Turning the Corner

We've hit another phase in this election season and I guess I know two things:

1) The race for the GOP Presidential nomination is more of a soap opera than the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

2) The GOP establishment has been defeated.

Perhaps it's just my myopic thinking, but I'm just fascinated by how the race for the GOP has unfolded.  Each day proves to make this race more and more unique.  First, we have the Donald breaking all rules of political correctness and conventional campaigning to surge to a strong lead for the nomination.  I'm saying as of this moment he has 75% chance of being the nominee. If the Donald wins all 165 delegates in the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio a week from now, move that number up to 95%.  Currently, I clearly doubt that the Donald won't be the GOP nominee.  I know that there are those who say that if the Donald ends up going one-on-one with Ted Cruz that Cruz can make the race quite interesting, I just don't see that happening.  Let's assume that Rubio and John Kasich drop out after next Tuesday so we end up with the Donald against Cruz.  Well, I think the Donald would be a heavy favorite.  Not only would he probably have a large delegate lead to begin with, but look at the states that Cruz would have to win to keep in the race: NY, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Arizona, New Jersey, etc.  Not exactly the electorate that favors his brand of conservative politics.  So it's clear to me that the Donald is in a very strong position.

Second, we see that every candidate the "Establishment" has supported has been crushed by the Donald.  Initially, the Establishment gets behind Jeb Bush as their candidate.  Well, the Donald effectively defined him as a timid, Country Club politician who is the brother of a failed President.  So after Jeb leaves, the Establishment gets behind Marco Rubio, the man elected as a Tea Party insurgent.  The Donald belittles "Little Marco" as a weak candidate that acts like a child. Rubio, in response, resorts to a vituperation contest with the Donald as well as trying to tell his supporters they have been duped.  Not exactly the best way to gain support for a enervating campaign.  It certainly doesn't look like Rubio is long for this race.

So what does the Establishment do?  The latest event is that the 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney goes on a ad hominem attack against the Donald, stating he's a phony and a fraud that he cannot support.  I find it interesting that the political elites think that calling supporters of the GOP frontrunner that they don't like as naive and uninformed is their way of trying to convince them to not support him. I'll just say that if Romney was better candidate in 2012 that the Donald wouldn't be where is now. 

So with Hillary Clinton well on her way to the Democratic nomination, it appears we're headed towards a clash between the Donald and Hillary.  I know many think that Donald with his high disapproval ratings and his incendiary rhetoric against Mexico and China would get crushed by Hillary. Now as one that will not vote for the Donald (I guess I agree with Mitt et al there) I just don't see that as a sure thing.  

Sure, it could happen, but I could just as easily see the Donald crushing Hillary.  Hillary is a flawed candidate who also not only has high disapproval ratings and is not trusted by large swaths of the electorate.  She also has the cloud of uncertainty of legal action around her as well as not being able to inspire the electorate, especially large swaths of the Democratic base.  Just look at the turnout numbers in the nomination process, the GOP turnouts are growing and the Dems are shrinking.  

If the Donald is able to connect the way he has with blue-collar professionals, both union and non-union, I can see the Donald being very competitive in states that Republicans have not won in decades like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as in a stronger position in swing states such as Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.  I hear about the high disapproval the Donald has with Hispanics and I agree that could be a problem for him.  However, not many bring up the fact that there are elements of the African Americans community that feel threatened by Latinos growing influence in society and I'm not just talking about Trayvon Martin.  Plus, the Donald is not a conventional politician and Hillary struggles against opponents that play outside the conventional political box.  I think Hillary would be a favored candidate in such a race, but I wouldn't count out the Donald.

So I'm off to Florida to watch Twins baseball and some relaxation this week.  So until later, take care.

Super Tuesday

This election year is utterly different from any other I've lived through, specifically on the GOP side.  It's truly the year of the outsider where Donald Trump continues to prove that the public that he has greater political skill than anybody realized, especially 8 months ago.  

Many in the "establishment" appear vexed about how the Donald is doing so well.  It's quite simple for me to understand. The Donald has proved adept at simplifying issues and getting the electorate passionate about them, specifically immigration, trade with China and overall dissatisfaction with the status quo.  Yes, I'm intrigue how a man who says the following is currently riding great momentum through the GOP primaries:

However, the Donald is able to get voters passionate about issues in a way that make his supporters quite loyal to him.  Additionally, the Donald is perfect rebellion candidate.  Tired of political correctness? There's no question the Donald is politically incorrect. Tired of the old leadership in DC that gave us Iraq, Katrina, the 2008 Great Recession and Obamacare?  The Donald rails against Iraq, incompetent leadership and Obamacare. The Donald simply knows how focus voters attitudes towards simple concepts. 

