It's Been Awhile

Since I saw the timestamp for my last post was May 17, I thought I probably should provide another post.  Well, there have been some things that happened since my last post:

- A this time last year I was unemployed looking for a job after my contract at Ecolab was not renewed.  But looking back at it, it was for best.  The Almighty led me through this whole sequence and it was surely a test of faith and spiritual growth.  My belief is that the Almighty led me through it to show me that I need to trust him and not lean on my own understanding 

"Trust in the Lord with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding. In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths." - Proverbs 3:5-6

I always wanted to work at Ecolab and the opportunity came. I prayed and believed that the Almighty provided what I wanted and I should take it. Well, it didn't go as well as planned and lasted only 8 months. But the Almighty blessed me with only being out of work for 5 weeks and I was definitely busy during that time.  I reached out to contacts either passed along to me or I had prior network relationships.  I was blessed that data analytics is a very hot field these days with quite the labor shortage.  About a week after the 4th of July I got a call from a recruiter Prime Therapeutics who said that there is a new position in their marketing area that needs a experienced data analyst and they wanted to talk to me.  I was hired shortly thereafter.  I thought my resume where I've been at 4 jobs at 3 years would be a detriment. Not in this case, my boss said he looked at resumes for this job where candidates had 20 years of experience at one company and said it wasn't enough variety.  He looked at mine and immediately said he wanted me because of the "variety of experiences with very established companies."   I've been there since late July, it's been a blessed experience.

- I have actually done new things since my last post.  The biggest change is that I've joined a boxing gym.  Yes, you heard that right. I am a member of a boxing gym.  Need proof?  Here are my hand wraps:

Here is my membership access card:

I was drawn to trying out boxing through a Groupon offer (2 weeks for $12).  I went to three workouts the first week. I found the workouts quite efficient: 15 minutes cardio, 30 minutes doing combos on the heavy bag and then 15 minutes of core work.  I was sore and soaking from sweat after each workout.  But the soreness decreases as I got more used to the workouts.  So I got an offer from the club to join and waive the $149 enrollment fee.  I checked in at work and found that I can get between $45-$55 of monthly rebates if I attend the club regularly.  Even more an incentive is that the club is located 5 minutes from work and they have a 6 am class, which allows me to beat traffic on I-494 (yay!).  So I have joined the club and I have to say it's an enjoyable sweat.

- To the election, I have to say that the race between the Donald and Hillary will be one that is made for 21st century entertainment. As of today, I still give Hillary a 60/40 chance of winning this race.  However, the Donald can still win this race due to three main factors:

1) Based on polling, most are saying the country is going in the wrong direction and would like change.  Hillary is campaigning on doing more of the same basically.

2) World events, particularly the growing global reach of ISIS, has created greater unease on national security issue.  Given Hillary's record on Iran, Benghazi and creating instability in Libya and Syria, national security doesn't seem to be a strong area of hers, even though she would say it is.

3) Hillary is a terrible campaigner.  She struggles closing out races because she's very untrusted, unlikable (especially to men), lack of charisma and just bleeds corruption.  Whether it's Wall Street speeches, addressing her husband's infidelities or her alleged actions in funding the Clinton Foundation, Hillary is not a candidate without heavy baggage.

However, to win the Donald has to do three things that hasn't proven he can do yet in this campaign:

1) Build a solid campaign apparatus.  The Donald ended May with $1.3 million in hand.  I don't care if he was funding his own campaign or not, that's not good.  He also lacked ground game, data analytics, media strategies and state organization to run a national campaign.  He's obviously been working on that the past couple weeks.  But he's certainly needs a lot of work here.

2) Pound a disciplined message.  The Donald gains attention by making polemical statements.  However, the Donald has been unable to continue on a coherent, consistent message that focuses on Hillary for more than 2 or 3 days at a time.  Instead, his statements generally come back and refocus attention on the Donald's temperament.  If the Donald took a page out of the George W. Bush playbook and deliver a consistent, simple message folks can understand, he'd be much better off.

3) Increase his GOP base support.  Polls show the Donald generally behind 3-7 points.  However, those same polls show that at least a quarter of the GOP electorate doesn't support him.  If the Donald could find a way to increase his GOP support to 85-90%, he'd be in very strong position to win this election.  How could he do that, check #2.

So there's my take on the election.  Am I still not voting for the Donald?  That would be a true statement.  Who will I vote for?  Stay tuned.

My View of the Election in May

It's May and it's clear that despite whatever some may say, we know what the Presidential General Election matchup will be: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton.  So I may be talking for many voters when they look at this matchup: has it come down to this?

Well, the answer is yes it has come down to these two and one of them will be the Leader of the Free World.  As of this moment, I would give Clinton a 6 out of 10 chance of winning the election.

