Election 2020: Small Things Make a Big Difference

So we're in the final week of September and I currently don't see any change in the electoral map from last week.

As it can be seen, there's a ways to go in this election.  Based on this map, MN would be an arguable tipping point state in this election.  Based on my analysis last week in MN, I could really see Trump being the first GOPer to win MN since 1972.  I argued that if he could do better with working-class, non-college graduates, especially in NE MN (i.e. Duluth and the Iron Range) he could do so. This theme applying to other battleground states (OH,WI, MN, PA) would have a similar effect.   So I was quite pleased to see that the Cook political report provided a "Swing-O-Meter" to do some sensitivity analysis on how demographic changes in the electorate changes the election outcome.

For example, currently the default map on the Swing-O-Meter is this

But now let's assume the following:

Trump's share of white, non-college grads goes from 69% in the above map to 70% and their turnout goes from 55% to 57%.  Here's the effect:

A pretty marginal change can make a large difference, one that is quite plausible from my myopic opinion.  Now let's look the at if instead of the above scenario if Trump share of white, non-college grads goes down to 67% and Biden's lead amongst white, college grads goes from 54% to 55%

There's been much buzz in anecdotal stories that Trump is doing better with Blacks and Hispanics than 2016.  So to test if that really makes much of a difference, let's hold all the shares of the electorate and the White/Asian vote shares splits the same as the default scenario.  I then change Trump's vote share of Blacks from 8% to 11% and his Hispanic share from 28% to 33%.

I guess it would make a significant difference.  So as I said at the beginning, there's much to see yet for the rest of this election.  Small changes in the electorate will make notable differences.

Talking about notable differences, the first debate is this upcoming week.  While there are many who think that Biden's public appearances would portend to Trump easily winning the debate, I beg to differ.  Incumbent Presidents generally haven't done well in their first debates, especially over the last 40 years.  Outside of President Bill Clinton showing much more vigor than Bob Dole in 1996, the incumbents haven't done well.  

• President Reagan's performance had voters wondering if he was becoming senile.  

• President George HW Bush looked at his watch during the debate, not something you want to publicly communicate how you feel in front of the electorate.    

• President George W Bush looked quite tired, repeating the same line ("He (John Kerry) always changes positions").  

• President Obama looked quite out of sorts from Mitt Romney's attacks on Obamacare.   

Each debate notably boosted the challenger in the polls.  Now in all the situations outside of President George HW Bush, the incumbent President was able to recover in following debates to win re-election.  However, beware of the expectations.

So until next time, it is what it is.

Election 2020: An Ongoing Episode

As we pass mid-September, things are changing.  Kids are getting back to school in one form or another.  The leaves are changing color.  Football is actually being played across the country.  

But for many folks, the events that are gaining interest are the events affecting the 2020 election.   I've heard from folks the 2016 election was the strangest they ever experienced.  I'm wondering if a good number of them are thinking 2020 is even stranger than that with the impeachment, yet failed expulsion, of President Trump.  A COVID-19 pandemic which had effects not seen since the 1918 Spanish flu.  The pandemic caused politicians to shut down their local economies and has created distrust with public health officials and large segments of the public on how to protect public health.  I frankly never thought we'd think wearing a mask is a political issue, but it certainly is.  Now the latest news is whether or not to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacancy on SCOTUS.  2020 certainly has not been a boring year.

Hence, I've decided to provide some of my perspective on this year's election as well as a map of where I think the presidential election between President Trump and Joe Biden currently stands.  I'll attempt to provide these posts weekly and I would appreciate your comments (just keep them civil).   

Here's my current map of where the Presidential race stands.

In other words, this is a very close race at the moment.  The election will largely be won in the battleground states (MN, WI, PA, AZ).  Here's where I think each state's race is at the moment.

AZ: Much polling has shown Biden with an edge in this state.  However, I think the issue with much public polling is the way they are sampling voters.  Many surveys polls are either by cell or online panel.  That's a poll that looks straightforward to take if one is a professional who has some level of college/postgraduate education.  However for folks like my parents, who didn't go to college and really don't like using a computer outside of work purposes, are less likely to volunteer to complete a survey online or questions on a phone call because it's not a good use of time in his/her opinion.  The thing that 2016 proved is the latter is where Trump has his strongest support: working-class folks without a bachelors or postgraduate degree.  In AZ, as in much polling, I think too few of those folks took those polls to give an accurate picture, especially in Maricopa county, the state's largest county population wise.  My feeling is that Trump is up by 1-2 points there, but it's quite close.

