Sunday, September 4, 2016

Election Musing

If anything, this election is not dull:

- The Donald spent the week criss-crossing North America in quasi-international summits, black churches and large rallies talking about issues ranging from immigration to issues within America's inner cities.  I thought his visit to Mexico City to visit with the Mexican President was largely a success.  The visual of him standing side by side with a foreign leader of a country most consider as an important diplomatic relationship was very good for the Donald since it allowed folks to actually visualize him as a possible President doing presidential business.  

However, the evening speech he made on immigration was very different, although policy wise it made much more sense than his past rhetoric.  The Donald's policy was really an emphasis of enforcement first with vagueness on what to do with the remaining undocumented, yet nonviolent, immigrants. The idea of a deportation force coming in and deporting undocumented immigrants who have contributed to society for years just sounded like an expense and logistical nightmare waiting to happen.  But the rally setting quite overshadowed the substance of the speech.  I don't think it'll hurt him electorally as many think, but I don't think it'll gain him as much traction amongst moderate Republicans and independents as it could have if he gave the same address at a policy think tank.

Here's the most interesting visual of the campaign for me:



I'll just say that Dr. Ben Carson should consider my church's protocol regarding use of electronic devices during service; a myopic opinion as well as suggestion.

- Hillary apparently has not really been seen much in August. She'll make a staged speech every couple weeks and then go on fundraising (a staggering $143 million in August).  However, after starting the month in very strong position with leads as large as 15 percent in some national polls, her lead has shrunk substantially since then.  The reason, the Donald has been able to change the focus of the campaign less towards the Donald and much more towards Hillary.  The drip, drip, drip of the emails from both Hillary's private server, her connections with the Clinton Foundation while as Secretary of State and her lack of candor regarding her involvement in such matters have really started taking a toll on her image and electability. She's not exactly inspiring folks to vote for her at this moment.   

 The most interesting part of the latest news regarding the release of FBI summary notes (there is no audio) of their interview with Hillary was not that she didn't know that 'C' meant "classified" or she could not recall when she got security training, but that she had THIRTEEN ELECTRONIC DEVICES that were lost or destroyed after saying she only wanted to have a private email server to be able to use only one device.  Apparently her rationale is that she only was using one device at a time, but how does that explain all those Blackberries and IPads destroyed with a hammer?  Yikes.

Despite the latest news, I don't see any changes in the electoral map as I still see Hillary comfortably winning.  However, I'm thinking more states will be in play for both sides that they didn't expect.  For Hillary, I see states such as Michigan and Wisconsin coming more into play.  Being one that visits NW Wisconsin about once a month, I can see the Donald gaining strength there currently.  But for the Donald, he should start being concerned about states such as Georgia, Arizona and I've seen very close polls in South Carolina.  In short, this race is still very fluid because since the states in play are very similar, changes in one state will probably effect other surrounding states very quickly.  But here's the map:



Till next time....

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