Another thing that really strikes me about the Donald is his ability to define his opponents and utterly defeat them playing mind games with them.  He calls Jeb Bush timid and a poor candidate.  This causes Jeb Bush to go from the intelligent sounding policy wonk to a man trying to be aggressive when he's not that way.  The Donald questions Ted Cruz's veracity, which allows others who don't like Mr. Cruz to do the same and illuminates the Cruz's campaign dirty campaign tactics.  This made "Trusted Ted" much less trusted.  In the past week he calls Marco Rubio "Little Marco" insinuating that Rubio acts like a child. How does Rubio react?  He basically is trying to convince voters to vote for him by telling them that the Donald "wet his pants" and that they are being duped by a con man. Not exactly a way an adult likes to be talked to when someone is trying to change their mind.

Now the Donald is racking up endorsements from all types of folks. If someone told me that a candidate was getting endorsements from Chris Christie and Jeff Sessions, I'd be thinking "Big Tent" candidate, not the Donald.  He's even receiving endorsements from interesting places:

Si j’étais américain, je voterais Donald TRUMP… Mais que Dieu le protège !

— Jean-Marie Le Pen (@lepenjm) February 27, 2016

Le Pen is the leader of the National Front, the French Nationalist, anti-immigrant party.

Alas, I guess I need to make a prediction.  There are 15 states voting on Super Tuesday that are giving delegates out proportionally.  So here's my delegate breakdown:

Republicans:

The Donald 285 delegates
Rubio 175 delegates
Cruz 100 delegates
Kasich 10 delegates
Carson 5 delegates

Oh, the Democrats are voting too?  Well, this race is coming to a quick end:

Hillary 700 delegates
Sanders 165 delegates

Enjoy (or not) the evening.  

Nevada (R) and South Carolina (D) Predictions

This race just keeps on going with strange twists and turns.  Good news for me is that I was correct about the order of the South Carolina GOP race.  Bad news for me is that I didn't foresee how barking in public can endear a candidate with the Democratic electorate.  So I guess I'll try to do better this time.

South Carolina (D)

I admit it, after I watched Hillary Clinton bark like a dog at a campaign rally, I was feeling the Bern.  I was wrong about judging the Democratic electorate in Nevada at least.  But I have no doubt that in South Carolina Hillary will surely roll to victory.  A senator from Vermont just doesn't play well in a southern state with a large African-American population.  Clinton, with a big "firewall" win in Nevada, will keep the momentum going and unlike what Bernie Sanders says, the wind is really at her back.

Nevada (R)

South Carolina was a "Yuge" victory for the Donald, who continues to display shrewd political skills I did not know he had in his ability to focus on, simplify and get folks emotional about specific issues or matters (Immigration, trade with China, taking on the Pope in a Protestant state, anger at status quo, etc.) to roll to yet another victory.  Don't believe me, just watch:

So now the Donald goes into Nevada, a state where his background as a casino owner and local business owner (he owns a hotel in Las Vegas) should play quite well.  The only question is will his lack of a ground game cost him votes in a caucus situation and who will come second to position themselves to be the prized alternative to the Donald.  As of now it looks to me that Ted Cruz's base is too narrow (Christian evangelicals) and he's not exactly doing very strong with them (he had fewer votes than the Donald) and Rubio is quickly gaining support from establishment  Republicans.  As the worm turns, stay tuned.

The order:

The Donald
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
Carson

Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions

So there have been two contests in two states and two very different results.  The idea of a quick an orderly nominee selection process for the two major parties appears less certain by the week.  Alas, here are my predictions for Saturday's contests

Nevada (Democrats):

Many things have changed in the past eight years, but one thing remains the same:  Hillary Clinton is a terrible Presidential candidate.  Instead of having great difficulty with a first-term senator who's motto was "Change you can Believe In,"  Clinton is having great difficulty with a 74-year self-declared socialist whose motto is "A Future you can Believe In."  After getting whipped in New Hampshire, Clinton and Bernie Sanders are neck-and-neck in Nevada.  To illustrate Clinton's difficulties, one only needs to see this video:

After seeing moments like this, I am feeling the Bern... Bernie wins Nevada.