WI: Biden is shown to have slight to moderate leads here.  However, while I think he's currently slightly ahead there, it's probably currently 2-3 points.  This gap can be closed by Trump doing better in the Milwaukee suburbs (with Kenosha, recall what happened there) and maxes out in Northern WI north of Madison and Milwaukee.  

PA:  Biden is shown to have slight to moderate leads here as well.  However, while I think he's currently slightly ahead there, it's probably currently 2-3 points.  This gap can be closed by Trump doing better in the Philly suburbs (notably Bucks County) and maxes out in Western PA.  If Trump wins Bucks County, Biden better do better than Hillary did in 2016 or he probably loses PA without any corruption.  I don't suspect there will be any notable shady behavior, but in 2020 we've seen the unexpected more than once.

MN: Biden has shown to have lead here as well.  But I think the polls are underestimating Trump's strength outside of the Twin Cities Metro.  In 2016, Trump lost St Louis county, where my hometown Duluth is the county seat, by 14 points, yet lost the state by 44K votes.  That means Trump did much stronger in the rest of the outstate than the normal GOPer.  That's the truth (he won the 8th Congressional district, which includes Duluth, by 18 points, the 7th district (Western MN), by 30 points and the 1st district (Southern MN) by 15 points.  Regarding St Louis county, 7 Iron Range Democratic (DFL) mayors have come out in support of Trump due to his work on opening up mining in the area and his trade policies towards China.  I also think Trump is more natural cultural fit to folks in the Iron Range by the way he communicates and emphasis on culture wars (abortion, antiwar, etc).   So I wouldn't be surprised if Trump expands his margins in the 8th district.  And by my travels lately through the 7th district recently, Trump will probably have at least 30 percent margins in the 7th.  Biden needs to rely on strength in the Twin Cities Metro and in Rochester/Duluth to pull him over the line.  Currently I think Biden is leading by 1-2 points, but it's going to probably depend on Get Out To Vote (GOTV) on who wins here.

Till next time, it is what it is....

 

Florida and Georgia Trip Observations

Last week, I went to Jacksonville, Florida for some business travel.  I made a few observations from my trip:

-  The airlines are really hurting.  On both plane rides on my roundtrip to and from Florida, each passenger had their own row.  Everyone had to wear a mask on the plane.  It was actually a somewhat depressing sight.

- The terminals are pretty empty.

- In Florida, life seems to be much more active than in Minnesota.  Many folks are outside walking around.  While it was the first week of Phase 1 of Gov. DeSantis's re-opening plan, fast food restaurants were still strictly drive-thru and delivery.  I did see some restaurants have some outdoor seating, but it was lightly attended late afternoon.

- I did walk through St. John's Town Center, the large outdoor mall in Jacksonville though and see that while stores could start opening, store operators were cautious.

- Since Jacksonville is about an hour from the GA border, I decided to make a run for the border and get a haircut.

The barber who greeted me at the door asked me a couple questions about how I was feeling and took my temperature.  I gratefully passed and was led down this marked path to a sink to wash my hands.

While the lady was cutting my hair, I learned a few things:

 - The barbers are all part of the same family: husband, wife and children all cut hair.

 - They all wore masks when cutting hair.

 - They didn't receive any help from the government or any financial institution.

 - It was really a no brainer for them to re-open, even though they received many complaints that they shouldn't from others in town.  They really wanted to have the ability to gain their lives back.

 - She really appreciate that the family had the choice to re-open.  I said that folks had the choice to come or not.  I also said that many folks don't take into account what steps the barbers are trying to take to protect their reputation.  She appreciated the support.

So in all it was an enlightening trip.  Life is coming back to different parts of this country.  Once citizens have the ball in their court to make decisions, the question of confidence in the decisions will ultimately dictate how quickly life will return to the expected normal.

Musings on Covid-19

It's been awhile since I posted, but I want to share my observations regarding the current status of the Covid-19 pandemic in America. It's only one man's opinion, but this is based on my experiences working with both in the public policy and healthcare business world from a data analyst perspective (I have an Masters in Public Policy, Masters of Business Administration and have worked for businesses that have assisted those in public policy and healthcare).

- From the data I’ve seen and the arguments I’ve heard (including from the Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde, who states Sweden’s strategy IS NOT herd immunity), I have the following observations and opinions:

- The models were initially informed by misleading information from China, who were not transparent to any outside institution, the World Health Organization (WHO) included.

- As we learn more about the spread of the virus, it appears that it clearly affects specific populations the most: the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

- It appears now that the virus was probably present in the US well before any travel ban was in place since we are a country that takes in a large amount of international travelers.  Thus we probably had community spread well before any cases were reported.

