Tuesday, February 9, 2016

My New Hampshire Primary Predictions

So my Iowa caucus predictions were about 60 percent correct (be kind).  I guess I'll give my shot at New Hampshire.

Democrats:

Sanders by less than 10 percent

I just find it odd after all these years where the GOP was know for have old white men as their nominee that this time one around the Democrats will have a nominee that is already eligible for Social Security at full retirement age. However, that's what we have. I predict Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire by less than 10 percent, which Hillary will frame as a win since she has been projected to lose by 15 plus percentage points for much of the race.  It's all about perception.

Republicans:

Trump/Kasich/Rubio

The Donald, despite all the moments of perceived crassness (cussing at rallies and not showing much meekness in dealing with Jeb Bush's charges of the Donald's abuses of eminent domain, will win the primary by a clear margin and leave New Hampshire with the momentum.  Marco Rubio, who had momentum through his performance in Iowa, has taking on water for appearing overly coached in repeating his answers regarding President Obama's foreign policy.  I find that interesting that a Republican is being criticized for repeating his answers because the last Republican President was well known for repeating his answers quite often ("You are with us or you are with the terrorists", "the soft bigotry of low expectations", etc.).  He looked well positioned to take 2nd before Saturday night's debate, but I'm thinking John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, helped himself the most from the debate and put in much more time than pretty any other remaining contender in the state.  So Kasich will come out with some momentum as well while Rubio will be wounded, but not as badly as many think he is.  I will say Bush and Cruz will finish close together for 4th while the rest of the field (Ben Carson, Chris Christie, et al.) will have to really consider how much longer they will stay in this race.

So in short, here's what I think will happen in the GOP primary tomorrow night:

Click for Video

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