South Carolina (Republicans):

Another South Carolina primary, another bloodbath of political rhetoric.  Accusations of lies between the candidates and former President George W. Bush, photoshop pictures, lawsuit accusations, etc.  But this race can be defined by three things: 

1) The Donald's ability/inability to proper temperament in the political pressure cooker;
2) Ted Cruz's attempts to accuse his opponents as inauthentic conservatives, true or not;
3) Marco Rubio's sudden surge in momentum, boosted by the political decline of Jeb Bush and the endorsement of SC Gov. Nikki Haley.

So with those things noted, it should also be noted that the Donald has had a substantial lead in the polls all week until the last day or so (in some polls).  Here's how I see this race ending up:

Trump (by less than 7 pts)
Rubio
Cruz
Bush
Kasich
Carson

After this evening, there'll be great pressure for Carson and Bush to exit stage right.

As the Donald may say:

My New Hampshire Primary Predictions

So my Iowa caucus predictions were about 60 percent correct (be kind).  I guess I'll give my shot at New Hampshire.

Democrats:

Sanders by less than 10 percent

I just find it odd after all these years where the GOP was know for have old white men as their nominee that this time one around the Democrats will have a nominee that is already eligible for Social Security at full retirement age. However, that's what we have. I predict Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire by less than 10 percent, which Hillary will frame as a win since she has been projected to lose by 15 plus percentage points for much of the race.  It's all about perception.

Republicans:

Trump/Kasich/Rubio

The Donald, despite all the moments of perceived crassness (cussing at rallies and not showing much meekness in dealing with Jeb Bush's charges of the Donald's abuses of eminent domain, will win the primary by a clear margin and leave New Hampshire with the momentum.  Marco Rubio, who had momentum through his performance in Iowa, has taking on water for appearing overly coached in repeating his answers regarding President Obama's foreign policy.  I find that interesting that a Republican is being criticized for repeating his answers because the last Republican President was well known for repeating his answers quite often ("You are with us or you are with the terrorists", "the soft bigotry of low expectations", etc.).  He looked well positioned to take 2nd before Saturday night's debate, but I'm thinking John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, helped himself the most from the debate and put in much more time than pretty any other remaining contender in the state.  So Kasich will come out with some momentum as well while Rubio will be wounded, but not as badly as many think he is.  I will say Bush and Cruz will finish close together for 4th while the rest of the field (Ben Carson, Chris Christie, et al.) will have to really consider how much longer they will stay in this race.

So in short, here's what I think will happen in the GOP primary tomorrow night:

Click for Video

My Iowa Caucus Predictions

Here are my Iowa caucus predictions:

Democrats:

Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley

Unless the Democrats start thinking about Clinton's emails question are a significant issue, I think Hillary pulls it out.  Especially since school is in session and college students need to go back home to caucus.

GOP

The Donald/Rubio/Cruz

The Donald supporters are mainly new, emotionally charged, caucus goers and are hard to predict what degree they show up.  But I think enough of them show up for The Donald to claim victory in a tight three way race.  Cruz has taking on water the last 72 hours as he has been exposed as a thin-skinned politician and a political opportunist by Rubio, Rand Paul amongst others. It appears that despite a much weaker canvassing effort, Rubio is gaining momentum, mainly from Cruz and Trump voters.  The Donald may win, but Rubio will have real momentum on his side heading to New Hampshire.  

Ben Carson and Jeb Bush will fight it out for 4th and who cares after that.

2016 Predictions

So 2015 is in the rearview mirror, it was quite the year with it's own memories.  For me it was a year of transitions, trial and growth.  I learned much about myself in 2015, both the good and the bad.  But through it all I feel I grew into a different man and hopefully a better one as well.

So now that 2015 is in the history books, it's time to think about 2016.  I thought I'd try to make some predictions for 2016.

1)  After attending three weddings in 2015, I will attend one wedding in 2016 and that's because I'll be asked to work in that wedding. 

2) The SG BUTR will experience changes in 2016, but will have the same number of members at the end of 2016 as it does today.

3) I will come close to achieving a significant life milestone by the end of 2016.

4) Donald Trump will not win the GOP nomination as he experiences a Howard Dean type meltdown a la 2004.  The Presidential Election will come down to Marco Rubio vs. Hillary Clinton and will be a bitter fight where the difference will be Clinton's experience and age working against her in combination with a slowing economy,  providing for a Rubio win.  The GOP will also hold on to Congress with the tailwinds of Rubio's success.

5) The Uber trend of cheaper cost taxi-type travel will drive consumers to demand even more automated version of transportation - robot controlled cars - by the end of 2016.

6) I will make predictions on how the Minnesota Twins and Minnesota Golden Gopher football teams success in 2016, with 50 percent success.


So there you go, my 2016 predictions.  Happy New Year!