However, this is May and many things will happen between now and November. Especially after we've seen the surprisingly shrewd political instincts of the Donald over the past year compared to the slow reactionary political instincts of Hillary Clinton, can anyone really say there is no doubt that the Donald has a real chance of being President of the United States?  Can anyone who has seen Bernie Sanders, the 74 year old Socialist, define the debate and put Hillary Clinton in defensive mode the past month really doubt that the Donald, a man who has defined the debate and every one of his rivals in the GOP primary, can do the same in the General Election?  In short, this will be a close, perhaps ugly election.

But as one who has stated not to support the Donald in the General Election, I do have an idea for him.  I have read that the Donald seeks to make this year's GOP convention a more entertaining experience:

"Trump blasted the GOP’s last convention, in Tampa four years ago, as “the single most boring convention I’ve ever seen.” The billionaire real estate mogul and reality-television star said it was imperative that this year’s gathering have a “showbiz” quality — and he cast doubt on the ability of the Republican National Committee, which oversees the convention, to deliver.

“It’s very important to put some showbiz into a convention, otherwise people are going to fall asleep,” Trump said in a 45-minute interview here last week in his Trump Tower office. “We don’t have the people who know how to put showbiz into a convention.”"

Well, in light of hearing the word "showbiz" from the Donald, I don't necessarily think "The Apprentice." I think of this:

So with that vision in my head, I put on my analytical thinking cap.  It has been talked about that the Donald is going to bring swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio into play by appealing to and motivating blue-collar, union working white males 35-54 to vote for him in notably higher numbers than for any GOP candidate in the past several elections.  I thought about this and came across this:

""I don't want to be in the ring with any candidates, I want to be Trump's running mate," (Hulk) Hogan said, referring to the businessman leading the Republican field."

Well, with that knowledge, may I suggest this song as the Donald walks out to accept the GOP nomination and provide his acceptance address:

Just think of those blue-collar, white males reaction after hearing lyrics such as 

When it comes crashing down and it hurts inside
you gotta take a stand it don't help to hide
if you hurt my friends then you hurt my pride
i gotta be a man
i cant let it slide

I would say that the convention will just go wild. Just think about that.

A Change I Can Believe In

The past couple of weeks have brought real change into my life.  The biggest change is that on May 5 I was driven to the Whiting Clinic in St. Louis Park to have LASIK corrective eye surgery.  

LASIK is something that I've been considering for years.  My sister Georgia had the surgery done over a decade ago and have raved about the results ever since.  I have had reservations about having though. My eyesight is very bad: it's a mixture of nearsightedness and strong astigmatism.  How bad was my eyesight?  I was diagnosed with having 20/2000 vision (not good at all).  So bad that each opinion I received until recently ended with a recommendation that I shouldn't have LASIK.  Which was ok with me because it allowed me a rationale to not do it when my family kept asking me to have it done.

However, this year I received an opinion that I could have PRK done, which is a corrective procedure that would correct my vision to 20/20.  However, the doctor told me it would take a couple months to fully feel comfortable seeing again.  I decided to get a second opinion from Dr. David Whiting, one of the most reknowned LASIK surgeons in the country.  He told me that he felt very comfortable performing all-laser LASIK (no blades) and that I would be able to drive the next day.  Well, I prayed and consulted multiple folks about this decision, including Georgia.  When I asked Georgia who she had perform her LASIK, she said Dr. Whiting and said he's the best in the area.  So I decided to go forward with it.

I will tell you that going through the surgery it was a surreal experience.  Here's a video of what happens:

I have to say after the doctor numbs my eye and I see this all happen in front of me, sticking objects in and out of my eye and smelling smoke as they shoot the laser through my eye, I don't think I'll live through such an experience again.

It's been about two weeks since that procedure and my vision is so much better. The doctor who examined me after the procedure said I had 20/15 vision when both eyes are together.  It's quite the change indeed! All provided through the Almighty's provision.

Check In Time

I guess it's been awhile since I last posted.  Life has been busy in multiple ways. Work and travel has been on the agenda.  One weekend I traveled to Florida for fun in the sun and baseball and then two weeks later I'm in Denver spending time with my sister Georgia.  But enough about my life, it's pretty boring stuff.

What I'd like to bring up is the fact that I've come to realize that we're probably on the eve of knowing that we're about to have two very unpopular individuals running against each other to be President of the United States.  The Democrats have decided that Hillary Clinton, the one we've seen in the national spotlight over the last 25 years, is their candidate.  This is despite the fact that Hillary embodies the qualities of the liberal intelligentsia that many on the Left rally against.  She's backed Big Business, foreign wars and has used her political influence to benefit herself in reputation and financially.  But despite all that, she's going to win the Democratic party nomination and by all accounts is favored to be the next President of the United States as of early May.  