- Those models informed us to take draconian measures to slow down the spread, which it did.  However, the spread is most prevalent in denser areas with a high use of public transit.  This trend, along with being a favored spot of international travel, made NYC a prime candidate to be an utter hotspot, which it became.

- However, with the data that has come in since those models have been created.  The revisions suggest that we can now adjust policy towards easing the restrictions based on the facts we have learned here: that the lack of testing early (Jan/Feb) on put the US behind the spread of the virus initially (there was an extensive article in the WSJ this past week that describe how HHS Sec Azar screwed up the development and scaling of the testing in January/February, which is probably why you haven’t seen him the last few weeks), that we know what types of areas are most prone for spread, the physical distancing measures effectiveness, and which populations are most vulnerable to mortality by this virus.

- Hence, I think we can now rely more on the direct data we’re currently receiving on the ground to determine where and how we can start re-opening  parts of society.  With wider availability of testing, we can more easily detect who had the virus, who has the virus and contain and isolate those folks from them who would be most vulnerable.  We should not dictate the pace of re-opening by the number of new cases now that this is more new testing, but by the number of hospitalization and the rate of increase/decrease.  Tens of thousands of health care professionals in MN alone have lost their jobs/furloughed due to unused medical facility space cleared out to expand capacity for COVID patients.  I think the hospitals now have a good idea of how much time it would take to re-open that space if needed.  Thus they should allow those folks go back to work for non Covid related procedures.  And let the dentists go back to work.

This pandemic has really affected us all.  I know folks that are out of work.  My 70-year old mother struggling to balance protecting herself while keeping her restaurant open. Similar situations are many.  Anxiety, boredom and stress are quite common in many households.  But these times allow us time to seek proper perspective.  What can we really control?  Many of us can't control what happens at our job and at our homes outside of our personal decisions. For me, I let the Almighty take control of what I can't control.  It's a day by day process for me and for at least many of you.  Hang in there and try to focus that we're not truly alone if we seek a helper in situations.   

Midterm 2018

We're hours away from Election Day 2018.  This midterm election has attracted much interest, vituperation and voter participation than any election I can remember.  Typically, a midterm election has lower energy and voter participation than a Presidential election.  This year is unique.  In the 2014 midterm election, about 76 million folks voted.  In this current midterm election, it's projected over 100 million folks will vote. 

Much of this increased engagement on both sides surround the amount of emotional reaction that President Donald Trump provokes from the electorate.  There's not really a middle ground for many when it comes to the opinions of the President.  Every day appears to be a grudge match over the different forms of media.  

In each midterm since World War 2, the President's party loses an average of 32 seats in the House of Representatives his first midterm election.  Since the Democrats need 23 seats to gain the majority in the US House, the average would like mean Speaker Pelosi rises again. However, I get the feel that this election is not a typical midterm election due to the emotional issues during this campaign, particularly around the Justice Kavanaugh confirmation chaos and immigration.  Both issues stirred up high emotions on both sides. I think these issues help the GOP more in the Senate than in the House since Senate races are much easier to nationalize than House races. However, there is so much energy for both sides that it's difficult to decipher where the momentum is currently heading. However, I will say that this certainly doesn't feel like the wave elections of 2006, 2008 or 2010.  I simply think that while there has been much money poured into both sides of this campaign, the closing arguments on both sides are actually pretty weak.  

Therefore, I think this election will ultimately come down to the quality of the candidates in each race and the effects of President Trump campaigning over the final month.  I have to say, for a 71-year old, President Trump can really show a lot of energy in multiple places when he campaigns.  As a campaigner, he's one of a kind because he elicit strong emotions with his provocative, yet simple statements.  Many pundits say that the President's message alienate millennials and suburban women, especially when he talks about immigration.  Well, I'm not so sure about that because I feel those groups are concerned about issues of security and rule of law.   Plus, how apt are those groups are to vote in this election compared to other groups.  I hear folks saying that millennials are 3 or 4 times more likely to vote than in 2014.  Well, that was a low turnout election (37% total voter turnout, 76 million votes cast) and how does that compare to other groups in what looks to be a high turnout election?  I really don't know.  I also hear about the "education gap" that the GOP is having in that college educated voters are much more likely to vote for Democrats, perhaps by a 3/2 margin.  I don't know what the gap really is, but I do know that about 60% of the country do not have a college degree.  So it really depends on the turnout of each of those groups.

