Maloney have much to prove this season to show that they are not simply journeyman pitchers. I’m more confident that Burton, who has impressed this spring, can prove to be a real value find for the Twins this year. I think of him as a harder throwing version of Matt Guerrier if he stays healthy. Jeff Grey and Anthony Swarzak will provide not spectacular, but adequate middle relief help and Brian Duensing will prove to be a valuable utility reliever. So if Capps returns to the 2010 form and setup guys Burton, Duensing and Maloney prove to be adequate, I think they will greatly contribute to notable success in the win-loss column.

Rotation: Last season, I had great confidence in this group coming into the season. This season, I think there are five question marks coming into the season. However, I do have some confidence that they will be marked improvement over last season, which was an utter disaster due to injury, inconsistency and very bad defense for a pitching staff that tries to pitch to contact. Carl Pavano was the most consistent pitcher last year, yet his stats weren’t great because the defense behind him was so terrible. I think he’ll do better this season since it’s a contract year for him and I do expect marked improvement from the infield defense, which will improve his stats. Francisco Liriano is the most talented pitcher on this staff and I think he’ll prove it this season since he appears to have changed his approach from being slider happy and actually try to throw more fastballs in pitcher-friendly counts. Being a contract year for Liriano doesn’t hurt the mindset either. When healthy, Nick Blackburn can prove to be an innings-eater that keeps his team in the ballgame. Scott Baker also has great stuff, but his consistency and ability to stay healthy concerns me. Jason Marquis is a value pickup that’ll at the high end have Blackburn-type stats and at the low end look like Carlos Silva. In short, I see Pavano and Liriano leading the staff with 13 or more wins, Blackburn and Baker with 11 or 12 wins and Jason Marquis with about 10 wins. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Liam Hendriks comes in and takes Baker’s or Marquis’s spot in the rotation. In all, not an overly impressive staff, but they will be markedly improved from last season.

So here’s the batting order:

1. Span
2. Carroll
3. Mauer
4. Morneau
5. Willingham
6. Valencia
7. Parmalee
8. Plouffe
9. Casilla
   

And the starting rotation:

1. Pavano
2. Liriano
3. Blackburn
4. Marquis
5. Baker
   

So here’s the final tally to the big questions:

Will the Twins be playing in the playoffs? No, although they will be in the hunt in September.

How many wins for the Twins in 2012? My optimism has grown through the spring. I’m bold enough to say the Twins will win between 79 to 86 games. That’ll probably be good enough for 2^nd place in the AL Central.

Now I absolutely need to see you in FL next March or you’re not getting another prediction from me.

Nostrawongamus

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So there you have it folks, Nostrawongamus’s predictions for the Twins 2012 campaign. I’ll just say that his wins prediction range is a whole lot narrower than Twins pundit 1500 ESPN Twin Cities Phil Mackey, whose range seems quite wide for someone whose job is to follow this team.