On the Republican side, it's taken awhile, but it's clear that the Donald is on the cusp of accomplishing one of the greatest political feats in my lifetime in going from a man many considered to be running for President as publicity stunt to becoming the GOP's standard bearer from President.  I have to say while I don't agree with much of what the Donald says, he's certainly proven to show that he has very shrewd political skills in reading the electorate, defining the political debate and defining his opponents. The Donald has over the last 9 months crushed political dynasty candidates like Jeb Bush, Tea Party favorites such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Establishment standard-bearers like John Kasich.  I have found it fascinating how quickly he can change the narrative.  Like a month ago the Donald gets crush by nearly 20 points in Wisconsin to Ted Cruz and it looks like we're headed to a contested convention since Cruz's firewall in Indiana, Cruz had the comfort a state that had embraced his brand of cultural conservatism.  Yet hours before polls open, the Cruz campaign has come to this:



Oh well, on to the general election.  

Random Musings

I'm currently in Denver visiting my sister and her husband and (cough, cough) attend a Wild hockey game.  Wild I have some down time here I think I should take some time to put some thoughts together.

- This trip to Denver has illuminated me to the idea that the legalization of marijuana certainly has it effects.  My sister and others have told me that the past couple years property values in Denver have gone up a great amount since the majority of voters decided to legalize marijuana.  The guy next to me on the plane was saying he was looking forward to his joint after he got off the plane.  Public policy really has it's affects.

- I read an article from the Washington Post citing the findings of a study that more intelligent folks have fewer friends. Most folks are generally happy the more interactions they have with their close friends.  However, "more intelligent individuals were actually less satisfied with life if they socialized with their friends more frequently."  I guess I don't know how intelligent I am now.

- I have to say my thoughts on the GOP nomination battle are the same: the Donald in commanding position, yet not clearly on a path to roll to the nomination. Events on the ground are fluid, sometimes unsavory.  I also feel these just general great dissatisfaction out in society now, yet not a general consensus on what should be done about it.  So much so that the candidate that I voted for in 2012, Libertarian Gary Johnson, received 11% of the vote (a very high third party number) in a recent poll.  These are interesting times.

- By the way, have you seen my colleague Peter and my Twins Preview yet?

Happy Easter!!!

2016 Minnesota Twins Preview

It's that time of year again.  The 2016 Major League Baseball season is upon us and you know what that means. The highly anticipated (somewhat acclaimed)  Minnesota Twins season preview.  This season we changed the venue a bit.  Enjoy!

Super Tuesday Deux

I'll just say that this election is the strangest one in my lifetime.  All conventional wisdom has gone out the window, especially when it comes to confronting the success of the Donald.  The GOP "Establishment" appears to be at a loss:



I have to say, if all you have to say is "all he has is a lot of votes" that says quite a bit about what the GOP "Establishment" is thinking these days.  They simply were not ready for the political shrewdness of the Donald.  They were not ready for a candidate who could effectively channel a notable size of the electorate's anger at the federal government, the politicians and the status quo and state that he can be their bully against them.  They were not ready for a candidate who knows how to connect with the angst of blue collar Americans regarding their own future and the future of the country.  They were not ready for a candidate who knows how to define the debate and his opponents as deftly as the Donald.   So now we have hit this point of the campaign, where rhetoric is getting heated and GOP candidates who earnestly stated 6 months ago that the Donald should support the GOP nominee at all costs through signing a pledge of allegiance now say they have to reconsider supporting the Donald if he is the GOP nominee.  Where folks are quick to state the Donald has the support of the Ku Klux Klan, when ironically it's the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who got the endorsement of the KKK's Grand Dragon .   These are simply interesting times.

So what to make of tomorrow.  It will be a defining day indeed.  Here's my predictions:

Florida - the Donald wins by around 10 points.  It's lights out for Marco Rubio and the most interesting part of this race is what Marco will say in suspending his campaign. Make that 2 vanquished Establishment candidates.

Ohio - I'm torn on this one.  Every conventional indication is that Ohio Governor John Kasich should win here.  However, these are not conventional times.  Connections to the establishment are deleterious in this campaign and Gov. Kasich not only has many connections to the establishment, but also flaunting those connections, including Mitt Romney.  I still think Kasich wins here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Donald has a late surge to pull it out, especially if he can energize blue collar types to get to the polls, which he has been very effective in doing.

Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina -   Unlike Florida and Ohio, where the winner gets all the delegates, these states award them proportionally.  I think this will split in the following way:

the Donald 90
Cruz 77
Kasich 20
Rubio 6

At the end of the evening, the Donald will have a commanding lead, but not enough of one for inevitability to universally kick in that he'll be the GOP nominee. Buckle your belts, it'll be a bumpy ride.

Democrats

Something that's intriguing to me for all those who say that Hillary would crush the Donald is that Hillary can't really even crush socialist Bernie Sanders.  If one takes away the superdelegates, whom will give Hillary the win eventually, she's only beating Sanders by a score of 750 to 540,  that gap is largely due to her crushing Sanders in TX, GA, LA and MS. I see tomorrow being more of the same:  Hillary struggles to put Bernie away.   

Hillary wins FL, MO, NC

Bernie wins IL, OH

As Paul Harvey would say: Good Day!