So what's my final prediction.  I'll get right to the chase:

Senate: GOP gains 3 seats for a 54-46 margin.  This will be a huge win for the President since it'll allow him to perhaps accelerate his nominations confirmed in both his Cabinet and the judiciary.

House: It's a tough call, the GOP will lose between 15-27 seats.  Either way, the majority for either party will be less than 10 seats.

The wait is nearly over.  In the end, we will get the government that we deserve.

A Trip Out West: Day 2 - Richard Nixon Presidential Library

Friday morning I traveled a shorter distance (about a 45 min trip) to Yorba Linda, California to visit the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, the 5th Presidential Library that I have visited.  I guess this is odd for a individual my age, for a couple docents told me that only geriatric folks generally have visited as many at my age.  

A smallish man of statute

Was told that the lawn is used throughout the year for receptions and weddings

President Nixon was a Duke Law grad.  What that had to do with his ethics I'll let you decide.

"I want Putin!" 

What I found interesting about this rendition of the Oval Office was that it was quite sterile.  It didn't have portraits of any previous Presidents, just one of a young General Washington over the fireplace.  As you can see, the desk is large with nothing in the bottom middle.  That's because he generally had someone across from him typing away or doing other work.

For a President who was in office for only 6 years, Nixon appointed 4 SCOTUS Justices: Warren Burger, Harry Blackmun, Lewis Powell and William Rehnquist.

Model of the Cabinet room.

Vietnam was a big issue when Nixon got into office

A copy of the daily casualties report Nixon received. Prompted Nixon to expedite efforts to end the war.

Nixon did spend a week in China opening up relations with them.  My dad always recalled that to me.  Makes one wonder if there's parallels to current times...

A short history of tape recording in the White House.  Taping had been going on since FDR.  Nixon removed all recording equipment, but re-installed it after he found the notetakers inhibiting his conversations.  Instead of having recording selected meetings, Nixon wanted everything to be recorded for his future memoirs and historical record.  However, Watergate scuttled that idea much like Haman building the gallows in the Book of Esther.

Much emphasis on Watergate

 The copy of the proclamation of Nixon's pardon

Pat and President Nixon gravesite

Nixon's birthplace, which apparently was a "kit home" that was bought from a catalog and put together in pieces.

For a man known to have quite the foul mouth, Nixon did have some words of wisdom.

A Trip Out West: Day 1 - Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

Wednesday night I traveled to LA to stay with my cousin for a couple days, primarily to watch a football game of his beloved University of Southern California Trojans.  However, I said that since I've gained momentum this year visiting Presidential libraries (Hoover and JFK this year) that we should go ahead and visit the two in southern California while I'm there.  So we left early Thursday morning (LA traffic is always terrible) to head to the Simi Valley to visit the Reagan Presidential Library

After about 2.5 hours in traffic (for about 80 miles), we finally arrived!

This library is the largest of any Presidential library I've visited.  It starts with this Spanish Courtyard when you walk towards the entrance.

"Glad to meet you, Mr. President!"

"Pleasure to meet you too, Mrs. First Lady!"

This Library is a very large complex, hanger pavillion the left side, library in the middle and memorial (not seen) on the right.

This library didn't focus too much on Reagan's life before politics.  There were relatively small sections about his upbringing, his interest in theatre and broadcasting and his movie career.  But things really begin to focus regarding his political career, from his work for Governor of California onward.

Reagan did write in a journal using very good script.

Do I look like a contender?

A large plane

A bit cozy inside

Chopper

Motorcade setup, interesting how vehicles change over the years

"Tear down this wall!" Yes, it's the actual Berlin Wall.

Not a bad view

The entire Brandenburg Gate speech

That famous section of that speech. Interesting how the pregnant pauses are inserted.

On the way out, we saw that history continues to be created.

The Reagan Library had a unique environment, presentation and experience. It did not shrink back on emphasizing Reagan's belief in mainstream conservative beliefs of smaller government, lower taxes and cutting regulations.  As I reflected on the way back into town, I was further convinced that Reagan had many similarities to the current President. Let me list them off:

• Both were notable media personalities before they entered politics;
• Both have had multiple marriages and multiple reports of infidelity against them;
• Both are known for their communication style, although they are different;
• Both advocate for the shrinking of the administrative state and lower taxes;
• Both have had strong political support from Christians, although neither is known for their churchgoing activity;
• Both became President at an older age; 
• Both are known for advocating space-centered national defense technology; and
• Both are known to have great political drive to get things down, especially in the area of international affairs. 

History is an interesting thing, just like this visit.